ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[fsusurfer]

Yeah no doubt the media put the focus on NYC, really though the odds of a strike there are fairly remote give the positive tilt on the upper trough as it comes through, I think it'll have more of a NNE type motion to it when its going up alongside the coast then the NHC expect.

Nice, just in time for my trip to NYC next weekend.

[KWT]

Yep and it interestingly handles the features over the SE USA differently from the 0z run as well, has it holding the ULL feature back and having it a stronger feature which in turns allows Danny to get quite a bit closer to the coast then some of the other models.

[HURAKAN]

Ready to go to Danny:

757
URNT15 KNHC 261517
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 01 20090826
150800 1742N 06449W 0137 00000 0132 +308 +268 360000 000 014 000 20
150830 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0131 +307 +267 360000 000 014 000 23
150900 1742N 06449W 0135 00000 0131 +322 +266 360000 000 999 999 23
150930 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0131 +339 +265 360000 000 999 999 23
151000 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0131 +348 +265 360000 000 999 999 23
151030 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0131 +345 +264 360000 000 999 999 23
151100 1742N 06449W 0133 00000 0130 +334 +263 360000 000 999 999 23
151130 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0130 +345 +263 360000 000 999 999 23
151200 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0130 +344 +263 360000 000 999 999 23
151230 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0131 +354 +262 360000 000 999 999 23
151300 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0130 +359 +262 360000 000 999 999 23
151330 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0130 +359 +262 360000 000 999 999 23
151400 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0131 +339 +262 360000 000 999 999 23
151430 1742N 06449W 0133 00000 0130 +312 +263 360000 000 999 999 23
151500 1742N 06449W 0129 00000 0128 +295 +258 130007 011 999 999 23
151530 1742N 06448W 0013 00097 0139 +274 +242 126013 016 999 999 03
151600 1742N 06446W 9763 00345 0157 +249 +235 128013 013 999 999 03
151630 1742N 06445W 9518 00537 0118 +229 +218 122016 018 999 999 03
151700 1744N 06444W 9170 00835 0068 +215 +179 122019 019 999 999 03
151730 1745N 06443W 8738 01319 0151 +189 +162 112014 016 999 999 03
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Air force plane departing from ST Croix.

URNT15 KNHC 261517
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 01 20090826
150800 1742N 06449W 0137 00000 0132 +308 +268 360000 000 014 000 20
150830 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0131 +307 +267 360000 000 014 000 23
150900 1742N 06449W 0135 00000 0131 +322 +266 360000 000 999 999 23
150930 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0131 +339 +265 360000 000 999 999 23
151000 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0131 +348 +265 360000 000 999 999 23
151030 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0131 +345 +264 360000 000 999 999 23
151100 1742N 06449W 0133 00000 0130 +334 +263 360000 000 999 999 23
151130 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0130 +345 +263 360000 000 999 999 23
151200 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0130 +344 +263 360000 000 999 999 23
151230 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0131 +354 +262 360000 000 999 999 23
151300 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0130 +359 +262 360000 000 999 999 23
151330 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0130 +359 +262 360000 000 999 999 23
151400 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0131 +339 +262 360000 000 999 999 23
151430 1742N 06449W 0133 00000 0130 +312 +263 360000 000 999 999 23
151500 1742N 06449W 0129 00000 0128 +295 +258 130007 011 999 999 23
151530 1742N 06448W 0013 00097 0139 +274 +242 126013 016 999 999 03
151600 1742N 06446W 9763 00345 0157 +249 +235 128013 013 999 999 03
151630 1742N 06445W 9518 00537 0118 +229 +218 122016 018 999 999 03
151700 1744N 06444W 9170 00835 0068 +215 +179 122019 019 999 999 03
151730 1745N 06443W 8738 01319 0151 +189 +162 112014 016 999 999 03

[SEASON_CANCELED]

12z NAM.

I know is the NAM,but it shows a outerbanks landflall.

Also showing something in carib brewing. Time to go check out talkin tropics

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,I can post the obs while you post the graphics.

[canes04]

still moving west, I think this gets closer to Fla than everyone thinks.
The trough is a few days away and the low is still exposed and weak.

We shall see.

[Tommedic]

Would really be interested in where models initialized versus where center was located. Any thoughts? Curve might be correct but location might be off by several miles.

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN,I can post the obs while you post the graphics.

OK.

[otowntiger]

what was all this discussion about a Florida threat?? seems to me it is already on a WNW track and following quite nicely along the model tracks as of this morning.

I agree. No apparent Florida threat whatsoever.

Jeeeez Im going to have to add more crows to the pot... looks like there may be some extra helpings going around after all is said and done...... Im not saying you're going to need some... Just seem like a lot of people are making ABSOLUTE statments... This is an unorganized TC. The models don't even have a firm grasp yet....

I do miss the old days when posters (other than our resident mets and experts) would say.. "There is no threat to X and here is why I think that... (insert data here)"

There is plenty of data, pretty much every source you can think of that has this thing swinging sharply north. I don't think I need to specifically supply it all for you since i figured it was all so obvious. Maybe I should just keep my mouth shut since I'm not really telling anybody anything they don't already know.

[Air Force Met]

NHC is west of the consensus models and well west of the high res models.

Splitting the diff b/w EURO/CMC on one side...GFS/HWRF/GFDL on the other...

[HURAKAN]

Patience is required!

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261528
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 02 20090826
151800 1746N 06444W 8358 01700 0163 +164 +137 101014 014 999 999 03
151830 1748N 06445W 8116 01951 0169 +146 +122 111013 014 999 999 03
151900 1749N 06447W 7922 02164 0171 +143 +078 108011 012 999 999 03
151930 1750N 06448W 7745 02346 0161 +142 +046 137011 012 999 999 03
152000 1751N 06450W 7508 02611 0150 +135 +006 147013 014 999 999 03
152030 1752N 06452W 7303 02845 0150 +122 -019 160013 014 999 999 03
152100 1754N 06453W 7109 03070 0155 +107 -048 160016 016 999 999 03
152130 1755N 06455W 6905 03318 0162 +089 -046 160013 015 999 999 03
152200 1756N 06457W 6711 03556 0166 +074 -059 156012 012 999 999 03
152230 1756N 06459W 6543 03762 0174 +056 -064 153012 012 999 999 03
152300 1757N 06501W 6398 03947 0173 +042 -018 133012 013 999 999 03
152330 1759N 06503W 6230 04163 0176 +028 -027 113012 012 999 999 03
152400 1800N 06504W 6082 04361 0178 +013 -023 113013 013 999 999 03
152430 1802N 06506W 5945 04513 0149 +001 -037 115015 017 999 999 03
152500 1803N 06508W 5836 04659 0148 -007 -055 121018 019 999 999 03
152530 1805N 06509W 5714 04831 0148 -016 -082 131014 016 999 999 03
152600 1806N 06511W 5572 05047 0165 -029 -101 142012 012 999 999 03
152630 1808N 06513W 5462 05206 0290 -039 -101 146010 011 999 999 03
152700 1810N 06514W 5354 05365 0299 -045 -191 138008 010 999 999 03
152730 1811N 06516W 5245 05524 0306 -054 -257 142007 008 999 999 03

[KWT]

The good thing with this set-up is really can watch it all in real time, as all the features are quite evident on the larger WV imagery we have.

[flamingosun]

I read it at Eastern Us Weather, I am sorry for jumping the gun, maybe I am better off lurking...lol!

No apologies needed. Don't just lurk. You just reported what you read. Stormm2k has a policy about not calling a storm by name until it is officially called, even if every indication says it should be called.

Another lurker speaking, prompted by this encouragement - but posting only to ask a favor. . .

A couple of posts have indicated Danny will get to only Category and not post much of a threat here or there. Maybe not, BUT . . .

For the sake of the many S2K lurkers, some of whom may not be as savvy as you regular posters here, PLEASE don't downplay the possible threat of a tropical system. I had 4K in damage to my home from "mere" Tropical Storm Fay. And we were lucky. A lady we know was able to salvage only a few precious boxes of belongings from her home, which was a total loss as a result of just a Tropical Storm. In that particular neighborhood, she was not alone.

Apologies for the interruption, and a big thank you for all the great information and enlightening discussion that you guys provide.

[shah8]

Fay wasn't a very normal tropical storm. She was a landcane for a little while.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261537
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 03 20090826
152800 1813N 06518W 5155 05656 0312 -064 -212 136008 009 999 999 03
152830 1814N 06519W 5071 05791 0319 -068 -240 110010 010 999 999 03
152900 1816N 06521W 4935 05997 0331 -071 -309 137007 007 999 999 03
152930 1818N 06523W 4842 06150 0340 -073 -350 151009 011 999 999 03
153000 1819N 06524W 4738 06317 0349 -079 -351 149011 011 999 999 03
153030 1821N 06526W 4635 06490 0361 -087 -346 166009 009 999 999 03
153100 1822N 06528W 4537 06650 0367 -099 -303 174008 008 999 999 03
153130 1824N 06529W 4452 06792 0374 -109 -298 183008 008 999 999 03
153200 1825N 06531W 4367 06942 0381 -116 -312 197009 009 999 999 03
153230 1827N 06532W 4295 07066 0389 -121 -296 205006 007 999 999 03
153300 1828N 06534W 4248 07153 0398 -123 -322 191006 006 999 999 03
153330 1830N 06535W 4190 07261 0405 -131 -339 196005 005 999 999 03
153400 1831N 06537W 4136 07358 0411 -137 -331 185005 006 999 999 03
153430 1832N 06539W 4090 07446 0416 -143 -320 163006 006 999 999 03
153500 1834N 06540W 4051 07516 0423 -149 -322 164006 006 999 999 03
153530 1835N 06542W 4005 07607 0430 -157 -326 169006 007 999 999 03
153600 1837N 06543W 3960 07693 0434 -163 -326 174006 007 999 999 03
153630 1839N 06545W 3930 07744 0436 -166 -332 195006 006 999 999 03
153700 1840N 06547W 3922 07759 0438 -170 -337 180006 007 999 999 03
153730 1842N 06549W 3925 07753 0437 -170 -336 167006 006 999 999 03
$$

[anniecros]

I read it at Eastern Us Weather, I am sorry for jumping the gun, maybe I am better off lurking...lol!

No apologies needed. Don't just lurk. You just reported what you read. Stormm2k has a policy about not calling a storm by name until it is officially called, even if every indication says it should be called.

Another lurker speaking, prompted by this encouragement - but posting only to ask a favor. . .

A couple of posts have indicated Danny will get to only Category and not post much of a threat here or there. Maybe not, BUT . . .

For the sake of the many S2K lurkers, some of whom may not be as savvy as you regular posters here, PLEASE don't downplay the possible threat of a tropical system. I had 4K in damage to my home from "mere" Tropical Storm Fay. And we were lucky. A lady we know was able to salvage only a few precious boxes of belongings from her home, which was a total loss as a result of just a Tropical Storm. In that particular neighborhood, she was not alone.

Apologies for the interruption, and a big thank you for all the great information and enlightening discussion that you guys provide.

I agree, and a big Amen! I've been through several just a storms that made my life miserable. The first being Tropical Storm Jerry, that broke over my head, as I was driving home from work, through a flood zone, with a bad alternator. I really think that was the worst first hand storm experience. All the others, I was battened down and safe in my home, and the aftermath was nasty.

They don't do tropical weather very well in the Northeast. Relurking now.

[storms NC]

JMO.
WOW everyone is on the boat that it will stay off shore of the South EC. I still think it will track like Floyd. This is the first run of the models. I would wait till i see a more stable path before I would give the all clear out. it will move more to the west. How much I don't know. But the more to the west the more it would go inland at the NC coast.JMO

[curtadams]

I think Danny is currently a hybrid storm. Upper level winds are still counterclockwise, so he's a low both at upper levels and at the surface.