ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[otowntiger]

Yeah, I guess you're right. Looking back at Bill and Ana, very early on they had them doing very different things than what they said later and of course what the storm did. I'm no pro but just looking at what I can see as the progged synoptic pattern, I can't argue with the concensus solutions we are seeing now from the models.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z ECMWF is more agressive on this system,Tracks towards Carolinas and then rides up the coast.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

One thing to note here is this was a big shift west from the last few days runs which had it east of Bills track..

[KWT]

Why is everyone talking about recurve, from what I'm seeing we have a system that is heading WNW and with no real reason to stray from that path at least in the next 24-36hrs barring the GFS idea of it heading NW from pretty much this hour.

We shall see but I'd put higher odds on it at least brushing the outer Banks then a recurve...

[KWT]

Yep and its something to watch very closely IMO because its possible we could end up seeing some slight further west adjustment.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

SHIPS still making it a hurricane and so this one certainly needs watching, there do seem to be some comprasions to Bob in 1991.

If you are somehow right, I feel like I need to watch this like a hawk

Had some hurricane force gusts from Bob, and wind damage even up here to (what is now) my property; trees knocked over, driveway washout (a stream runs along the back of my house), lost a few shingles & some siding. As such I hope your wrong KWT.

[Sanibel]

There's the ULL flare-up to the NW side and then there's convection center starting to curve up on the SE side.


This one is better developed than Claudette was at this point.

[otowntiger]

Why is everyone talking about recurve, from what I'm seeing we have a system that is heading WNW and with no real reason to stray from that path at least in the next 24-36hrs barring the GFS idea of it heading NW from pretty much this hour.

We shall see but I'd put higher odds on it at least brushing the outer Banks then a recurve...

Partly because many of the models that I'm seeing have it pretty much missing land, but I must confess, from a completely selfish standpoint, I get much less interested in a storm once it's clear it will miss Florida regardless of where else it may go to the point of erroneously calling it a re-curve if it misses Florida. Sorry.

[Sanibel]

That red IR center burst ain't ULL interaction.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I see inflow from the south. Not sure if that's a new development or not.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Is that a circulation? Looking at this will make you dizzy!

[carolina_73]

Looks good. I see they went to code orange. This could really explode once it gets further west into the Bahamas.

[gatorcane]

seems like there is nothing to move these systems W 60W westward as of late.

They develop and curve northward pretty quickly.

The Bermuda High is weak this year is the bottom-line.

[wxman57]

Nothing at the surface yet but a wave axis. Don't look for any potential LLC until probably Wednesday:

[dixiebreeze]

I'll bet at least a TD by 2 a.m. Wed.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

[KWT]

The thing is the models aren't that far away from Florida really, wouldn't take much westward adjustment and you've got a system strengthening right near Florida's doorstep.
Personally I don't think it will hit Florida of course but this clearly is a risk.

Also remember most of the models on the model image are based from GFS steerings, if its somewhat whack then a good 75% of those will be to at least some extent as well.

I think the ECM is probably going to be closest though I wouldn't be surprised if it recurves just a touch sharper then what it shows and maybe a tiny bit east.

[hcane27]

Looks good. I see they went to code orange. This could really explode once it gets further west into the Bahamas.

Just curious .... upon what meteorological basis are you making the claim of "explosion" in the Bahamas ??

['CaneFreak]

Well, I am going to disagree with all of you and say that this is not looking that good right now...just because there is a ton of convection does not mean that we have a developing system...60 % of the convection that is being fired right now is from UL divergence...very little of it is from low level convergence...the low level center raced out from underneath the convection today and is currently situated around 18.5 60.5 from my estimation...the flow in the low levels is too fast for this develop right now....give it 60 hours....then we'll talk about development....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... c/dlm1.GIF
Low Level Steering Flow

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=
The best convergence remains to the west of the deepest convection....right over where I placed the center....

Todd Ferebee
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

Also should be noted in terms of convection, whilst it is pretty explosive thanks a big part due to the ULL, its not that organised as all which backs up Wxman57 idea about no surface feature being present.

[Blown Away]

seems like there is nothing to move these systems W 60W westward as of late.

They develop and curve northward pretty quickly.

The Bermuda High is weak this year is the bottom-line.

Remember it's only August 24th, very likely the BH starts to show up come early September! BH always seems to get stronger come September, that's why Florida gets most of it's hurricane activity in September!

[storm4u]

Im starting to think i may see a good storm up here for once!

[Dean4Storms]

Hmm, won't take it till Wed or Thurs to develop a closed low if the convection continues to grow like it is currently. I know there are no signs of a closed low at this point, but we saw with Claudette how quickly that can change in an area of deep consistent convection. Amazing what some divergence aloft and some warm SST's can do to a weak wave!