ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Aric Dunn]

First rough call....

***** HAVE TO GET A CENTER, TO FEEL MORE CONFIDENT***

yeah that looks good..
a possible westward trend is possible, if the trough in the west is slower,weaker or both allowing it to move more westerly.

[boca]

Deltadog03 that alot further west than I would of thought even this afternoon, especially that track over Florida's east coast. It seems that the trend is west.By tomorrow will be talking the GOM.

[clfenwi]

CMC at 72h:


Ultimately depicts a run up the Carolina sounds and Chesapeake Bay, or slightly to the east thereof, up the Atlantic coast: Complete loop
(edited to include model loop)

[Aric Dunn]

We still have that trough over the GOM thru Central Florida and up towards the east coast by the Carolina's.Does that weaken and split and allow 92L to continue westward or will it cause 92L to pull a Floyd of 99.

yeah that is weaken more and more and is not going to be a major player.. at least not as of right now

[Evil Jeremy]

Delta, what are your thoughts on the new ULL to 92L's NW?

[boca]

Delta, what are your thoughts on the new ULL to 92L's NW?

Yeah Derek brought that up an hour ago and said it would complicate the track,so far no answer back on that. Inquiring minds want to know.

[clfenwi]

NOGAPS at 72h:



Eventually shows a back-door hit on Nova Scotia: Complete loop

[Aric Dunn]

Deltadog03 that alot further west than I would of thought even this afternoon, especially that track over Florida's east coast. It seems that the trend is west.By tomorrow will be talking the GOM.

well thats because most people were paying attention to the terrible gfs and its little minions which were way off with nearly everything..
euro and cmc have been consistently correctly forecast its motion so far.

[Aric Dunn]

Delta, what are your thoughts on the new ULL to 92L's NW?

Yeah Derek brought that up an hour ago and said it would complicate the track,so far no answer back on that. Inquiring minds want to know.

umm.... that is the same ull that was originally in front of 92L
it just split into the one NW and the one over it..

not some phantom ull or anything..

[boca]

In the models threat the latest from the Nogaps and CMC has this up by the N Carolina / S Carolina border in 72hrs.

[Sanibel]

Better vortex taking shape on Shortwave IR. Near 24.5N-68W

[Derek Ortt]

so far, except for CMC, the globals are going for a weaker system. Maybe the evolution of the UL (likely the one NW) is having more influence this time than previous runs

[clfenwi]

For the first time, the GFDL keeps something to track beyond six hours:

Code: Select all

WHXX04 KWBC 260519 

CHGQLM 

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR 

TROPICAL STORM INVEST    92L 

INITIAL TIME   0Z AUG 26 

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT 
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD 
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC 
OFFICIAL FORECAST. 

FORECAST STORM POSITION 


HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)   

   0            23.1             66.9           300./15.9 
   6            23.9             67.9           310./12.8 
  12            24.8             68.8           317./11.5 
  18            25.6             69.4           320./ 9.9 
  24            26.3             70.1           317./ 9.5 
  30            27.1             70.7           324./ 9.4 
  36            27.9             71.6           310./10.7 
  42            28.3             72.2           304./ 6.7 
  48            28.7             72.5           324./ 5.6 
  54            29.3             72.8           334./ 6.3 
  60            30.1             72.7             7./ 8.1 
  66            31.2             72.5             9./10.9 
  72            32.4             72.3             7./11.7 
  78            33.7             72.1            13./13.1 
  84            35.4             71.5            17./17.7 
  90            37.3             70.6            26./20.5 
  96            39.4             69.6            26./22.4 
 102             41.4             68.4            31./21.7 
 108             43.2             66.6            44./22.8 
 114             45.2             64.2            51./26.2 
 120             47.1             61.0            59./29.1 
 126             48.5             57.9            66./25.5

GFDL loop
HWRF keeps it fairly well offshore until Nova Scotia

[clfenwi]

ABNT20 KNHC 260534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER...ACCOMPANIED BY GALE FORCE WINDS...IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
IN CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME AS
IT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON MARINE WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[BigA]

Agreed about the more apparent circulation forming on shortwave-looks to be at the surface or pretty darn close. The fact that it is farther west (68 vs 65 W) means that much more of a threat to Bahamas and EC, should this turn out to be the nascent center.

I eagerly await waking up in 6 and a half hours to check.

[seussianagenda]

I'm in Norfolk, VA, in a VERY low lying area. I know some of the early tracks had this coming right up, should I be as concerned now. Thanks

[clfenwi]

Finally, the UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 24.1N 69.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2009 24.1N 69.5W WEAK
00UTC 27.08.2009 25.6N 71.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.08.2009 26.8N 72.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.08.2009 28.0N 73.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2009 29.6N 74.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.08.2009 33.5N 75.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2009 37.6N 74.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.08.2009 42.1N 70.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2009 46.7N 65.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


So to summarize, roughly left to right:

CMC: mid-North Carolina landfall
UKMET: clips Cape Cod before going to New Brunswick
NOGAPS: hits Nova Scotia on the backside
GFDL: hits Nova Scotia at southern tip
HWRF: southeastern Nova Scotia landfall
GFS: Newfoundland

[clfenwi]

I'm in Norfolk, VA, in a VERY low lying area. I know some of the early tracks had this coming right up, should I be as concerned now. Thanks

Still something you want to keep an eye on as you are in the guidance envelope. It will be a more uncertain forecast than usual until something actually develops at the surface.

[clfenwi]

Last things before I call it a night:

06Z TWD

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMED AT 25/1200 UTC WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS IN ITS VICINITY. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE REMAINED
INTACT SINCE 25/1200 UTC WITHIN 150 NM OF 23N67W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT FLEW THROUGH THIS AREA DURING THE
TIMES OF 25/1900 UTC AND 25/2100 UTC DID NOT SHOW A CLOSED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE, BUT A SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ALONG 27N65W 20N69W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO
JUST HAPPENS TO BE IN THE SAME NEIGHBORHOOD AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. SHOWERS ALSO COVER HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAY FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

Finally, a reasonably well positioned buoy, in front of the trough:

MM DD TIME WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD PRES PTDY ATMPWTMP DEWP
08 26 01:50 am ENE 19.4 23.3 8.9 7 5.5 - 29.88 -0.05 81.5 84.0 73.6
08 26 12:50 am NE 19.4 21.4 8.5 9 5.5 - 29.90 -0.04 81.9 84.0 73.4 - - -
08 25 11:50 pm ENE 21.4 31.1 8.2 9 5.6 - 29.92 -0.02 80.6 84.0 75.2 - - -
08 25 10:50 pm NE 17.5 21.4 8.5 9 5.8 - 29.93 +0.01 83.5 84.0 73.2 - - -
08 25 9:50 pm ENE 19.4 23.3 7.5 8 5.7 - 29.94 +0.02 83.8 84.0 72.3 - - -

[Kingarabian]

Give it like like 30 minutes and the NHC should update whats going on. In my pre-mature meteorological eyes we might see a tropical storm by mid Wednesday. It looks pretty good. Actually better then one of the storms in the eastern pacific. For now...