ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Windtalker1]

My guess is that with the front slowing down and now not expected to reach the EC until Sun/Mon & the center now more west, this very well could come closer to Fl.

[jlauderdal]

My guess is that with the front slowing down and now not expected to reach the EC until Sun/Mon & the center now more west, this very well could come closer to Fl.

maybe but the end result will be the same, florida spared again, last year it was the intense ridging in place that took ike south and this year its the ec trough

[Derek Ortt]

guys... it is a NEW UL that is shearing this apart. The one from yesterday is gone

The model forecasts for this new UL have been as reliable as Phil Mickelson's putting. Instead of lifting to the NE, this new UL has dropped nearly directly over the surface center

this probably does not intensify until Friday now

[Jevo]

I bet you they name it at the 5 am. Cause of it being so close in time to where it COULD hit land some where.

I loveeee when bets are made..... I fixed ya up some breakfast

Yeah I did.

Hahaha I have eatnen PLENTY in my tenure here..... Over time I have learned the hard way... Well played sir

[Jevo]

guys... it is a NEW UL that is shearing this apart. The one from yesterday is gone

The model forecasts for this new UL have been as reliable as Phil Mickelson's putting. Instead of lifting to the NE, this new UL has dropped nearly directly over the surface center

this probably does not intensify until Friday now

Derek do you forsee an offical TD/TS classification before Friday at this point?

[jpigott]

hey all, back for another hurricane season

as an interested weather watcher here in Northern Palm Beach County, Florida, 92L has started to grab my attention a little given how much further west the circulation has developed (24.5N, 70W)

when will the models be able to incorporate this info? next run?

[boca]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This system is going to pull a Floyd. Mark my words.That front will save Florida just in time. This is from the NWS Tallahassee.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY GRADUALLY
BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AT ALL LEVELS WITH
FORECAST PW`S RISING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 2.00" BY THURSDAY. THE
NAM AND 12Z EURO SHOW THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MAKING A MUCH CLOSER
APPROACH TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. BUT WITH
THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH OUR REGION...THIS SYSTEM IS SURE TO LIFT
NORTH ON FRIDAY BEFORE REACHING THE PENINSULA WITH LITTLE OR NO
IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. WHAT WE WILL SEE IS INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (LIKELY
MOST AREAS) AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES OVERHEAD COMBINED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 90 TODAY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOWER INSOLATION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION.

[Derek Ortt]

guys... it is a NEW UL that is shearing this apart. The one from yesterday is gone

The model forecasts for this new UL have been as reliable as Phil Mickelson's putting. Instead of lifting to the NE, this new UL has dropped nearly directly over the surface center

this probably does not intensify until Friday now

Derek do you forsee an offical TD/TS classification before Friday at this point?

it is a storm now (whether or not advisories are issued). I just dont see much intensification until Friday

[jpigott]

Derek, if you don't think this is going to do much in the way of intensification until Friday could that mean a track further west?

Will a sheared mess of a storm be less responsive to the steering influences that are supposed to pull this north as opposed to a stacked intensifying storm?

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track

24.6N-70.0W

AL, 92, 2009082612, , BEST, 0, 246N, 700W, 40, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Bam Models

WHXX01 KWBC 261241
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1241 UTC WED AUG 26 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20090826 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090826 1200 090827 0000 090827 1200 090828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.6N 70.0W 25.6N 72.2W 26.3N 73.9W 27.1N 75.2W
BAMD 24.6N 70.0W 25.4N 71.7W 25.9N 73.2W 26.5N 74.5W
BAMM 24.6N 70.0W 25.5N 71.8W 26.1N 73.3W 26.8N 74.5W
LBAR 24.6N 70.0W 26.0N 72.0W 27.1N 73.7W 28.6N 74.9W
SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 53KTS
DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090828 1200 090829 1200 090830 1200 090831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.9N 76.0W 30.3N 75.7W 33.5N 72.5W 38.7N 69.3W
BAMD 27.8N 75.4W 32.5N 74.2W 38.4N 67.5W 44.1N 50.2W
BAMM 28.0N 75.2W 31.8N 73.9W 36.1N 68.8W 42.0N 60.2W
LBAR 30.1N 75.4W 34.0N 73.6W 40.3N 66.2W 45.9N 46.8W
SHIP 60KTS 69KTS 76KTS 73KTS
DSHP 60KTS 69KTS 76KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.6N LONCUR = 70.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 66.7W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 21.7N LONM24 = 63.3W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KWT]

Should be a tropical system today its just a case of how strong it is and what recon finds over the next few hours really.

As for the ULL, yeah its quite obvious to see the way its diving SW, though eventually once this does gain more latitude and this keeps dropping the shear should slowly lessen again, but the shear isn't going to be as favorable as some of the models expected for today and maybe tomorrow.

[Dean4Storms]

Does clearly have a LLC this morning. I believe the shear from the ULL is keeping this unstacked and therefore much like a Tropical Wave the Lower levels are steering this right now, but this should change as it organizes over the next two days.

[KWT]

Models seem to be coming into better agreement about maybe just to the east of the east coast but this really will be too close to be sure, most models only need to be about 100-200 miles further west to have a landfalling storm.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think based on low level winds and the UL low keeping the storm somewhat shallow, it will keep a more westerly component. even at the low-mid levels the flow only becomes NW. It will have to make a pretty sharp turn to completely re-curve at this point. I don't see that set up. I think it will re-curve but if it survives, it swill end up inside 25N 75W.

[HURAKAN]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261227
NOAA3 WXWXA AL92 HDOB 26 20090826
121730 2433N 07031W 6436 03847 0067 +075 -027 074006 006 999 999 03
121800 2435N 07029W 6438 03846 0066 +075 -019 083005 006 999 999 03
121830 2434N 07027W 6441 03842 0072 +072 +000 076005 006 999 999 03
121900 2433N 07025W 6429 03857 0069 +070 +022 074005 005 003 000 03
121930 2432N 07023W 6433 03851 0065 +074 +002 080004 004 999 999 03
122000 2431N 07021W 6431 03853 0067 +073 +001 115003 004 999 999 03
122030 2430N 07018W 6430 03853 0069 +072 +001 120004 004 999 999 03
122100 2430N 07016W 6432 03852 0066 +074 +000 119005 006 999 999 03
122130 2430N 07014W 6431 03855 0068 +073 +005 110007 007 999 999 03
122200 2430N 07011W 6432 03853 0067 +073 +013 108007 007 999 999 03
122230 2430N 07009W 6433 03852 0065 +074 +013 111007 007 999 999 03
122300 2430N 07006W 6433 03852 0063 +076 +011 113007 007 999 999 03
122330 2430N 07004W 6432 03853 0066 +073 +015 107006 006 999 999 03
122400 2430N 07002W 6434 03851 0067 +073 +012 109006 006 999 999 03
122430 2430N 06959W 6433 03852 0067 +073 +012 113006 006 999 999 03
122500 2430N 06957W 6434 03852 0063 +076 +009 121006 006 999 999 03
122530 2430N 06955W 6432 03853 0062 +076 +007 105006 006 999 999 03
122600 2430N 06952W 6433 03852 0062 +077 +006 095005 005 999 999 03
122630 2430N 06950W 6434 03852 0063 +076 +006 081003 004 999 999 03
122700 2430N 06948W 6433 03852 0062 +077 +006 101003 003 005 000 03

000
URNT15 KWBC 261237
NOAA3 WXWXA AL92 HDOB 27 20090826
122730 2430N 06945W 6434 03851 0060 +078 +007 095004 004 011 000 03
122800 2430N 06943W 6433 03851 0060 +077 +005 136003 003 006 000 00
122830 2430N 06940W 6433 03852 0061 +077 +004 178002 002 999 999 03
122900 2430N 06938W 6433 03855 0070 +073 +002 172004 004 999 999 03
122930 2430N 06936W 6434 03856 0077 +069 +013 159004 004 003 000 03
123000 2430N 06933W 6432 03857 0079 +067 +016 149004 004 004 000 03
123030 2430N 06931W 6434 03853 0080 +066 +017 140004 005 007 000 03
123100 2430N 06928W 6434 03853 0079 +066 +022 155004 005 999 999 03
123130 2430N 06926W 6433 03855 0080 +067 +008 144004 005 999 999 03
123200 2430N 06924W 6434 03855 0079 +068 +005 173006 007 999 999 03
123230 2430N 06921W 6434 03855 0080 +067 +006 185008 008 999 999 03
123300 2430N 06919W 6433 03856 0082 +065 +018 177008 008 999 999 03
123330 2431N 06916W 6433 03857 0084 +064 +019 186007 008 999 999 03
123400 2431N 06914W 6434 03856 0089 +062 +020 187006 007 999 999 03
123430 2431N 06911W 6434 03856 0092 +060 +020 196005 006 999 999 03
123500 2431N 06909W 6434 03856 0094 +058 +020 207006 007 999 999 03
123530 2431N 06907W 6434 03857 0098 +057 +022 217007 008 999 999 03
123600 2430N 06904W 6434 03857 0098 +057 +025 229008 008 999 999 03
123630 2430N 06902W 6434 03857 0097 +057 +025 239007 007 999 999 03
123700 2430N 06859W 6433 03857 0098 +056 +025 245007 008 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Yeah I think its quite likely this will be steered by the lower level flow and I think the models are somewhat too keen on bringing this north-west. Te next 24hrs will be very interesting, esp if it keeps the WNW motion longer then the models expect. If it does then watch the models come back west. Most now are just offshore but small changes will have this back on for North Carolina.

Also recon should show whether or not this is stacked or not, watch to see if the lower level flight finds a LLC away from where the current recon plane finds it at higher levels.

[storms NC]

No land fall now. I guess that is about it then. I was thinking that sence it wasn't going to the gulf or Fl that was why but only a few people are on. But after seeing the models taking it out to sea.

[HURAKAN]

There is the LLC