Air Force Met wrote:I've seen him commit to plenty. To me...probability schemes are not forecasting...or forecasting PROB30...OR spliting the model difference when putting out your tropical track. That is NOT forecasting. It is taking the model average and making that the official forecast. The NHC does it all the time. At least JB says where he thinks it will go. He committed to Lili last year and was right on. He committed to claudette and was correct with the intensity forecast. So...again...it is all what you want to see. You don't want to see commital so you don't. He covers his bases and gives possibilities. That is what we do as forecasters. Sometimes we hit...and sometimes we bit the bullet.
PROB30 w/NWS means as I'm certain you know, 30% of the forecast coverage area will see measurable precip. Doesn't mean a given point of land has a 30% chance of precip.
TPC's verification record inside 72 hours is better than any model. Period. I keep stats. If they generally are in line with models we should all be grateful model output is improving.
Not correct regarding Lili. Bastardi had it landfalling as a "strong Cat 3...maybe a low 4". It was not.
Not correct with Claudette location... consistently honked LA and E TX. didn't happen. Ripped TPC for ebbing up the central TX coast. Where was landfall?
And I won't waste space or time reviewing the six...yes six winter storms he progged through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast he honked that did not happen.
Scott
my Cowboys 
