ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[cycloneye]

Plane flying NNE,decends slowly.

URNT15 KNHC 251940
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 06 20090825
193030 2027N 06417W 5066 05762 0289 -063 -163 215015 016 999 999 03
193100 2028N 06415W 5062 05772 0291 -064 -164 213016 016 999 999 03
193130 2030N 06413W 5058 05780 0291 -065 -165 213015 016 999 999 03
193200 2031N 06411W 5057 05781 0291 -064 -166 215015 015 999 999 03
193230 2033N 06409W 5060 05775 0291 -065 -167 219013 014 999 999 03
193300 2034N 06407W 5065 05772 0294 -061 -167 222012 013 999 999 03
193330 2036N 06405W 5057 05784 0295 -061 -166 219012 013 999 999 03
193400 2037N 06403W 5058 05788 0295 -059 -163 211013 013 999 999 03
193430 2039N 06401W 5058 05781 0295 -060 -161 212011 012 999 999 03
193500 2040N 06400W 5066 05772 0297 -058 -159 214014 014 999 999 03
193530 2041N 06358W 5060 05789 0299 -058 -156 215012 013 999 999 03
193600 2043N 06356W 5060 05784 0298 -061 -152 213015 016 999 999 03
193630 2044N 06354W 5058 05786 0300 -060 -148 211013 013 999 999 03
193700 2046N 06353W 5061 05785 0300 -062 -145 212014 014 999 999 03
193730 2047N 06351W 5060 05787 0299 -060 -142 209015 017 999 999 03
193800 2048N 06349W 5241 05510 0284 -047 -140 215018 019 999 999 03
193830 2050N 06347W 5444 05210 0268 -030 -138 218019 019 999 999 03
193900 2051N 06345W 5612 04964 0124 -018 -136 214020 020 999 999 03
193930 2053N 06343W 5825 04663 0120 -004 -133 211022 023 999 999 03
194000 2054N 06342W 5844 04626 0118 -005 -130 211022 022 999 999 03
$$

[canes04]

Luis,

Hopefully they will go further west, it looks like the low is forming in 22n 68w area and moving wnw.

[Air Force Met]

Could be a remnant swirl from the dissipating upper low. The 23.2N/64.7 estimate is in the same general area as the 22.6N/64.6N area I'm watching.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=12&map=latlon

Its not upper level...looks like a low level vort max. Low level Cu at 23/67 moving WSW while the cu south of there is moving NNW. Converging near 23/68. See another vort max NW of your position...near 23/65.5 or so.

[Aric Dunn]

Could be a remnant swirl from the dissipating upper low. The 23.2N/64.7 estimate is in the same general area as the 22.6N/64.6N area I'm watching.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=12&map=latlon

Its not upper level...looks like a low level vort max. Low level Cu at 23/67 moving WSW while the cu south of there is moving NNW. Converging near 23/68. See another vort max NW of your position...near 23/65.5 or so.

I agree.. its going to take time for it to take shape...

[cycloneye]

Anyone has graphics of google to follow this mission?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Euro 12z:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9082512!!/

I know this is potential "Danny's" model thread but Erica stands out like a sore thumb in this run with a strong high building in..

[cycloneye]

Plane continues its decending.Still flying NNE.

URNT15 KNHC 251950
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 07 20090825
194030 2055N 06340W 5935 04503 0135 -001 -126 214020 021 999 999 03
194100 2057N 06338W 6171 04214 0166 +015 -122 203019 019 999 999 03
194130 2058N 06336W 6386 03936 0164 +033 -117 195023 025 999 999 03
194200 2059N 06335W 6613 03650 0162 +053 -112 191025 025 999 999 03
194230 2101N 06333W 6836 03377 0158 +069 -104 187024 025 999 999 03
194300 2102N 06331W 7060 03106 0152 +088 -094 182025 025 999 999 03
194330 2104N 06330W 7271 02857 0148 +103 -083 179023 024 999 999 03
194400 2106N 06329W 7611 02475 0154 +118 -069 174022 023 999 999 03
194430 2107N 06331W 7952 02117 0172 +135 -053 165019 020 999 999 03
194500 2109N 06332W 8144 01916 0172 +146 -036 159018 018 999 999 03
194530 2111N 06333W 8121 01940 0173 +140 -021 164017 018 999 999 03
194600 2112N 06335W 8121 01938 0168 +145 -009 159020 020 999 999 03
194630 2114N 06336W 8117 01941 0166 +145 +001 160020 020 021 004 03
194700 2115N 06337W 8117 01941 0165 +145 +009 163020 020 025 002 00
194730 2116N 06338W 8117 01940 0163 +148 +015 165019 020 024 003 00
194800 2118N 06339W 8121 01937 0163 +149 +020 170019 019 024 004 00
194830 2119N 06341W 8119 01937 0163 +146 +025 173019 020 024 004 00
194900 2121N 06342W 8115 01941 0164 +145 +030 176020 021 022 004 00
194930 2122N 06343W 8121 01937 0162 +146 +034 178021 021 023 004 00
195000 2124N 06344W 8119 01933 0160 +146 +037 181020 021 021 005 00

[RL3AO]

[cycloneye]

Plane is looking for west winds.What is the number for a west wind as I forgot?

[Ivanhater]

[RL3AO]

Plane is looking for west winds.What is the number for a west wind as I forgot?

255 to 285 or so (due west is 270).

[Aric Dunn]

why so blurry ... is that from photobucket or image shack ... imageshack seems better..

[cycloneye]

Plane is looking for west winds.What is the number for a west wind as I forgot?

255 to 285 or so (due west is 270).

Ok. I will look for that number if it comes.

[RL3AO]

Its probably the sat image.

[cycloneye]

Flying at operational altitud.NW is the direction they are flying.

URNT15 KNHC 252000
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 08 20090825
195030 2125N 06345W 8119 01933 0160 +145 +039 176021 021 018 003 00
195100 2127N 06347W 8117 01938 0158 +147 +042 182021 023 017 003 00
195130 2128N 06348W 8119 01932 0155 +150 +043 179022 023 021 004 00
195200 2129N 06349W 8118 01934 0151 +155 +045 185025 025 023 004 00
195230 2131N 06350W 8118 01935 0152 +155 +047 183024 024 024 004 00
195300 2132N 06351W 8124 01928 0151 +157 +049 180023 024 025 004 03
195330 2134N 06353W 8434 01609 0161 +159 +053 176022 024 999 999 03
195400 2135N 06354W 8761 01280 0154 +185 +056 167022 024 999 999 03
195430 2137N 06356W 9080 00966 0145 +201 +061 160025 026 999 999 03
195500 2138N 06357W 9376 00676 0130 +213 +069 154029 030 999 999 03
195530 2140N 06359W 9672 00400 0123 +230 +078 150028 029 026 004 03
195600 2141N 06400W 9768 00308 0120 +233 +087 145030 031 029 005 00
195630 2143N 06401W 9771 00303 0118 +231 +094 145031 032 028 006 03
195700 2144N 06402W 9770 00303 0116 +237 +100 157029 030 033 005 03
195730 2146N 06403W 9767 00307 0116 +237 +106 153030 031 034 003 00
195800 2147N 06404W 9768 00307 0116 +240 +113 151027 028 027 005 00
195830 2149N 06405W 9771 00303 0116 +241 +119 151024 026 024 005 00
195900 2150N 06406W 9771 00304 0117 +237 +124 154023 024 021 008 00
195930 2152N 06407W 9768 00306 0117 +235 +126 155023 024 022 007 03
200000 2153N 06408W 9768 00307 0116 +240 +128 154021 022 020 006 00

[Aric Dunn]

Plane is looking for west winds.What is the number for a west wind as I forgot?

hehe.. for future reference..

http://climate.umn.edu/snow_fence/Compo ... table3.htm

[gatorcane]

Euro 12z:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9082512!!/

I know this is potential "Danny's" model thread but Erica stands out like a sore thumb in this run with a strong high building in..

Yes that track looks interesting. Will be watching.

[Sanibel]

Eye-ing it near 23.5N-64.5W


Headed NW.

[RL3AO]

Is that better Aric?

[Blown Away]

The interaction of a developing tropical system and a dissipating ULL is difficult for me to understand, but the most obvious spin is near 23N / 68W moving generally W. This area is also building convection as we speak.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html