Global model runs discussion

[KWT]

Yeah the GFS also strongly hints the pattern could shift again by early September, the troughiness is impressive at the moment but its not really sustainable just yet and there are bound to be periods in the enxt month where the ridge extends, perhaps quite strongly to the west as upper lows weaken and move out.

There probably isn't going to be any 2007 type blocking high but if a wave starts deep enough it only need weak-moderate ridging to get the job done.

[shah8]

The job being "to destroy us all", Pinky.

[jinftl]

Models popping up systems all over in the next week...key will be consistency for these models




NOAA graphic doesn't totally dismiss these possibilities...

[Derek Ortt]

the pattern can change to ridging for september during a nino

happened in 2004. The only thing about that August was while there was persistent troughing, the trough was a little farther west and sucked 3 hurricanes into the carolinas

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS has two systems,one near Bahamas and the other at MDR.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

ECM has the system that forms in the bahamas a touch further SW, seems models slowly trending that way, tracks up about 100-200 miles to the east of the coast.

It also shows just a hint of the MDR system that some of the other models are trying to develop.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

ECM has the system that forms in the bahamas a touch further SW, seems models slowly trending that way, tracks up about 100-200 miles to the east of the coast.

I hope not one hurricane scare a season is enough for me.

[KWT]

To be fair most models feature it as a weak system.

Anyway 18z once again forms a Cape Verde system but also spawns another system from the orginal wave, which is clearly dodgy and I remember the GFS doing that a few times with Bill.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

[cycloneye]

KWT,that is why I am not so sure if the wave I am following inside Africa is the one that may develop,or is the one behind or both.For sure is not a clear picture like it was when the wave that spawned Bill came out.Lets see what will be occuring in the Eastern Atlantic in the next couple of days.

[Blown Away]

To be fair most models feature it as a weak system.

Anyway 18z once again forms a Cape Verde system but also spawns another system from the orginal wave, which is clearly dodgy and I remember the GFS doing that a few times with Bill.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

If this wave develops I think the timing will make it interesting for the Islands and the CONUS. I think the Bermuda High is about to show some strength. My forecast is not based on models it's based on decades of watching weather in SFL. It's almost clockwork we get that nice easterly breeze come late August into early September. The arrival of this wave will bring it near 60W near the end of August. This week the persistent EC trough we have had almost all summer will be in place again and I would not be surprised if the Bermuda High shows some strength come early September. The models are hinting on developing waves on/near Africa and they will be approaching the Islands come late August and we will see if that BH is showing strength.

[Wx_Warrior]

new GFS has something strong then a turn NW before islands....FWIW

[KWT]

Yep it turns more to the NW though on the 0z run it still manages to make it brush the Carolinas before hitting the NE USA.
Very interesting run.

0z UKMO does show something but takes it NW very early indeed it has to be said.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS shows a strong system after emerging Africa tommorow.It ends up as a hurricane at Carolinas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KWT]

06z also does the exact same thing, heads WNW towards the LA (where have we seen that idea before hmmm....) then as the upper high builds over Bermuda it keeps it on that same WNW motion right up towards the Carolinas. The only difference is this time it recurves just as it reaches the banks.

[somethingfunny]

Models popping up systems all over in the next week...key will be consistency for these models

That system over Oklahoma has me a tad concerned....

[Sanibel]

Late September October should be interesting. Since Cape Verde is weak this year the western Atlantic may not have shown all it has yet.


GFS is sending a system from Africa all the way across that recurves just as it approaches the Leewards.


GFS does nothing with the current east of Leewards wave.

[Macrocane]

I know that the Atlantic caughts more attention the the other basins but I wanted to mention that the Euro has been very consisten on the last several days showing a possible tropical cyclone on the Arabian Sea:

Arabian Sea Cyclone

And I gian typhoon on the WPAC with a monsoonal origin as it was for Morakot a few weeks ago:

System on the West Pacific

[cycloneye]

12z CMC is bullish with wave emerging Africa and the one behind.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Stormcenter]

Wow all of this potential development is at a high latitude. It looks like the
East coast may be dodging the bullets for the most part this season. IMO

12z CMC is bullish with wave emerging Africa and the one behind.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET

Develops wave emerging Africa.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.2N 33.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.08.2009 11.2N 33.9W
00UTC 29.08.2009 13.4N 36.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.08.2009 13.0N 38.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.08.2009 14.0N 41.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2009 15.0N 44.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2009 15.3N 46.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2009 16.5N 48.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE