WTPN32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 28.5N 154.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 154.9E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 30.5N 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 33.0N 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 37.0N 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 42.5N 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 154.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM NORTHWEST OF
WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE
FEATURE IS BECOMING RAGGED AND A 230647Z 37V GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE EYEWALL MAY BE OPENING TO THE SOUTH. TY 11W
HAS LOST SOME OF ITS INTENSITY IN THE LAST 6 HOURS; AS TY 11W MOVES
AWAY FROM FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A REGION OF
HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LOSE
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24, TY 11W WILL
ENCOUNTER AN UPPER LEVEL BAROCLINIC SYSTEM THAT WILL DRAMATICALLY
INCREASE THE VWS, BUT THE INCREASED DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE OUTFLOW AND LIMIT THE LOSS OF
INTENSITY. AFTER TAU 36, TY 11W WILL RAPIDLY UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AND ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND FALL
BELOW TYPHOON STRENGTH AND COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
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