ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Derek Ortt]

looks like only the NOAA aircraft then. However, that is a research mission, not an LLI

[Blown Away]

Discussion Snippet:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
211 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THU-FRI...MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF
WHAT IS CURRENTLY AN INCIPIENT TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING
STAGES...THE MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR SHORT RANGE
SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST NHC/HPC COORDINATED FORECAST POINTS MOVE
THE CENTER NO FARTHER WEST THAN 76W. HENCE WE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
OUTSIDE OF THE DIRECT AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PERIPHERAL OUTER SUBSIDENCE IF IT
DEVELOPS SUFFICIENTLY.


OTHERWISE...AN UPPER CUT OFF LOW AROUND THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ON THU
MORNING IS FORECAST TO KICK EAST AND OPEN UP THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A LIGHT WIND
REGIME ON THU WILL FAVOR THE INTERIOR FOR HIGHER POPS. THE LATEST
MAV GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING
30 POPS ALONG THE COAST AND 40 INLAND...SO WILL NOT CHANGE ANYTHING.

ON FRI AS WE COME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW...POPS FOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
SHOULD INCREASE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 40-50 POPS WITH THE LATEST
MEX GUIDANCE A LITTLE HIGHER BUT WILL NOT CHANGE YET.

LASTLY...A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SURF DANGERS AND A RETURN TO A
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS POSSIBLE ON THU...DEPENDING ON HOW THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM EVOLVES.

This forecast was before the approximate 150 mile circulation center location to the SW.
This system may get closer to SFL than most think. We shall see!

[Derek Ortt]

::::cough:::: Grace 2003 ::::cough::::

recon found a closed low in Disgrace

[Derek Ortt]

oh great... another blasted UL has formed to the NW of this. Just another thing to make the forecast harder

I HATE THESE UNFORECAST UPPER LOWS!

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The above is just my current thinking and observations. Winds were found earlier to support a 50mph Tropical Storm, we just need the southern portion of the circulation to close off and bring out westerly winds.

[Aric Dunn]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The above is just my current thinking and observations. Winds were found earlier to support a 50mph Tropical Storm, we just need the southern portion of the circulation to close off and bring out westerly winds.

please people stop ... its an upper low..

the surface reelection is further west near the remaining convection to on the SW side of that circle you have..

[expat2carib]

IMO, I say this thing needs at least another 24 hours to marinate.

I agree.

[Evil Jeremy]

oh great... another blasted UL has formed to the NW of this. Just another thing to make the forecast harder

I HATE THESE UNFORECAST UPPER LOWS!

How do you think this new factor will effect the track of 92L?

[blp]

oh great... another blasted UL has formed to the NW of this. Just another thing to make the forecast harder

I HATE THESE UNFORECAST UPPER LOWS!

Yea, just noticied that. It could complicate the turn.... Seems to be moving west. What a messy situation.

[Sanibel]

The ULL is wearing it down. It can't form with the ULL right into it like it is.

[Aric Dunn]

latest quickscat..

sharp wave axis for sure..

oh yeah crossing 70W !!!!!!!!!!!!!

[wxman57]

Nothing to see here, folks. Move along. Come back tomorrow afternoon, maybe.

Good night.

[MGC]

What a complex upper air patter developing near 92L....shear, shear, shear. If a surface low does form it will be slow to get going in the short term. I guess we'll find out tomorrow when recon checks things out.......MGC

[Aric Dunn]

gfs about to shift west.. its finally initialized farther south and west..

oopen both in separate tabs and flash back and forth and you can see the difference.

18z run for 00z position...http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov ... n_000m.gif

and the 00z initial position.. that is a huge difference.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006m.gif

and finally moves off wnw instead of NW.. about time

[Derek Ortt]

the other solution is for a repeat of Gabrielle 2007

all models showed a significant East Coast hurricane. In the end, we got a sheared mess of a tropical storm

[Aric Dunn]

and at 30 hours its a good 250 miles to the SW of the 12z and 18z runs .. and moving wnw.. finally in line with the Euro and cmc ...

[sbcc]

I just heard one of our local TV meteorologists forecast - calling for rain this weekend from a tropical storm that will be moving our way up the Eastern Seaboard. This is Northern Lower Michigan.

He actually promoted that portion of his forecast in the tease - and did it again at the close of the newscast. I guess he can claim to be the first to make the call if he is right and conveniently forget to mention it if Danny goes elsewhere. It has become a pattern with his 7 day "forecasts".

Or, maybe he acquired some sooper-dooper modeling software that not even the NHC has - and he knows something they don't.

[Blown Away]

That vorticy is still spinning hard near 23N / 68W. The NHC keeps move the approximate circulation center closer and closer to that area. I wonder if that vorticy will become the LLC? That vorticy is moving west.

[Derek Ortt]

thats the UL near 68W

maybe this is going to try and form directly under the UL

[Blown Away]

I have been watching that vorticy (23N / 68.5W) all day. IMO I think this will become the LLC, look at the ball of convection near 25N / 67W getting ready to rotate around the vorticy.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html