
You look at the models and they just are not correct this time (and have not been correct all week). The NHC keeps mentioning the Bahamas needs to closely monitor this system. Looking at those models above, why would the NHC even think to say that?
Throw the models out for the time being. Yes a curve to the north will happen but probably farther west closer or through the Bahamas.
As for the Carolinas, well with a system sitting to your south like this with weak ridgingin and a trough hanging out to the west, you bet you want to closely watch this one also.