EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO (12E)

[HURAKAN]

24/1800 UTC 16.0N 116.6W T2.0/2.0 93E -- East Pacific

At 2 PM PDT we should have TD 12-E

[HURAKAN]

577
WHXX01 KMIA 241850
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1850 UTC MON AUG 24 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932009) 20090824 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090824 1800 090825 0600 090825 1800 090826 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 116.7W 17.0N 118.2W 17.8N 120.1W 19.0N 122.3W
BAMD 16.2N 116.7W 16.9N 118.3W 17.8N 120.1W 19.2N 121.9W
BAMM 16.2N 116.7W 16.9N 118.2W 17.7N 120.2W 18.9N 122.3W
LBAR 16.2N 116.7W 17.1N 118.6W 18.2N 121.0W 19.6N 123.6W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090826 1800 090827 1800 090828 1800 090829 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.5N 124.6W 23.6N 128.9W 26.1N 131.9W 26.9N 134.6W
BAMD 21.1N 123.7W 25.7N 126.4W 29.5N 127.3W 29.9N 127.2W
BAMM 20.4N 124.5W 23.6N 128.5W 26.4N 131.4W 27.4N 133.5W
LBAR 21.4N 126.0W 27.1N 128.9W 34.2N 128.0W 36.8N 125.5W
SHIP 55KTS 48KTS 30KTS 15KTS
DSHP 55KTS 48KTS 30KTS 15KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 116.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 114.7W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 112.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Chacor]

No renumber file, but

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep122009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908241923
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
TWELVE, EP, E, , , , , 12, 2009, DB, O, 2009082218, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 3, EP122009
EP, 12, 2009082218, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1081W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 12, 2009082300, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1090W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 12, 2009082306, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1097W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 12, 2009082312, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1111W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 12, 2009082318, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1123W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 12, 2009082400, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1137W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 12, 2009082406, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1147W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 12, 2009082412, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1157W, 30, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 40, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
EP, 12, 2009082418, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1167W, 30, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TWELVE, D,

[HURAKAN]

585
WHXX01 KMIA 241924
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1924 UTC MON AUG 24 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE TWELVE (EP122009) 20090824 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090824 1800 090825 0600 090825 1800 090826 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 116.7W 17.0N 118.2W 17.8N 120.1W 19.0N 122.3W
BAMD 16.2N 116.7W 16.9N 118.3W 17.8N 120.1W 19.2N 121.9W
BAMM 16.2N 116.7W 16.9N 118.2W 17.7N 120.2W 18.9N 122.3W
LBAR 16.2N 116.7W 17.1N 118.6W 18.2N 121.0W 19.6N 123.6W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090826 1800 090827 1800 090828 1800 090829 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.5N 124.6W 23.6N 128.9W 26.1N 131.9W 26.9N 134.6W
BAMD 21.1N 123.7W 25.7N 126.4W 29.5N 127.3W 29.9N 127.2W
BAMM 20.4N 124.5W 23.6N 128.5W 26.4N 131.4W 27.4N 133.5W
LBAR 21.4N 126.0W 27.1N 128.9W 34.2N 128.0W 36.8N 125.5W
SHIP 55KTS 48KTS 30KTS 15KTS
DSHP 55KTS 48KTS 30KTS 15KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 116.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 114.7W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 112.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[bombarderoazul]

This could become ignacio.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 242033
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2009

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY. A CURVED BAND FEATURE HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED. ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE NOT BEEN DEPICTING A
WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ANIMATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOW BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED.
THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE AND SHOWS STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BY 48
HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26 DEG C SST
...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCING
AROUND THAT TIME. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS...SO IT IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS.

THE CENTER IS STILL NOT THAT WELL-DEFINED AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/9. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN U.S.
WESTWARD TO NEAR 125-130 W OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE TRACK
MODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL SCENARIO. A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION IS INDICATED BY DAY 5 AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
REDUCED TO A WEAK AND SHALLOW REMNANT DISTURBANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 16.3N 117.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 16.7N 118.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 17.4N 120.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 18.4N 122.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 19.7N 123.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 22.8N 126.8W 40 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 26.0N 130.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/1800Z 27.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

Should be Ignacio quite soon

[clfenwi]

25/0000 UTC 16.5N 117.2W T2.5/2.5 12E -- East Pacific

If TAFB concurs, we more likely than not have Ignacio.

[HURAKAN]

EP, 12, 2009082500, , BEST, 0, 168N, 1173W, 35, 1004, DB

Ignacio is here!

[HURAKAN]

807
WHXX01 KMIA 250054
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0054 UTC TUE AUG 25 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE TWELVE (EP122009) 20090825 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090825 0000 090825 1200 090826 0000 090826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 117.3W 17.6N 119.2W 18.6N 121.5W 19.9N 123.9W
BAMD 16.8N 117.3W 17.6N 119.3W 18.8N 121.3W 20.4N 123.3W
BAMM 16.8N 117.3W 17.5N 119.3W 18.5N 121.6W 19.7N 124.0W
LBAR 16.8N 117.3W 17.7N 119.3W 19.0N 121.7W 20.4N 124.1W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 48KTS 53KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 48KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090827 0000 090828 0000 090829 0000 090830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 126.4W 24.1N 130.6W 26.1N 133.7W 27.0N 136.7W
BAMD 22.4N 125.2W 27.0N 127.8W 30.4N 128.9W 30.7N 128.9W
BAMM 21.1N 126.4W 24.1N 130.7W 26.4N 133.9W 27.3N 136.5W
LBAR 22.4N 126.3W 28.2N 129.0W 34.1N 128.4W 36.0N 125.9W
SHIP 56KTS 45KTS 28KTS 0KTS
DSHP 56KTS 45KTS 28KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.8N LONCUR = 117.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 115.7W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 113.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250234
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2009

ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE CURVED BAND TO THE
WEST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED...SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE NOW T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM SAB. BASED ON
THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...AND THE
POSITION GIVEN HERE IS LIKELY A MEAN POSITION OF SEVERAL SWIRLS
ROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER. A 2056 UTC AMSR-E PASS INDICATED
THAT THIS MEAN CENTER IS PROBABLY A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS CONSEQUENTLY
BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 290/09...BUT IGNACIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST BY 36 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OF NORTHERN MEXICO.
ONCE THE CYCLONE WEAKENS BY 96 AND 120 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED TO
TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT IS STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 120 HOURS...AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

IGNACIO WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER THAT IS AT LEAST 26 DEG CELSIUS
FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...SO SOME STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AT
THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS. WHILE THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS...AS WELL AS THE STATISTICAL LGEM...ONLY STRENGTHEN IGNACIO
TO ABOUT 40-45 KT...THE PEAK INTENSITY SHOWN IN THE FORECAST IS NOT
BEING LOWERED...SINCE ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
SUPPORT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 17.0N 117.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 17.4N 119.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 18.1N 120.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 19.2N 122.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 20.8N 124.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 24.0N 127.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 26.5N 131.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 30/0000Z 27.5N 134.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Macrocane]

Welcome Nacho!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2009

...IGNACIO MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH....

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST OR ABOUT 650
MILES...1040 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

IGNACIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE IGNACIO REACHES COOLER WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.1N 118.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2009

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES RECEIVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IGNACIO WAS A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND REMOVED FROM THE MAIN
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A NEW AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE ONLY...SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS SOME NORTHERLY
SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DVORAK T-NUMBER HAVE NOT CHANGED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. IN FACT...AN ASCAT PASS
JUST CAME IN AND SHOWS 35-KT WINDS...THE DATA HELPED TO ADJUST THE
INITIAL WIND RADII. IGNACIO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GATHER SOME
STRENGTH BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER... A WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND BY DAYS 4 AND 5
IGNACIO SHOULD HAVE BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

WITH THE SMALL RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
295 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS...WHICH IS NOT TOO
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION. IGNACIO IS ALREADY ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHILE A LARGE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN
CALLS FOR IGNACIO TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...IGNACIO SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW.
THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD A LITTLE BIT DUE TO
THE SMALL RELOCATION OF THE CENTER AND NOT BECAUSE OF A CHANGE IN
THE STEERING PATTERN.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 18.1N 118.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 18.7N 119.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 19.7N 122.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 21.0N 123.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 23.0N 125.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 26.5N 128.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 27.5N 131.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 30/0600Z 28.0N 135.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

EP, 12, 2009082512, , BEST, 0, 183N, 1189W, 40, 1003, TS

Slowly intensifying

[HURAKAN]

25/1200 UTC 18.8N 118.2W T3.0/3.0 IGNACIO -- East Pacific

Dvorak thinks Ignacio is a 45-knot storm

[HURAKAN]

Looking very good

[Chacor]

WTPZ32 KNHC 251442
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2009

...IGNACIO SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST OR ABOUT 675
MILES...1090 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

IGNACIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE IGNACIO REACHES
COOLER WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.6N 119.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/WALTON

[HURAKAN]

EP, 12, 2009082518, , BEST, 0, 191N, 1198W, 45, 1000, TS

Remains at 50 mph

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IGNACIO
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH SOME HINT OF THE BEGINNING STAGE
OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMING. EVEN THOUGH THE NORTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE IS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUDS...A WELL-DEFINED BAND
IS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN
AT T3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. A 1417 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED A FEW
UNCONTAMINATED 45-50 KT WIND VECTORS...WHICH AGREE WELL WITH THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING WILL
BE CLOSING SOON SINCE THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN OVER 26.5C WATERS
FOR LESS THAN 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING...AND IGNACIO
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.

THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES HAVE
YIELDED FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE ESTIMATES OF THE CENTER LOCATION.
BASED UPON THOSE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11. THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. IGNACIO
SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTERLY COURSE AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES INTO THE EAST PACIFIC TO NEAR 130W. TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ASSUME A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK ONCE IGNACIO WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK DIFFERS LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 19.4N 120.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 20.4N 121.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 21.9N 123.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 23.6N 125.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 25.2N 127.6W 35 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 27.0N 130.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/1800Z 27.0N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

26/0000 UTC 20.0N 121.0W T3.5/3.5 IGNACIO -- East Pacific



Looking good