ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[gatorcane]

The CMC was showing a SE FL swipe this past weekend and now it looks like it is back to that thinking...

Really doesn't take much of a shift west (for the CMC) to put this into SE FL. I'm curious what the ECMWF does at this point.

Also, what happens if this thing deepens more rapidly than expected, does that mean it "pumps" up the ridge and goes more west similar to what Ike did? Recall most models had Ike recurving east of FL at one point, then through Central/SE FL, then eventually they converged into Cuba. Huge swing of the models in just a few days.

[maxx9512]

"Remember there is a lot more to the atmosphere than just the surface. What steers the storms are the upper-level winds."

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=[/quote]

Thanks for your help this makes things a bit easier to see why it is projected to do this. I have saved this link for future
reference. Agian thanks!

[jdray]

It's funny that were playing darts on the center until it actually forms. I'm guilty as well

Hee-hee! Looking at the latest floater, there are 2-3 spot that could be argued as the "emerging center."

Maybe we can have a contest: person closest to the center found by recon is the winner.

I'll take 22.5 N 68 W.
Why the heck not?

Damn, you picked my spot....

Definitely a few that could take over as "center".

[Aric Dunn]

here... after some more analysis.. i decided to move my general area of greatest possibility .. run the loop full zoom ... 15 images in that area.. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[RevDodd]

here... after some more analysis.. i decided to move my general area of greatest possibility .. run the loop full zoom ... 15 images in that area.. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

I can't believe it! You mean I actually hit one? Acorns all around!

[hurricanefloyd5]

this is a note I had posted on my door today with every one else here


Dear Resident:

You may be aware that certain areas of florida MAY come under a Hurricane Watch or Warning soon, which would mean that our area could be Subject to Hurricane Conditions including High force winds and Potentially Heavy Rainfall that could cause flooding. While we HOPE THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT passes, we urge you to take the necessary steps to be prepared in the eventwe do EXPERIENCE Hurricane Force Winds and rain. We would like to advise you to Closely Moniter weather buttletins, forecasts and offical declarations until the hurricane threat has passed!!!!

something is wrong here man

[deltadog03]

GFS is too progressive with the ULL over LA. Usually is a very progressive model. Dosn't suprise me. Gator, it won't take much more for the cmc to really sit that system right on the coast. Your right its very close.

[tailgater]

It's funny that were playing darts on the center until it actually forms. I'm guilty as well

Hee-hee! Looking at the latest floater, there are 2-3 spot that could be argued as the "emerging center."

Maybe we can have a contest: person closest to the center found by recon is the winner.

I'll take 22.5 N 68 W.
Why the heck not?

Send me the winner's check

[wxman57]

Still no evidence of any LLC forming. I really don't think there is a need for recon today. Or has recon been canceled?

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/92Lf.gif

[HURAKAN]

Still no evidence of any LLC forming. I really don't think there is a need for recon today. Or has recon been canceled?

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/92Lf.gif

Officially, not yet, likely in the next TWO.

[Aric Dunn]

Still no evidence of any LLC forming. I really don't think there is a need for recon today. Or has recon been canceled?

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/92Lf.gif

Im sorry wxman57.. but I hope your cross hair is not where you think a center may eventually form.. but the buoy to south has a SE wind and a center to west is more likely ..

[otowntiger]

this is a note I had posted on my door today with every one else here


Dear Resident:

You may be aware that certain areas of florida MAY come under a Hurricane Watch or Warning soon, which would mean that our area could be Subject to Hurricane Conditions including High force winds and Potentially Heavy Rainfall that could cause flooding. While we HOPE THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT passes, we urge you to take the necessary steps to be prepared in the eventwe do EXPERIENCE Hurricane Force Winds and rain. We would like to advise you to Closely Moniter weather buttletins, forecasts and offical declarations until the hurricane threat has passed!!!!

something is wrong here man

Are you serious? That is crazy!!! You mean to say that someone who may consider themselves to be an authority of some sort put a note like that on your door? In Orlando??? Do you live in an apartment building? Wow! Talk about over-reacting!!!! At this time it apprears that NO ONE on the entire east coast will be threatened by this storm, especially residents that live 60 miles inland. Wow, just wow. Of course things could change but anyone with any knowledge on the subject would not put out such alarming and false info.

[cycloneye]

Still no evidence of any LLC forming. I really don't think there is a need for recon today. Or has recon been canceled?

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/92Lf.gif

Recon departs from ST Croix at 3 PM EDT.

[Bocadude85]

this is a note I had posted on my door today with every one else here


Dear Resident:

You may be aware that certain areas of florida MAY come under a Hurricane Watch or Warning soon, which would mean that our area could be Subject to Hurricane Conditions including High force winds and Potentially Heavy Rainfall that could cause flooding. While we HOPE THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT passes, we urge you to take the necessary steps to be prepared in the eventwe do EXPERIENCE Hurricane Force Winds and rain. We would like to advise you to Closely Moniter weather buttletins, forecasts and offical declarations until the hurricane threat has passed!!!!

something is wrong here man

Thats interesting.... I wonder where they are getting their information from? Or why they think Florida has a severe weather threat?

[cycloneye]

This is the first mission this afternoon that departs at 3 PM EDT from ST Croix.

1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 25/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 25/1900Z
D. 22.0N 67.0W
E. 25/2000Z TO 26/0001Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Also NOAA will have a plane departing at 4 PM EDT.

[hurricanefloyd5]

this is a note I had posted on my door today with every one else here


Dear Resident:

You may be aware that certain areas of florida MAY come under a Hurricane Watch or Warning soon, which would mean that our area could be Subject to Hurricane Conditions including High force winds and Potentially Heavy Rainfall that could cause flooding. While we HOPE THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT passes, we urge you to take the necessary steps to be prepared in the eventwe do EXPERIENCE Hurricane Force Winds and rain. We would like to advise you to Closely Moniter weather buttletins, forecasts and offical declarations until the hurricane threat has passed!!!!

something is wrong here man

Are you serious? That is crazy!!! You mean to say that someone who may consider themselves to be an authority of some sort put a note like that on your door? In Orlando??? Do you live in an apartment building? Wow! Talk about over-reacting!!!! At this time it apprears that NO ONE on the entire east coast will be threatened by this storm, especially residents that live 60 miles inland. Wow, just wow. Of course things could change but anyone with any knowledge on the subject would not put out such alarming and false info.

Thank You I am glad to see that someone elsed thinks this is crazy!!!!!!!!

[wxman57]

17Z plot. Nothing there yet, just a wave axis. No circulation forming at the surface Just ESE-SE winds through the area, along with relatively high pressures.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is too progressive with the ULL over LA. Usually is a very progressive model. Dosn't suprise me. Gator, it won't take much more for the cmc to really sit that system right on the coast. Your right its very close.

yeah, also the hwrf ... the initialization is to far north and in 6 hours it has 55kt TS...

the Euro and cmc are the only consistent models at moment that fit the synoptic pattern at the moment.. the nogaps is a little better than the gfs but still a little to progressive..

[Aric Dunn]

here... after some more analysis.. i decided to move my general area of greatest possibility .. run the loop full zoom ... 15 images in that area.. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

I can't believe it! You mean I actually hit one? Acorns all around!

I just noticed the NHC has the plane going to the area Circled. cant say for sure if thats where they anticipate something taking shape as well but i would not be surprised to see them stay farther west near 65 W

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 25/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 25/1900Z
D. 22.0N 67.0W
E. 25/2000Z TO 26/0001Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[hurricanefloyd5]

here... after some more analysis.. i decided to move my general area of greatest possibility .. run the loop full zoom ... 15 images in that area.. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

I can't believe it! You mean I actually hit one? Acorns all around!

I just noticed the NHC has the plane going to the area Circled. cant say for sure if thats where they anticipate something taking shape as well but i would not be surprised to see them stay farther west near 65 W

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 25/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 25/1900Z
D. 22.0N 67.0W
E. 25/2000Z TO 26/0001Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

you mean far west as 70 or far est as 65????