ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Danny reminds me a little of 2003 Ana with little convection near the center and a very sheared appearence at some stage of its existence. It seems that at the end August will be in the normal range of activity after the slow start of the season.

Reminds me of Eugune in 93. Half exposed LLC

[cycloneye]

Luchtime for me so whoever wants to continue go ahead.

URNT15 KNHC 261627
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 08 20090826
161800 2107N 06845W 3919 07747 0418 -180 -344 200014 015 015 001 00
161830 2108N 06848W 3918 07747 0418 -180 -351 201015 015 012 001 00
161900 2110N 06851W 3919 07747 0417 -180 -352 199014 014 013 001 00
161930 2111N 06853W 3918 07744 0417 -180 -339 192011 013 010 002 00
162000 2112N 06856W 3918 07748 0416 -180 -349 189011 011 009 001 00
162030 2113N 06859W 3918 07747 0416 -180 -347 183009 009 009 001 00
162100 2115N 06901W 3918 07744 0416 -180 -298 181009 010 005 003 00
162130 2116N 06904W 3919 07742 0415 -180 -320 181009 009 007 002 00
162200 2117N 06906W 3919 07745 0415 -182 -281 176009 010 011 001 00
162230 2119N 06909W 3918 07739 0415 -182 -298 167008 009 012 001 00
162300 2120N 06912W 3919 07742 0415 -180 -312 160008 008 015 001 00
162330 2121N 06914W 3919 07738 0414 -180 -323 146008 008 010 002 00
162400 2123N 06917W 3918 07745 0414 -183 -310 128008 008 014 001 00
162430 2124N 06920W 3918 07746 0414 -185 -329 109008 008 015 001 00
162500 2125N 06922W 3917 07741 0414 -181 -337 106007 008 016 001 00
162530 2126N 06925W 3917 07747 0414 -183 -328 117007 008 015 001 00
162600 2128N 06928W 3917 07747 0415 -185 -321 126005 006 007 002 00
162630 2129N 06930W 3919 07740 0414 -184 -319 124006 007 014 000 00
162700 2130N 06933W 3917 07741 0413 -185 -322 124006 006 011 001 00
162730 2132N 06936W 3919 07736 0413 -185 -322 117005 005 006 002 00
$$

[SEASON_CANCELED]

CMC 60hr

floyd

[Bocadude85]

CMC 60hr

floyd

Also has it moving very slowly...

[Jevo]

CMC 60hr

Link please. Im behind a firewall here at the office

[shah8]

That would really not be good to be slow over what is a very hot GS.

[RNGR]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCTROPATL_12z/cmc60.html

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261638
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 09 20090826
162800 2133N 06938W 3918 07743 0414 -184 -326 114006 006 008 002 00
162830 2134N 06941W 3919 07741 0412 -183 -325 128005 006 011 001 00
162900 2136N 06944W 3918 07749 0413 -188 -290 132004 004 007 002 00
162930 2137N 06947W 3919 07737 0411 -185 -310 142005 005 010 002 00
163000 2138N 06949W 3919 07739 0411 -185 -334 144006 006 008 002 00
163030 2139N 06952W 3918 07738 0410 -185 -329 150006 006 005 002 00
163100 2141N 06955W 3919 07733 0410 -185 -314 155006 006 006 002 00
163130 2142N 06957W 3918 07741 0410 -185 -314 164005 005 003 002 00
163200 2143N 07000W 3917 07740 0410 -185 -337 172004 005 005 001 00
163230 2145N 07003W 3918 07736 0409 -185 -366 161004 005 003 002 00
163300 2146N 07005W 3919 07733 0409 -185 -382 161004 004 001 002 00
163330 2147N 07008W 3919 07738 0409 -185 -384 150003 004 004 002 00
163400 2148N 07011W 3919 07737 0409 -185 -380 137004 004 011 000 00
163430 2150N 07013W 3919 07736 0409 -185 -385 124003 004 011 000 00
163500 2151N 07016W 3919 07735 0409 -182 -390 129004 005 004 002 00
163530 2152N 07019W 3919 07740 0409 -180 -385 110003 004 003 002 00
163600 2154N 07021W 3919 07734 0407 -181 -386 080003 003 002 002 00
163630 2155N 07024W 3919 07733 0407 -185 -386 084002 002 002 002 03
163700 2156N 07027W 3919 07734 0406 -185 -379 139001 001 003 002 00
163730 2157N 07029W 3919 07733 0407 -185 -377 150002 002 002 002 00
$$

[canes04]

Forward speed has slowed down, also convection firing north and east of center.
Still think he will be close to the coast of FLA.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261648
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 10 20090826
163800 2159N 07032W 3918 07736 0407 -185 -388 166003 003 005 002 03
163830 2200N 07035W 3919 07735 0407 -180 -397 145001 002 005 001 00
163900 2201N 07037W 3918 07735 0406 -180 -390 135001 002 005 001 00
163930 2203N 07040W 3919 07732 0406 -180 -388 131002 002 006 001 00
164000 2204N 07043W 3918 07731 0406 -180 -391 135003 003 006 001 00
164030 2205N 07045W 3917 07739 0406 -180 -391 141002 002 009 000 00
164100 2206N 07048W 3918 07736 0406 -180 -392 166002 002 003 002 00
164130 2208N 07051W 3919 07734 0406 -180 -387 172003 003 008 000 00
164200 2209N 07054W 3917 07740 0407 -181 -390 174003 004 002 002 00
164230 2210N 07056W 3921 07733 0406 -180 -384 170004 004 004 001 03
164300 2211N 07059W 3918 07739 0406 -179 -377 165005 005 008 000 00
164330 2213N 07102W 3918 07741 0405 -177 -379 165006 006 001 002 03
164400 2214N 07104W 3919 07733 0405 -175 -384 160005 005 003 001 00
164430 2215N 07107W 3923 07726 0406 -174 -392 164004 005 003 001 00
164500 2216N 07109W 3923 07727 0404 -173 -402 174004 005 999 999 03
164530 2218N 07112W 3921 07730 0402 -175 -400 172005 005 000 002 03
164600 2219N 07114W 3923 07726 0403 -175 -390 171004 005 002 002 03
164630 2220N 07117W 3922 07727 0403 -175 -386 165004 004 000 003 03
164700 2221N 07119W 3921 07725 0404 -175 -385 153005 005 000 002 00
164730 2222N 07122W 3922 07729 0403 -175 -383 147006 006 001 002 03
$$

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

The CMC is very impressive it has to be said, blows up the system as it heads towards the Carolinas and strengthens it overland probably due to the interaction with the upper trough, probably a process similar to what happened with Fay I'd imagine.

[Steve H.]

Generally when they slow down they are either in a col or ready to make a turn (steering week). But the GFS has him stall for a good 36 hours. Let's see how that verifies.

[RNGR]

The CMC is very impressive it has to be said, blows up the system as it heads towards the Carolinas and strengthens it overland probably due to the interaction with the upper trough, probably a process similar to what happened with Fay I'd imagine.

Also, I'd imagine that the ULL near NOLA would aid Danny's outflow. But thats saying that this CMC forecast is correct. Things will most likely look quite a bit different 60 hours from now.

[Sanibel]

I think a rightward bump has already happened.


If the ULL keeps going west and Danny turns north it could finally burst and develop.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261658
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 11 20090826
164800 2223N 07124W 3922 07728 0403 -175 -382 146007 008 003 001 00
164830 2224N 07126W 3923 07723 0403 -171 -385 147006 006 001 002 03
164900 2225N 07129W 3921 07730 0404 -172 -397 149007 007 002 001 00
164930 2227N 07131W 3922 07730 0405 -170 -407 146006 007 000 002 00
165000 2228N 07134W 4032 07520 0392 -161 -399 135008 009 003 002 00
165030 2229N 07136W 4193 07224 0374 -146 -304 123008 008 006 001 00
165100 2230N 07139W 4356 06932 0356 -130 -292 108006 006 005 002 00
165130 2231N 07141W 4517 06654 0340 -117 -246 113002 004 004 002 00
165200 2232N 07143W 4692 06362 0323 -100 -188 097002 002 004 002 00
165230 2233N 07146W 4871 06079 0313 -085 -170 049002 003 010 001 00
165300 2234N 07148W 5038 05814 0299 -068 -151 063003 004 002 002 00
165330 2235N 07150W 5055 05788 0294 -068 -134 076002 003 003 002 00
165400 2236N 07152W 5073 05754 0289 -063 -138 068003 003 002 003 03
165430 2237N 07155W 5326 05375 0269 -041 -097 088003 004 999 999 03
165500 2238N 07157W 5534 05070 0100 -020 -074 089001 002 008 001 00
165530 2239N 07159W 5703 04832 0099 -003 -059 029003 004 007 001 00
165600 2240N 07201W 5868 04589 0091 +009 -045 004002 003 007 002 00
165630 2241N 07203W 6038 04389 0108 +025 -033 357001 001 005 002 00
165700 2242N 07205W 6212 04159 0115 +042 -021 206001 002 005 002 00
165730 2243N 07207W 6387 03932 0114 +057 -010 062001 002 007 002 03
$$

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

Table 1. Progress of the average Atlantic season (1944-2005). Date upon which the following number of events would normally have occurred.

Number    Named systems    
1   July 10   
2   Aug 6    
3   Aug 20    
4   Aug 29

With the formation of Danny, now we're fine based on climatology.

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml?

[HURAKAN]

[storms NC]

Danny is moving around 295 to me. I think they will more to the west with each run.IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261707
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 12 20090826
165800 2245N 07209W 6567 03704 0117 +070 +004 310005 006 003 003 03
165830 2247N 07209W 6747 03477 0111 +087 +005 314005 006 010 001 00
165900 2248N 07210W 6936 03246 0109 +099 +018 306005 007 006 002 00
165930 2250N 07210W 6964 03211 0111 +099 +026 312008 008 007 002 00
170000 2252N 07211W 6969 03207 0110 +101 +018 314007 008 003 002 00
170030 2254N 07212W 6969 03204 0108 +100 +013 313007 007 007 001 00
170100 2256N 07212W 6969 03202 0107 +100 +015 301007 008 005 002 00
170130 2258N 07213W 6970 03201 0107 +099 +029 304009 009 008 001 00
170200 2300N 07213W 6970 03202 0107 +100 +018 305009 009 006 002 00
170230 2302N 07214W 6967 03205 0109 +099 +009 305008 008 007 001 00
170300 2303N 07214W 6970 03199 0105 +100 +011 307007 007 006 000 03
170330 2305N 07215W 6970 03200 0105 +100 +014 311007 007 004 001 00
170400 2307N 07215W 6970 03197 0106 +100 +009 322006 006 003 002 03
170430 2309N 07216W 6978 03193 0108 +101 +006 315005 005 004 002 03
170500 2311N 07216W 7209 02914 0107 +113 +027 282003 004 012 000 03
170530 2313N 07216W 7460 02627 0117 +119 +060 318004 005 009 001 03
170600 2315N 07216W 7722 02333 0120 +136 +083 295005 005 999 999 03
170630 2317N 07216W 7994 02053 0134 +144 +093 305004 005 999 999 03
170700 2319N 07216W 8265 01767 0135 +155 +126 001004 006 016 000 03
170730 2321N 07215W 8467 01559 0135 +165 +123 353003 004 009 001 03
$$