ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[The Eye Wall]

it eating it lunch alright but it also is helping sustain the convection. Long enough I supposed to get a LLC out of it by tomorrow IMO.....

some nice warm water to work with as it gets closer to FL...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Well Paul, I've said it once and I'll say it again--you stir a cup of coffee long enough at the top, the circulation will eventually reach the bottom. Worth watching for sure.

[ROCK]

it eating it lunch alright but it also is helping sustain the convection. Long enough I supposed to get a LLC out of it by tomorrow IMO.....

some nice warm water to work with as it gets closer to FL...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Well Paul, I've said it once and I'll say it again--you stir a cup of coffee long enough at the top, the circulation will eventually reach the bottom. Worth watching for sure.

you would be right bro.....looking at the vis tonight it does look like a mid level circulation at around 20N.... North convection tops shearing out to the northeast but the burst to the south not so much, IMO. Looks like that ULL is weakening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

steering
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[The Eye Wall]

The outflow is also a bit more pronounced this evening on the north side of the blob. Still has a ways to go. No LLC, no storm. Plain as that.

[Sanibel]

This disturbance is like Ana and Claudette combined. Ana's ULL that tore it apart and the wave that formed Claudette's persistence. I guess the ULL will suspend development for now but the energy is definitely there waiting to organize.

[boca]

We can't be so sure of the track as the models show a recurve.It looks like a slowly organizing mess that might go further west than we think, maybe between 75 and 80w.On the water vapor it looks like the trough is splitting the northern end moving NE and the other area in the Gulf moving WSW.I think the models will adjust tomorrow once somthing forms. I think it will recurve but alot closer to Florida than 70w.

[Aric Dunn]

We can't be so sure of the track as the models show a recurve.It looks like a slowly organizing mess that might go further west than we think, maybe between 75 and 80w.On the water vapor it looks like the trough is splitting the northern end moving NE and the other area in the Gulf moving WSW.I think the models will adjust tomorrow once somthing forms. I think it will recurve but alot closer to Florida than 70w.

exactly.. the models are clearly not handling the weak trough and the strong ridge moving in .. also the initial motion is wrong.
12z ukmet is more probable.. the system is not going strengthen that rapidly and a more westward track is likely.. also if it keeps a speed higher than forecast for any substantial length of time, we will see a system entering the bahamas in 3 days.


well make that 2 days for the bahamas not three.. bad calculation..

[Sanibel]

You seldom see red IR like that in this climatology that doesn't develop. Wait until it gets past Bill's wake and the ULL:

[boca]

I think if their was a center its down by 18n and 60w just SW of the reds in the IR sat that sanibel gave us.

[Sanibel]

We have plenty of time to see on the visible satellite tomorrow. Q-Scat doesn't lie.

[Aric Dunn]

No center anywhere.... a center can form within any deep convection.. but will likely form with the greatest convergence and vorticity which is farther to the south and west..

[clfenwi]

00Z GFS doesn't waste time depicting a low.

18h:


72h:

[MWatkins]

I think there are two problems with the 0Z GFS.

1. It develops/initializes 92L too far north. It has the 500mb reflection up north of 20 within the first 24 hours, which seems unlikely.

2. It is too progressive with the SE US upper low that turned Bill. The Cut off low gets picked up in the model and drags across 92L, turning it out to sea (probably).

The Euro leaves it hanging back until the weekend, which lets 92L approach the coast in the model run (so does NOGAPS).

Watch the upper low progged to sink down to the northern Gulf. That's the key I think to 92L becoming a problem or not...

MW

[fci]

If anything develops as far North as 20 and East as 60, I have serious doubts that it would gets as far west as South Florida. There has to be a monster ridge suppressing a system to the west (or like Ike last year to the WSW). I don't see that happening.

As for whether IF something develops it goes up the Mid-Atlantic coast, I can't say. But, based on my recollection of history; IF 92L develops, it will not be South Florida bound.

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[Aric Dunn]

I think there are two problems with the 0Z GFS.

1. It develops/initializes 92L too far north. It has the 500mb reflection up north of 20 within the first 24 hours, which seems unlikely.

2. It is too progressive with the SE US upper low that turned Bill. The Cut off low gets picked up in the model and drags across 92L, turning it out to sea (probably).

The Euro leaves it hanging back until the weekend, which lets 92L approach the coast in the model run (so does NOGAPS).

Watch the upper low progged to sink down to the northern Gulf. That's the key I think to 92L becoming a problem or not...

MW

exactly.. also mike the UKMET is in line with the Euro... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKTR ... kloop.html

[btangy]

The forecasted upper level low sitting along the Gulf coast reminds me of the upper level pattern that occurred back in May that lasted for a couple of weeks (wreaking boredom on the Vortex 2 project). I also think the GFS is a bit too progressive opening this low up and ejecting it NE and the culprit might be some grid scale feedback in the Midwest with a persistent bullseye of convection that induces a bit of a kink in the 500mb flow. Otherwise, there's no real kick in the jet stream that would cause this to happen until later in the week when the next system drops down from C Canada.

[Aric Dunn]

The forecasted upper level low sitting along the Gulf coast reminds me of the upper level pattern that occurred back in May that lasted for a couple of weeks (wreaking boredom on the Vortex 2 project). I also think the GFS is a bit too progressive opening this low up and ejecting it NE and the culprit might be some grid scale feedback in the Midwest with a persistent bullseye of convection that induces a bit of a kink in the 500mb flow. Otherwise, there's no real kick in the jet stream that would cause this to happen until later in the week when the next system drops down from C Canada.

yeah you can clearly see the upper low dropping SW, which its not likely to be moving out anytime soon. the weak low noted on the latest surface analysis,currently over the Georgia/Alabama border is also dropping to the SW into the northern gulf and the weak trough over florida is falling apart leaving the lower florida peninsula in light winds while the northern half is under ene winds around the ridge that is slipping off the east coast which will likely keep any system farther west than the current gfs and bam's. like watkins said the euro, and nogaps along with the ukmet keep the ridging in place longer although the nogaps is slightly recurving east of the euro and UKmet.

[clfenwi]

Canadian at 72h:



Brings it into ~Wilimington, NC at 108h (Saturday morning).

[GeneratorPower]

I feel a rant coming on. I'm sorry but I am going to have to formally complain about these model output maps. They are nearly impossible to read. Each model has its own different map and map projection, and they are absolutely LOADED with thick contour lines that completely obscure the landmasses on the map. These things are downright archaic. Maybe someone should spend a couple of thousand government dollars and have some college sophomore graphic designer come up with an output that is readable. Thank you for your time.

[Wx_Warrior]

GP...don't worry about the CMC.

[GeneratorPower]

GP...don't worry about the CMC.

Look, the GFS is the only comprehensible model output I know of in the tropical world. It's not just the CMC. It's like, everything. But alas, I'm not one to worry, anyway.Thank you for your support! :-0