ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[wxman57]

18 UTC Best Track

It almost coincides with the SSD dvorak position.

AL, 92, 2009082518, , BEST, 0, 232N, 647W, 25, 1011, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

So what is the spin Deltadog circled near 23N / 68W?

Could be a remnant swirl from the dissipating upper low. The 23.2N/64.7 estimate is in the same general area as the 22.6N/64.6N area I'm watching.

[cycloneye]

Plane has departed.

URNT15 KNHC 251900
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 02 20090825
185030 1742N 06449W 0097 00000 0085 +319 +196 360000 000 999 999 23
185100 1742N 06449W 0097 00000 0085 +311 +195 360000 000 999 999 23
185130 1742N 06449W 0094 00000 0086 +286 +194 165007 010 999 999 23
185200 1742N 06448W 9979 00102 0094 +266 +194 163011 011 999 999 03
185230 1743N 06446W 9739 00311 0102 +247 +191 173012 012 999 999 03
185300 1744N 06445W 9472 00522 0046 +228 +186 175013 014 999 999 03
185330 1745N 06444W 9001 01013 0074 +206 +177 179012 013 999 999 03
185400 1747N 06443W 8624 01413 0141 +182 +167 181011 011 999 999 03
185430 1748N 06442W 8335 01708 0143 +165 +157 173014 015 999 999 03
185500 1750N 06442W 8044 02015 0143 +153 +147 167015 016 999 999 03
185530 1751N 06442W 7792 02286 0127 +142 +138 172016 017 999 999 03
185600 1753N 06443W 7530 02555 0109 +129 +128 175017 017 999 999 03
185630 1754N 06444W 7288 02829 0117 +108 +108 172018 019 999 999 03
185700 1756N 06445W 7062 03094 0115 +095 +095 175019 020 999 999 03
185730 1757N 06446W 6850 03353 0119 +081 +081 175019 020 999 999 03
185800 1759N 06447W 6649 03601 9990 +066 +999 179021 022 999 999 05
185830 1801N 06448W 6468 03831 9990 +050 +999 181021 022 999 999 05
185900 1802N 06449W 6287 04064 9990 +041 +999 184019 020 999 999 05
185930 1804N 06450W 6110 04300 9990 +029 +999 181017 018 999 999 05
190000 1806N 06450W 5960 04463 9990 +021 +999 183013 016 999 999 05

[Blown Away]

Yeah maybe the remnant ULL, it's building convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[JPmia]

Euro 12z:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9082512!!/

[Derek Ortt]

the fact that there are multiple areas where the center may be is a sign of just how disorganized this thing is

[OuterBanker]

Question, it seems that the initialization will be more south and west than the GFS 12z run. Also, the 12z run was considerably more west the 06z. Does this mean that the GFS is now more in line with the Euro and CMC. If so it will go from fish food to a near miss or mainland strike.

I think the CMC is an outlier, let's all hope for that. It is a nightmare scenario for the east coast from NC to NE.

[Nimbus]

The area Deltadog spotted fooled me too, looked like a lower level remnant swirl that was picking up convection.

[Aric Dunn]

Question, it seems that the initialization will be more south and west than the GFS 12z run. Also, the 12z run was considerably more west the 06z. Does this mean that the GFS is now more in line with the Euro and CMC. If so it will go from fish food to a near miss or mainland strike.

I think the CMC is an outlier, let's all hope for that. It is a nightmare scenario for the east coast from NC to NE.

no the gfs is still much farther east..

[sandyb]

how long will it take it to get there?

[cycloneye]

It will take around an hour.

URNT15 KNHC 251910
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 03 20090825
190030 1808N 06450W 5799 04692 9990 +010 +999 184011 012 999 999 05
190100 1810N 06450W 5665 04873 9990 -006 +999 192011 012 999 999 05
190130 1812N 06450W 5535 05076 9990 -020 +999 202012 012 999 999 05
190200 1814N 06450W 5411 05255 0268 -031 +999 199011 012 999 999 05
190230 1816N 06449W 5295 05417 0270 -041 +999 191009 010 999 999 05
190300 1818N 06449W 5177 05596 0285 -050 +999 195006 008 999 999 05
190330 1820N 06449W 5072 05761 0293 -059 +999 218005 005 999 999 05
190400 1822N 06449W 5048 05796 0290 -060 +999 207005 005 999 999 05
190430 1824N 06449W 5057 05776 0290 -062 +999 236005 005 999 999 05
190500 1826N 06450W 5059 05773 0293 -060 +999 225004 005 999 999 05
190530 1828N 06450W 5057 05779 0293 -060 -189 200003 004 999 999 03
190600 1831N 06451W 5057 05785 0294 -060 -336 183004 005 999 999 03
190630 1833N 06451W 5060 05783 0295 -060 -403 191005 005 999 999 03
190700 1835N 06452W 5062 05779 0296 -060 -435 212004 005 999 999 03
190730 1837N 06453W 5057 05783 0295 -063 -451 210006 008 999 999 03
190800 1839N 06453W 5054 05780 0292 -060 -459 190005 006 999 999 03
190830 1842N 06454W 5056 05782 0289 -062 -455 190006 007 999 999 03
190900 1844N 06453W 5058 05771 0286 -063 -198 185008 008 999 999 03
190930 1847N 06453W 5060 05776 0287 -065 +999 192009 010 999 999 05
191000 1849N 06451W 5065 05766 0287 -062 +999 188008 009 999 999 05
$$

[Derek Ortt]

NOAA is departing from Tampa, so they won't reach until this evening

[wxman57]

Question, it seems that the initialization will be more south and west than the GFS 12z run. Also, the 12z run was considerably more west the 06z. Does this mean that the GFS is now more in line with the Euro and CMC. If so it will go from fish food to a near miss or mainland strike.

I think the CMC is an outlier, let's all hope for that. It is a nightmare scenario for the east coast from NC to NE.

I did plot the 12Z MSLP forecast valid for 18Z with a satellite overlay (below). The GFS appeared to initialize very well at 12Z. Isobars are in 1/2 millibar increments. Both 12Z Euro and Canadian bring the center inland into NC early Saturday morning. GFS is still offshore. I just don't trust the GFS yet. It did so poorly with Bill early on, while the Euro and CMC did much better as far as the track. Euro was a bit slow at times, but had the track right.

[HURAKAN]

Photobucket appears to be having some problems

[otowntiger]

Now I know that it is hard to discern movement when a center hasn't even formed yet, and I know that southerly shear can play tricks on our eyes as it pushes storms north, but it sure looks to me like this system is moving more north now than ever. Anyone else see that or am i just plain silly?

Some of the storms are moving more northward, but the "system" is moving WNW.

Thanks wx57. Do you believe that this thing could just fizzle given its level of disorganization and lack of development progress so far? At this rate (or lack thereof) I would be surprised if it became a depression anytime tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 04 20090825
191030 1852N 06450W 5057 05774 0286 -065 -065 201008 009 999 999 03
191100 1854N 06450W 5060 05770 0285 -065 -079 204009 010 999 999 03
191130 1857N 06449W 5058 05772 0286 -067 -091 212011 011 999 999 03
191200 1900N 06449W 5058 05778 0288 -065 -100 207009 010 999 999 03
191230 1902N 06449W 5060 05774 0289 -064 -105 208009 009 999 999 03
191300 1905N 06449W 5058 05777 0289 -064 -110 206009 010 999 999 03
191330 1908N 06449W 5059 05775 0289 -066 -113 201011 012 999 999 03
191400 1910N 06448W 5058 05778 0289 -070 -117 202012 012 999 999 03
191430 1913N 06448W 5060 05778 0289 -070 -120 206013 013 999 999 03
191500 1916N 06448W 5060 05778 0288 -070 -123 207012 012 999 999 03
191530 1918N 06448W 5058 05777 0289 -070 -125 205012 012 999 999 03
191600 1921N 06447W 5060 05777 0289 -064 -128 209011 013 999 999 03
191630 1924N 06447W 5060 05774 0288 -066 -129 205011 012 999 999 03
191700 1926N 06447W 5058 05777 0288 -070 -131 202012 012 999 999 03
191730 1929N 06447W 5060 05772 0289 -070 -133 203012 012 999 999 03
191800 1932N 06447W 5059 05773 0289 -070 -134 203012 012 999 999 03
191830 1934N 06446W 5060 05777 0289 -070 -136 204011 011 999 999 03
191900 1934N 06446W 5060 05777 0290 -066 -138 209010 010 999 999 03
191930 1940N 06446W 5060 05771 0289 -065 -140 206011 011 999 999 03
192000 1942N 06446W 5060 05780 0290 -065 -141 211010 011 999 999 03
$$

[cycloneye]

Plane is flying towards SSD dvorak and Best track positions to see what is there.After that then may go more west.

[otowntiger]

[quote="cycloneye"]18 UTC Bam Models

Moving at 315 degrees.

That's straight up NW. That's what I thought I was seeing.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

The Euro, UKMET and CMC all seem to make this a pretty significant East Coast event

[cycloneye]

Plane continues to fly to the north.

URNT15 KNHC 251930
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 05 20090825
192030 1945N 06446W 5060 05776 0289 -065 -142 214010 010 999 999 03
192100 1948N 06445W 5058 05781 0288 -068 -142 220010 010 999 999 03
192130 1950N 06445W 5060 05773 0288 -066 -143 218010 010 999 999 03
192200 1953N 06445W 5058 05774 0288 -066 -143 218010 011 999 999 03
192230 1956N 06445W 5060 05767 0288 -065 -144 225010 010 999 999 03
192300 1958N 06445W 5058 05776 0288 -067 -146 222010 010 999 999 03
192330 2001N 06444W 5060 05773 0287 -067 -148 221012 012 999 999 03
192400 2004N 06444W 5058 05774 0286 -065 -150 219012 012 999 999 03
192430 2006N 06443W 5058 05779 0287 -065 -152 220012 013 999 999 03
192500 2008N 06441W 5060 05777 0287 -066 -153 217013 014 999 999 03
192530 2010N 06439W 5059 05771 0285 -070 -154 219014 014 999 999 03
192600 2011N 06437W 5058 05770 0285 -065 -156 220012 013 999 999 03
192630 2013N 06434W 5060 05774 0285 -065 -157 219012 013 999 999 03
192700 2015N 06432W 5060 05770 0285 -065 -158 219013 013 999 999 03
192730 2016N 06430W 5060 05773 0285 -065 -159 217014 014 999 999 03
192800 2018N 06428W 5060 05767 0285 -065 -159 214014 015 999 999 03
192830 2020N 06426W 5060 05768 0284 -065 -160 218014 015 999 999 03
192900 2022N 06423W 5058 05771 0286 -067 -162 219014 014 999 999 03
192930 2023N 06421W 5058 05774 0285 -070 -162 221014 014 999 999 03
193000 2025N 06419W 5062 05764 0284 -069 -163 216015 015 999 999 03

[wxman57]

Thanks wx57. Do you believe that this thing could just fizzle given its level of disorganization and lack of development progress so far? At this rate (or lack thereof) I would be surprised if it became a depression anytime tomorrow.

I think it has a better-than-not chance of developing. Probably a TD by this time tomorrow and Danny by Thursday morning. Possibly a somewhat disorganized and smallish Cat 1 threatening NC coast between Wilmington and Hatteras Friday night.

Here's a new analysis. Wave axis passed the buoy. South winds there now. Convection appears to be weakening. Still appears to be a wave axis with no LLC, as is evident by the various surface observations in the area. Really needs an area of more concentrated convection to generate an LLC.