ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Aric Dunn]

Is that better Aric?

perfect..

[Sanibel]

The interaction of a developing tropical system and a dissipating ULL is difficult for me to understand, but the most obvious spin is near 23N / 68W moving generally W. This area is also building convection as we speak.

That fooled me too. It's a ULL eddy in my opinion.

[Derek Ortt]

looking at 1km visible imagery, it does appear that there are SW winds. However, this looks to be a broad area of low-pressure and not quite a TC

[Aric Dunn]

The interaction of a developing tropical system and a dissipating ULL is difficult for me to understand, but the most obvious spin is near 23N / 68W moving generally W. This area is also building convection as we speak.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

yeah there are clearly a couple vorticies ... I believe the one farhter west and south will eventually consolidate and take over.. thats just from a physics point of view.

[cycloneye]

Looking for west winds.

URNT15 KNHC 252010
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 09 20090825
200030 2154N 06410W 9769 00307 0116 +244 +131 160021 021 019 004 00
200100 2156N 06411W 9772 00303 0116 +245 +133 160021 021 017 004 00
200130 2157N 06412W 9769 00305 0116 +245 +136 162022 023 019 005 00
200200 2158N 06413W 9772 00303 0116 +243 +139 157021 023 022 004 00
200230 2200N 06414W 9771 00304 0116 +241 +141 158020 022 011 005 00
200300 2201N 06416W 9770 00305 0116 +240 +143 161021 022 013 005 00
200330 2202N 06417W 9769 00306 0116 +240 +145 160021 022 016 004 00
200400 2204N 06418W 9768 00306 0115 +240 +147 156020 022 017 004 00
200430 2205N 06419W 9770 00305 0116 +240 +148 158020 021 017 004 00
200500 2206N 06420W 9770 00305 0116 +240 +148 158019 020 015 005 00
200530 2207N 06422W 9769 00305 0116 +240 +149 158018 019 017 004 00
200600 2209N 06423W 9772 00304 0117 +240 +150 157018 019 013 005 00
200630 2210N 06424W 9770 00304 0117 +240 +151 154019 019 016 004 00
200700 2211N 06425W 9768 00307 0117 +240 +152 156018 018 016 005 00
200730 2213N 06427W 9773 00303 0116 +240 +152 154019 020 008 005 00
200800 2214N 06428W 9772 00303 0117 +240 +153 153020 021 015 004 00
200830 2215N 06429W 9768 00309 0117 +240 +154 156019 020 018 003 00
200900 2217N 06430W 9770 00305 0117 +240 +154 156019 019 017 003 00
200930 2218N 06431W 9772 00305 0117 +240 +154 157019 019 017 003 00
201000 2220N 06432W 9770 00305 0117 +240 +155 157018 019 018 004 00
$$

[terrapintransit]

It's definetely a huge system

[sandyb]

do we know anything yet?

[Emmett_Brown]

Looks like an LLC is trying to form at 23N 68W to me. I think the rest of the convection of to the east is a decoy... shear enhanced.

Pretty sad shape right now, but as we have all said, might take another 12-24 hrs to get rolling.

[RL3AO]

I think its going to be one of those situations where we find a west or close to west wind, but it doesn't meet the definition of a "well defined circulation"

[Aric Dunn]

looking at 1km visible imagery, it does appear that there are SW winds. However, this looks to be a broad area of low-pressure and not quite a TC

yeah thats likely the case at the moment .. but another 6 to 12 hours it will likely be a depression..

[RattleMan]

After resolving my decoder's problems with negative temperatures and dew points I'd like to post a decoding of an earlier ob:

URNT15 KNHC 251930
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 05 20090825
192030 1945N 06446W 5060 05776 0289 -065 -142 214010 010 999 999 03
192100 1948N 06445W 5058 05781 0288 -068 -142 220010 010 999 999 03
192130 1950N 06445W 5060 05773 0288 -066 -143 218010 010 999 999 03
192200 1953N 06445W 5058 05774 0288 -066 -143 218010 011 999 999 03
192230 1956N 06445W 5060 05767 0288 -065 -144 225010 010 999 999 03
192300 1958N 06445W 5058 05776 0288 -067 -146 222010 010 999 999 03
192330 2001N 06444W 5060 05773 0287 -067 -148 221012 012 999 999 03
192400 2004N 06444W 5058 05774 0286 -065 -150 219012 012 999 999 03
192430 2006N 06443W 5058 05779 0287 -065 -152 220012 013 999 999 03
192500 2008N 06441W 5060 05777 0287 -066 -153 217013 014 999 999 03
192530 2010N 06439W 5059 05771 0285 -070 -154 219014 014 999 999 03
192600 2011N 06437W 5058 05770 0285 -065 -156 220012 013 999 999 03
192630 2013N 06434W 5060 05774 0285 -065 -157 219012 013 999 999 03
192700 2015N 06432W 5060 05770 0285 -065 -158 219013 013 999 999 03
192730 2016N 06430W 5060 05773 0285 -065 -159 217014 014 999 999 03
192800 2018N 06428W 5060 05767 0285 -065 -159 214014 015 999 999 03
192830 2020N 06426W 5060 05768 0284 -065 -160 218014 015 999 999 03
192900 2022N 06423W 5058 05771 0286 -067 -162 219014 014 999 999 03
192930 2023N 06421W 5058 05774 0285 -070 -162 221014 014 999 999 03
193000 2025N 06419W 5062 05764 0284 -069 -163 216015 015 999 999 03

Code: Select all

TIME        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
19:20:30z   19.45°N   64.46°W   506.0 hPa   5776m   1002.9 hPa   -6.5°C   -14.4°C   214° @ 010kt   10kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:21:00z   19.48°N   64.45°W   505.8 hPa   5781m   1002.8 hPa   -6.8°C   -14.2°C   220° @ 010kt   10kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:21:30z   19.50°N   64.45°W   506.0 hPa   5773m   1002.8 hPa   -6.6°C   -14.3°C   218° @ 010kt   10kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:22:00z   19.53°N   64.45°W   505.8 hPa   5774m   1002.8 hPa   -6.6°C   -14.3°C   218° @ 010kt   11kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:22:30z   19.56°N   64.45°W   506.0 hPa   5767m   1002.8 hPa   -6.5°C   -14.4°C   225° @ 010kt   10kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:23:00z   19.58°N   64.45°W   505.8 hPa   5776m   1002.8 hPa   -6.7°C   -14.6°C   222° @ 010kt   10kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:23:30z   20.01°N   64.44°W   506.0 hPa   5773m   1002.7 hPa   -6.7°C   -14.8°C   221° @ 012kt   12kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:24:00z   20.04°N   64.44°W   505.8 hPa   5774m   1002.6 hPa   -6.5°C   -15.0°C   219° @ 012kt   12kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:24:30z   20.06°N   64.43°W   505.8 hPa   5779m   1002.7 hPa   -6.5°C   -15.2°C   220° @ 012kt   13kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:25:00z   20.08°N   64.41°W   506.0 hPa   5777m   1002.7 hPa   -6.6°C   -15.3°C   217° @ 013kt   14kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:25:30z   20.10°N   64.39°W   505.9 hPa   5771m   1002.5 hPa   -7.0°C   -15.4°C   219° @ 014kt   14kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:26:00z   20.11°N   64.37°W   505.8 hPa   5770m   1002.5 hPa   -6.5°C   -15.6°C   220° @ 012kt   13kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:26:30z   20.13°N   64.34°W   506.0 hPa   5774m   1002.5 hPa   -6.5°C   -15.7°C   219° @ 012kt   13kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:27:00z   20.15°N   64.32°W   506.0 hPa   5770m   1002.5 hPa   -6.5°C   -15.8°C   219° @ 013kt   13kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:27:30z   20.16°N   64.30°W   506.0 hPa   5773m   1002.5 hPa   -6.5°C   -15.9°C   217° @ 014kt   14kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:28:00z   20.18°N   64.28°W   506.0 hPa   5767m   1002.5 hPa   -6.5°C   -15.9°C   214° @ 014kt   15kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:28:30z   20.20°N   64.26°W   506.0 hPa   5768m   1002.4 hPa   -6.5°C   -16.0°C   218° @ 014kt   15kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:29:00z   20.22°N   64.23°W   505.8 hPa   5771m   1002.6 hPa   -6.7°C   -16.2°C   219° @ 014kt   14kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:29:30z   20.23°N   64.21°W   505.8 hPa   5774m   1002.5 hPa   -7.0°C   -16.2°C   221° @ 014kt   14kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
19:30:00z   20.25°N   64.19°W   506.2 hPa   5764m   1002.4 hPa   -6.9°C   -16.3°C   216° @ 015kt   15kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect


[cycloneye]

I see 240 that is WSW.

[wxman57]

I think we're all just chasing small swirls today. Give it another 24 hours to come together.

[Aric Dunn]

I see 240 that is WSW.

thats pretty close is it more than one ob or just that one..

[somethingfunny]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

The 12z CMC does the same thing. I guess this will be a good test of the "new and improved" Canadian. If the new CMC isn't spinning up any more phantomcanes then within a week we should be seeing a real East Coast threat from Danny, a strengthening Erika crossing the MDR, and Fred forming out by the Cape Verdes. I don't expect perfection from the CMC...it's still just a computer model, and at 144 hours...but if we get 2/3 of the storms it's forecasting, the new CMC will have my respect. The CMC is also developing Jimena in about 3 days and Kevin in the EPAC from the current 93L soon afterwards. So there's five points upon which the improvements can be graded.

And yes, the upper level pattern does make potential Erika look like a real threat next week.

I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL AND THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST.... I AM JUST AN AMATEUR... AND AN AMATEURISH AMATEUR AT THAT!

[x-y-no]

do we know anything yet?

Nothing but SSE winds so far.

I think they want to get up into the convection before they turn west.

[HURAKAN]

Sorry, I had to pick up my sister at her school

[cycloneye]

A bunch of 240-235,WSW winds.

URNT15 KNHC 252021
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 10 20090825
201030 2221N 06433W 9774 00303 0117 +240 +155 157017 018 019 004 00
201100 2223N 06434W 9772 00304 0117 +240 +156 157018 019 018 004 00
201130 2224N 06435W 9772 00306 0117 +240 +156 157018 019 018 004 00
201200 2225N 06436W 9772 00304 0117 +240 +157 156018 018 019 002 00
201230 2227N 06437W 9772 00306 0118 +240 +158 153018 018 020 003 00
201300 2228N 06438W 9769 00308 0118 +240 +158 151018 018 017 004 00
201330 2229N 06440W 9772 00305 0118 +240 +159 150017 018 017 004 00
201400 2231N 06441W 9773 00304 0119 +240 +159 153017 018 015 004 00
201430 2232N 06442W 9770 00307 0118 +240 +160 154017 018 017 004 00
201500 2233N 06443W 9767 00310 0118 +240 +160 153018 019 017 004 00
201530 2235N 06444W 9770 00306 0118 +239 +160 150016 017 017 004 00
201600 2236N 06445W 9770 00306 0118 +235 +161 150017 018 016 004 00
201630 2237N 06446W 9770 00304 0117 +235 +161 150019 019 016 005 00
201700 2239N 06448W 9770 00305 0117 +235 +161 152019 020 018 005 00
201730 2240N 06449W 9770 00305 0117 +235 +161 155020 021 019 004 00
201800 2241N 06450W 9770 00305 0116 +235 +161 153021 022 021 005 00
201830 2243N 06451W 9771 00304 0116 +235 +161 153022 022 021 005 00
201900 2244N 06452W 9771 00301 0115 +235 +161 152023 024 024 003 00
201930 2245N 06453W 9773 00300 0115 +235 +160 153023 023 022 005 00
202000 2247N 06455W 9770 00304 0115 +235 +161 151021 022 020 005 00
$$

[RL3AO]

A bunch of 240-235,WSW winds.

URNT15 KNHC 252021
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 10 20090825
201030 2221N 06433W 9774 00303 0117 +240 +155 157017 018 019 004 00
201100 2223N 06434W 9772 00304 0117 +240 +156 157018 019 018 004 00
201130 2224N 06435W 9772 00306 0117 +240 +156 157018 019 018 004 00
201200 2225N 06436W 9772 00304 0117 +240 +157 156018 018 019 002 00
201230 2227N 06437W 9772 00306 0118 +240 +158 153018 018 020 003 00
201300 2228N 06438W 9769 00308 0118 +240 +158 151018 018 017 004 00
201330 2229N 06440W 9772 00305 0118 +240 +159 150017 018 017 004 00
201400 2231N 06441W 9773 00304 0119 +240 +159 153017 018 015 004 00
201430 2232N 06442W 9770 00307 0118 +240 +160 154017 018 017 004 00
201500 2233N 06443W 9767 00310 0118 +240 +160 153018 019 017 004 00
201530 2235N 06444W 9770 00306 0118 +239 +160 150016 017 017 004 00
201600 2236N 06445W 9770 00306 0118 +235 +161 150017 018 016 004 00
201630 2237N 06446W 9770 00304 0117 +235 +161 150019 019 016 005 00
201700 2239N 06448W 9770 00305 0117 +235 +161 152019 020 018 005 00
201730 2240N 06449W 9770 00305 0117 +235 +161 155020 021 019 004 00
201800 2241N 06450W 9770 00305 0116 +235 +161 153021 022 021 005 00
201830 2243N 06451W 9771 00304 0116 +235 +161 153022 022 021 005 00
201900 2244N 06452W 9771 00301 0115 +235 +161 152023 024 024 003 00
201930 2245N 06453W 9773 00300 0115 +235 +160 153023 023 022 005 00
202000 2247N 06455W 9770 00304 0115 +235 +161 151021 022 020 005 00
$$

Thats the temperature.

The winds are 150 or so.

202000 2247N 06455W 9770 00304 0115 +235 +161 151021 022 020 005 00

[RL3AO]