ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Blown Away]

SSD dvorak T numbers.
25/1745 UTC 23.3N 64.8W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

So we should be tracking the area farther east??

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, the sat pic just updated and storms are still firing nicely about where we have the circle. Also, more are gathering near there. Its almost where the 12z ukie and cmc have the "center".

yeah i have been staring at the loop not stop.. the conus site updates every 15 min.. i see inflow starting to set up .. that will be the area.. which means a more westward track... going to be interesting .

[deltadog03]

LOL...I am not sure..haha That western area has grown a bit in the last couple of frames...So, we shall see.

[Aric Dunn]

SSD dvorak T numbers.
25/1745 UTC 23.3N 64.8W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

So we should be tracking the area farther east??

no west..

[cycloneye]

The plane will tell us where is a circulation if there is one,so lets wait for the data that they will provide.

[wxman57]

sorry wxman....Tried it again. I guess imageshack is having prollems.

I just re-posted the pic.

See it now. That's the area I'm looking at. Maybe 22.6N/64.6W. Can't see any evidence of a surface center on observations nearby, just a trof axis. Recon should report that they could not close off any center, though they may find some rotation aloft. I think it's 24 hours away. And I'd still pay close attention if I was on the NC coast.

[Aric Dunn]

The plane will tell us where is a circulation if there is one,so lets wait for the data that they will provide.

well said..

[Aric Dunn]

sorry wxman....Tried it again. I guess imageshack is having prollems.

I just re-posted the pic.

See it now. That's the area I'm looking at. Maybe 22.6N/64.6W. Can't see any evidence of a surface center on observations nearby, just a trof axis. Recon should report that they could not close off any center, though they may find some rotation aloft. I think it's 24 hours away. And I'd still pay close attention if I was on the NC coast.

well i dont think they will find anything at 64 west.. possible farther west around 68W

[otowntiger]

Now I know that it is hard to discern movement when a center hasn't even formed yet, and I know that southerly shear can play tricks on our eyes as it pushes storms north, but it sure looks to me like this system is moving more north now than ever. Anyone else see that or am i just plain silly?

[Jevo]

The plane will tell us where is a circulation if there is one,so lets wait for the data that they will provide.

While we wait, it is fun to speculate and match wits.. At this point a little bit of guessing isnt going to scare anyone

[Aric Dunn]

The plane will tell us where is a circulation if there is one,so lets wait for the data that they will provide.

While we wait, it is fun to speculate and match wits.. At this point a little bit of guessing isnt going to scare anyone

lol .. of course..

but guessing is not the same as educated guessing .. come on jeev's hehe

[srainhoutx]

sorry wxman....Tried it again. I guess imageshack is having prollems.

I just re-posted the pic.

See it now. That's the area I'm looking at. Maybe 22.6N/64.6W. Can't see any evidence of a surface center on observations nearby, just a trof axis. Recon should report that they could not close off any center, though they may find some rotation aloft. I think it's 24 hours away. And I'd still pay close attention if I was on the NC coast.

Thanks wxman57

[x-y-no]

Sitting on the runway ...

URNT15 KNHC 251850
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 01 20090825
184030 1742N 06448W 0117 00000 9990 +999 +188 360000 000 999 999 25
184100 1742N 06448W 0117 00000 9990 +999 +188 360000 000 087 000 21
184130 1742N 06448W 0112 00000 9990 +999 +189 360000 000 021 000 21
184200 1742N 06448W 0117 00000 0106 +372 +190 360000 000 014 000 20
184230 1742N 06448W 0117 00000 0105 +359 +191 360000 000 014 000 20
184300 1742N 06448W 0116 00000 0104 +369 +192 360000 000 014 000 20
184330 1742N 06448W 0114 00000 0103 +368 +193 360000 000 014 000 20
184400 1742N 06448W 0114 00000 0104 +334 +194 360000 000 080 000 20
184430 1742N 06448W 0116 00000 0104 +338 +194 360000 000 036 000 20
184500 1742N 06448W 0114 00000 0103 +327 +195 360000 000 014 000 23
184530 1742N 06448W 0113 00000 0102 +315 +196 360000 000 999 999 23
184600 1742N 06448W 0112 00000 0100 +313 +196 360000 000 999 999 23
184630 1742N 06448W 0110 00000 0099 +309 +197 360000 000 999 999 23
184700 1742N 06448W 0108 00000 0097 +302 +197 360000 000 999 999 23
184730 1742N 06448W 0106 00000 0095 +299 +197 360000 000 999 999 23
184800 1742N 06449W 0104 00000 0093 +301 +198 360000 000 999 999 23
184830 1742N 06449W 0101 00000 0090 +299 +198 360000 000 999 999 23
184900 1742N 06449W 0100 00000 0089 +298 +198 360000 000 999 999 23
184930 1742N 06449W 0096 00000 0086 +314 +197 360000 000 999 999 23
185000 1742N 06449W 0097 00000 0086 +322 +197 360000 000 999 999 23
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

Ready to go

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

It almost coincides with the SSD dvorak position.

AL, 92, 2009082518, , BEST, 0, 232N, 647W, 25, 1011, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[wxman57]

Now I know that it is hard to discern movement when a center hasn't even formed yet, and I know that southerly shear can play tricks on our eyes as it pushes storms north, but it sure looks to me like this system is moving more north now than ever. Anyone else see that or am i just plain silly?

Some of the storms are moving more northward, but the "system" is moving WNW.

[sandyb]

would someone explain what all that means those numbers setting on runway how do you read that

[Jevo]

The plane will tell us where is a circulation if there is one,so lets wait for the data that they will provide.

While we wait, it is fun to speculate and match wits.. At this point a little bit of guessing isnt going to scare anyone

lol .. of course..

but guessing is not the same as educated guessing .. come on jeev's hehe

I dont believe Ive made an educated guess on these boards.. I just call Watkins and type what he tells me.... Makes me sound like I R Smart

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Bam Models

Moving at 315 degrees.

122
WHXX01 KWBC 251848
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1848 UTC TUE AUG 25 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20090825 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090825 1800 090826 0600 090826 1800 090827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.2N 64.7W 25.6N 68.2W 27.8N 70.9W 29.4N 72.6W
BAMD 23.2N 64.7W 25.2N 67.0W 27.0N 69.1W 28.4N 70.4W
BAMM 23.2N 64.7W 25.0N 67.3W 26.7N 69.6W 28.2N 71.1W
LBAR 23.2N 64.7W 25.4N 66.8W 27.5N 68.5W 29.1N 69.4W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090827 1800 090828 1800 090829 1800 090830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.7N 73.6W 32.4N 74.3W 34.3N 72.1W 37.8N 65.2W
BAMD 29.7N 71.1W 32.9N 71.5W 38.6N 69.2W 46.3N 62.1W
BAMM 29.5N 72.0W 32.2N 72.7W 36.3N 70.8W 42.2N 63.4W
LBAR 30.7N 69.3W 33.1N 67.2W 36.3N 65.0W 40.9N 60.5W
SHIP 53KTS 68KTS 73KTS 76KTS
DSHP 53KTS 68KTS 73KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.2N LONCUR = 64.7W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 20.1N LONM12 = 61.5W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 = 22KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 58.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Blown Away]

18 UTC Best Track

It almost coincides with the SSD dvorak position.

AL, 92, 2009082518, , BEST, 0, 232N, 647W, 25, 1011, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

So what is the spin Deltadog circled near 23N / 68W?