ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[jlauderdal]

After staring at the satellite loop for some time, I don't see any evidence of a closed circulation at the surface. I would be surprised if this is upgraded. Maybe tomorrow.....MGC

its simple, the plane is there, if they close a low upgrade, if they cant close it off then no upgrade, no stas no conjecture no opinion its all in the science as seen by da plane, my prediction is no upgrade even if they find 100 knots out there

[SCHurricane]

Whats the flight level right now?

[cheezyWXguy]

any chance this gets in the gom?

nope.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Whats the flight level right now?

21:58:00Z 24.733N 65.550W 976.8 mb
(~ 28.84 inHg) 328 meters
(~ 1,076 feet) 1014.6 mb
(~ 29.96 inHg) - From 98° at 56 knots
(From the E at ~ 64.4 mph)

[x-y-no]

Whats the flight level right now?

1000 feet

[HURAKAN]

[David in FL]

What is GOM? Also if this thing does develop any stronger what are the chances of this thing hitting us in north florida, or is it to early to tell?

[RL3AO]

What is GOM? Also if this thing does develop any stronger what are the chances of this thing hitting us in north florida, or is it to early to tell?

GOM = Gulf of Mexico

[cycloneye]

60kt flight level wind at 1000 feet.52kt at SMFR.

URNT15 KNHC 252210
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 21 20090825
220030 2444N 06544W 9767 00328 0142 +212 +149 096056 058 051 000 00
220100 2444N 06546W 9774 00320 0141 +212 +151 096057 058 049 004 00
220130 2444N 06548W 9772 00321 0141 +210 +154 094052 053 050 001 00
220200 2444N 06551W 9771 00322 0141 +210 +156 092053 054 048 003 00
220230 2443N 06553W 9770 00324 0141 +210 +158 093053 054 049 001 03
220300 2443N 06555W 9774 00320 0141 +212 +159 093052 053 049 003 00
220330 2443N 06557W 9762 00331 0142 +212 +161 091049 051 048 006 00
220400 2443N 06559W 9776 00320 0141 +214 +162 091052 054 050 005 00
220430 2443N 06602W 9767 00327 0141 +214 +162 089055 057 049 006 00
220500 2443N 06604W 9768 00328 0142 +208 +162 092055 058 052 004 00
220530 2443N 06606W 9772 00320 0140 +208 +161 093058 060 052 002 00
220600 2443N 06608W 9773 00318 0140 +210 +158 092057 058 052 003 00
220630 2443N 06610W 9770 00322 0139 +210 +158 093055 058 053 003 00
220700 2443N 06613W 9773 00319 0139 +212 +159 089056 058 049 005 00
220730 2443N 06615W 9770 00321 0139 +212 +160 090053 055 049 002 00
220800 2443N 06617W 9768 00324 0138 +211 +161 091055 056 051 001 00
220830 2443N 06619W 9768 00324 0138 +212 +162 093056 057 049 000 03
220900 2443N 06621W 9771 00320 0138 +214 +164 092053 054 050 002 00
220930 2443N 06624W 9769 00323 0137 +218 +165 087050 051 048 003 00
221000 2443N 06626W 9772 00319 0137 +220 +166 087050 052 047 001 00
$$

[Aric Dunn]

the imiage i posted earlier showing the two vorts.. are rotating around a mean center and will eventually consolidate around 67 W and 22 to 23 North...

Plane is in another place.

yes I know.. they have not gone that way .. but looks like they are heading that way now..

[HURAKAN]

[rrm]

any chance this gets in the gom?

nope.

what makes you so confident of that?

[massweathernet]

any chance this gets in the gom?

nope.

what makes you so confident of that?

Models, gut feeling/weather experience..

[HURAKAN]

any chance this gets in the gom?

nope.

what makes you so confident of that?

There's not even one computer model that shows this system going to the gulf.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

any chance this gets in the gom?

nope.

what makes you so confident of that?

Good upper level trof over the northern Gulf into Alabama will keep this developing system east of the Gulf due to southwesterly upper level winds east of the trof axis.

[cycloneye]

This set is in the 40s range both on flight level and SMFR.

URNT15 KNHC 252220
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 22 20090825
221030 2443N 06628W 9773 00318 0136 +220 +168 089050 050 048 000 00
221100 2443N 06630W 9769 00323 0136 +221 +169 090049 050 046 003 00
221130 2443N 06632W 9764 00325 0135 +222 +170 089047 049 046 000 00
221200 2443N 06634W 9770 00320 0135 +224 +172 092044 044 046 000 03
221230 2443N 06637W 9762 00327 0135 +225 +173 090044 044 046 000 00
221300 2443N 06639W 9778 00313 0135 +225 +174 090043 044 045 003 00
221330 2443N 06641W 9771 00319 0135 +225 +175 089045 045 045 001 00
221400 2443N 06643W 9767 00323 0136 +225 +176 091045 046 047 000 00
221430 2443N 06645W 9774 00317 0135 +228 +176 090047 048 049 000 00
221500 2443N 06647W 9764 00325 0135 +228 +176 089049 050 046 003 00
221530 2443N 06649W 9779 00311 0136 +225 +177 090046 048 046 000 00
221600 2443N 06651W 9767 00325 0135 +226 +177 091047 048 048 000 00
221630 2443N 06653W 9772 00320 0135 +228 +176 090044 046 045 000 03
221700 2443N 06656W 9775 00315 0135 +230 +177 086043 044 044 000 03
221730 2443N 06658W 9771 00319 0135 +230 +177 087044 045 045 000 00
221800 2442N 06700W 9770 00320 0135 +230 +177 086045 047 046 001 03
221830 2442N 06702W 9769 00321 0136 +230 +178 087044 046 043 003 00
221900 2442N 06704W 9765 00327 0137 +230 +178 086041 041 045 000 00
221930 2442N 06706W 9774 00317 0137 +230 +178 086042 043 044 000 00
222000 2442N 06708W 9772 00320 0137 +230 +179 087041 042 044 000 00

[rrm]

has that ever happened where a storm went where none of the models were showing it to go?

[storms NC]

what makes you so confident of that?

Good upper level trof over the northern Gulf into Alabama will keep this developing system east of the Gulf due to southwesterly upper level winds east of the trof axis.

Thank you I was going to say the same thing. You beat me to it.
It will go up the EC or turn out to sea.


*edited by sg to fix quotes

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC TUE AUG 25 2009

...ATLC GALE WARNING...
.ATLC LOW NEAR 23N67W 1010 MB MOVING NW 18 KT. WITHIN 150 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 27N72W
1008 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12
TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 29N74W
1006 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE S OF 31N WINDS 35 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

[cheezyWXguy]

any chance this gets in the gom?

nope.

what makes you so confident of that?

We have quite a consensus that leads this up the east coast, and assuming the synoptic setup doesn't change dramatically in the next 2 days, the high pressure to the north of this system is not strong enough far enough west to keep this thing going straight west long enough to hit the gulf. Based on its "location" it would have to move directly west to get to the gulf at a latitude that would allow it to stay over water for a decent amount of time. However, its "movement" now is 315, or NW, meaning it probably won't get there.