ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Blown Away]

Well, I am going to disagree with all of you and say that this is not looking that good right now...just because there is a ton of convection does not mean that we have a developing system...60 % of the convection that is being fired right now is from UL divergence...very little of it is from low level convergence...the low level center raced out from underneath the convection today and is currently situated around 18.5 60.5 from my estimation...the flow in the low levels is too fast for this develop right now....give it 60 hours....then we'll talk about development....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... c/dlm1.GIF
Low Level Steering Flow

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=
The best convergence remains to the west of the deepest convection....right over where I placed the center....

Todd Ferebee
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

If that is the LLC near 18N/60.5W, 92L is going to have a tough road. Difficult to get organized when it's moving 20-25 mph.

['CaneFreak]

Hmm, won't take it till Wed or Thurs to develop a closed low if the convection continues to grow like it is currently. I know there are no signs of a closed low at this point, but we saw with Claudette how quickly that can change in an area of deep consistent convection. Amazing what some divergence aloft and some warm SST's can do to a weak wave!

Exactly...as I pointed out above...the low levels are simply too strong right now for anything to develop...I am looking for this to develop by Wednesday afternoon...

Todd Ferebee
HIRT

[The Eye Wall]

That thing just belched out a huge outflow boundary. Not a good sign.

[mpic]

Question I have is how long the weather over the SE US that'a keeping these storms east is expected to hold...all season?

['CaneFreak]

Well, I am going to disagree with all of you and say that this is not looking that good right now...just because there is a ton of convection does not mean that we have a developing system...60 % of the convection that is being fired right now is from UL divergence...very little of it is from low level convergence...the low level center raced out from underneath the convection today and is currently situated around 18.5 60.5 from my estimation...the flow in the low levels is too fast for this develop right now....give it 60 hours....then we'll talk about development....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... c/dlm1.GIF
Low Level Steering Flow

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=
The best convergence remains to the west of the deepest convection....right over where I placed the center....

Todd Ferebee
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

If that is the LLC near 18N/60.5W, 92L is going to have a tough road. Difficult to get organized when it's moving 20-25 mph.

That is exactly where I placed it...yes...it is going to be a rough road...and we still have a ULL in the way....

[Dean4Storms]

Looks good. I see they went to code orange. This could really explode once it gets further west into the Bahamas.

Just curious .... upon what meteorological basis are you making the claim of "explosion" in the Bahamas ??

I can think of 2, Warm SST's and an UL High!

[Dean4Storms]

Well, I am going to disagree with all of you and say that this is not looking that good right now...just because there is a ton of convection does not mean that we have a developing system...60 % of the convection that is being fired right now is from UL divergence...very little of it is from low level convergence...the low level center raced out from underneath the convection today and is currently situated around 18.5 60.5 from my estimation...the flow in the low levels is too fast for this develop right now....give it 60 hours....then we'll talk about development....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... c/dlm1.GIF
Low Level Steering Flow

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=
The best convergence remains to the west of the deepest convection....right over where I placed the center....

Todd Ferebee
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

If that is the LLC near 18N/60.5W, 92L is going to have a tough road. Difficult to get organized when it's moving 20-25 mph.

There is NO LLC, just a moderate Wave of low pressure! A Closed LLC could form under just about any deep and persistent convection within that wave!

[carolina_73]

You beat me to it. SST are cooking in that region. Looks like a nice window of light shear as well.

['CaneFreak]

Well, I am going to disagree with all of you and say that this is not looking that good right now...just because there is a ton of convection does not mean that we have a developing system...60 % of the convection that is being fired right now is from UL divergence...very little of it is from low level convergence...the low level center raced out from underneath the convection today and is currently situated around 18.5 60.5 from my estimation...the flow in the low levels is too fast for this develop right now....give it 60 hours....then we'll talk about development....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... c/dlm1.GIF
Low Level Steering Flow

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=
The best convergence remains to the west of the deepest convection....right over where I placed the center....

Todd Ferebee
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

If that is the LLC near 18N/60.5W, 92L is going to have a tough road. Difficult to get organized when it's moving 20-25 mph.

There is NO LLC, just a moderate Wave of low pressure! A Closed LLC could form under just about any deep and persistent convection within that wave!

True...I guess I was looking at an MLC...oops...sorry about that...we don't have a closed low yet...duh!!!

[Derek Ortt]

its not hard to organize moving at 25 mph. It is hard to organize when there is 60KT of shear nearby

['CaneFreak]

:uarrow: You beat me to it. SST are cooking in that region. Looks like a nice window of light shear as well.

light shear? Where?

['CaneFreak]

its not hard to organize moving at 25 mph. It is hard to organize when there is 60KT of shear nearby

sure it is...but the shear doesn't help...

[Derek Ortt]

no, any surface turning is well ahead of the convection. That is where to watch... if iut can survive the UL

[carolina_73]

Meant later on down the road. If it is still holding together by then.

[Dean4Storms]

:uarrow: You beat me to it. SST are cooking in that region. Looks like a nice window of light shear as well.

light shear? Where?

The shear drops off near the Bahamas if it makes it that far west.

[Derek Ortt]

have seen many TCs intensify very quickly when moving at 25KT.

the speed is not a problem at all if there is no shear

['CaneFreak]

no, any surface turning is well ahead of the convection. That is where to watch... if iut can survive the UL

Yeah...check my earlier post on page 4 Derek....see if you agree...the best convergence appears to be well ahead of where the deepest convection is located...

['CaneFreak]

have seen many TCs intensify very quickly when moving at 25KT.

the speed is not a problem at all if there is no shear

I agree but this doesn't even have a closed low yet ???

[Derek Ortt]

:uarrow: You beat me to it. SST are cooking in that region. Looks like a nice window of light shear as well.

light shear? Where?

The shear drops off near the Bahamas if it makes it that far west.

the UL must drop SW for that to verify. Looking at the WV... it is just not happening at the present time. Looks to be moving west with the wave and digging further to the south, but the whole thing is not moving SW

I'd still give this only about a 10% chance of doing anything within the next 36 hours... and that 10% is because I'm in a relatively good mood today

[george_r_1961]

Theres about 20kt of shear down there now. This would have to abate considerably for anything to take off.

Chances of development in the short term are less than 20 percent IMO.