ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[otowntiger]

[quote="wxman57"]17Z plot. Nothing there yet, just a wave axis. No circulation forming at the surface Just ESE-SE winds through the area, along with relatively high pressures.

So there appears to be no progress made toward organizing at all as has been the case for a while now. Is it possible for this thing to just give up and fizzle out?

[AdamFirst]

Something I noticed on the satellite and wanted to ask the Pro Mets about



The part I circled, it seems like the "tail" of the convection is being closed up. Do you think there is something going around there in terms of anything getting together?

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 251744
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT
325 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS
IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Evil Jeremy]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT
325 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS
IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Interesting wording there.

[Aric Dunn]

you mean far west as 70 or far est as 65????

whichever way you want to look at it.. .lol

[RevDodd]

17Z plot. Nothing there yet, just a wave axis. No circulation forming at the surface Just ESE-SE winds through the area, along with relatively high pressures.

So there appears to be no progress made toward organizing at all as has been the case for a while now. Is it possible for this thing to just give up and fizzle out?

Nawww: Not with this many people throwing darts at it!

[hurricanefloyd5]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT
325 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS
IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Interesting wording there.

Could this become Danny???????

[Aric Dunn]

latest nogaps.. first 48hrs it looks reasonable.. it initializing it farther west around 65w and keeps its wnw unlike the gfs and bam's.. but is till to quick at recurving. but the 12z run better and farther west that the 00z and is more inline with the euro and cmc..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2009082512

[deltadog03]

My best "guess" you could say.

[Aric Dunn]

My best "guess" you could say.

I agree... just maybe a tad farther west... but that is good in my book..

[ronjon]

12Z CMC:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009082512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[caneseddy]

12Z CMC:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009082512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

CMC has this doing similar track to Floyd in 1999 up into North Carolina after curving away from Florida

[ronjon]

Interesting that 12Z CMC develops low pressure at around 22N-67W in 12 hours (8 PM position).

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009082512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[caneseddy]

12Z CMC:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009082512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

CMC has this doing a track similar to Floyd up in NC after curving away from Florida

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET

Says hello to outerbanks.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 23.1N 68.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.08.2009 23.1N 68.0W WEAK
12UTC 26.08.2009 24.2N 71.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.08.2009 25.7N 73.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2009 27.0N 76.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.08.2009 28.2N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2009 31.7N 76.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 29.08.2009 34.9N 76.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.08.2009 39.3N 74.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.08.2009 43.8N 69.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2009 47.4N 63.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.08.2009 48.9N 55.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

[Aric Dunn]

12z UKMET is right in line with the 00z euro still .. and is actually I think the best run yet out of all the models.. It holds the ridge then as the trough approaches slowly starts to recurve .. no sharp right turn that is highly unlikely,which is what the gfs and other models are doing ... still best models..

UKMET,Euro,Nogaps... the rest do not have a handle on it at all..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKTR ... kloop.html

[ronjon]

12Z GFDL (not impressed!)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2009082512-invest92l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[shah8]

I'd be more worried about the projections for TCs in the central atlantic sneaking along towards the end of the timeframe...

[Aric Dunn]

12z UKMET

Says hello to outerbanks.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 23.1N 68.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.08.2009 23.1N 68.0W WEAK
12UTC 26.08.2009 24.2N 71.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.08.2009 25.7N 73.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2009 27.0N 76.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.08.2009 28.2N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2009 31.7N 76.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 29.08.2009 34.9N 76.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.08.2009 39.3N 74.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.08.2009 43.8N 69.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2009 47.4N 63.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.08.2009 48.9N 55.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

hmmm... did i just look at the wrong 12z run ..

well it did initialize farther west which makes sense .. as that is where it is likely to close a low off..

yeah mine was old..

hmm

[dekeoy]

12Z CMC:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009082512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

That's NOT good!

Still got a couple of days to change though.