Global model runs discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO has a nice one headed west.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009082512!!/

[gatorcane]

New EURO has a nice one headed west.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009082512!!/

yeah I saw that..

[Wx_Warrior]

No tit for tat but it has it moving wnw....NE of the islands there.

[Ivanhater]

Interesting long-range synopsis for the time this might be headed west

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 02 - 08 2009

DURING WEEK TWO, THE GFS AND CANADIAN BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST TROUGHS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA, ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, AND OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND A RIDGE IS PROGGED FOR WESTERN CANADA. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS
PREDICTED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
CONUS. A WEAKNESS IN THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF COAST
REGION.

[Wx_Warrior]

Canadian is a joke. Tit for tat on movement. FYI, the "storm" is a little north during the last frame.

[Macrocane]

The Euro and Canadian are showing development between Africa and the Antilles, they've been pretty good this season, so we'll have to see if they are consistent. We may have our second major and second Cape Verde hurricane in a week or so and hopefully it will be a fish storm.

[somethingfunny]

DOUBLE POST ALERT!

I miss Ed Mahmoud.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

The 12z CMC does the same thing. I guess this will be a good test of the "new and improved" Canadian. If the new CMC isn't spinning up any more phantomcanes then within a week we should be seeing a real East Coast threat from Danny, a strengthening Erika crossing the MDR, and Fred forming out by the Cape Verdes. I don't expect perfection from the CMC...it's still just a computer model, and at 144 hours...but if we get 2/3 of the storms it's forecasting, the new CMC will have my respect. The CMC is also developing Jimena in about 3 days and Kevin in the EPAC from the current 93L soon afterwards. So there's five points upon which the improvements can be graded.

And yes, the upper level pattern does make potential Erika look like a real threat next week.

I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL AND THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST.... I AM JUST AN AMATEUR... AND AN AMATEURISH AMATEUR AT THAT!

[KWT]

What should be noted here is the models are really trending towards a movement away from the upper trough sitting near the east coast. The Bermuda high on the 12z ECM looks pretty strong and whilst the system is quite far north I think you do need to watch that sort of set-up.

We shall see what happens, funnily enough the GFS has backed off from development somewhat.

[Wx_Warrior]

It does backoff and picks up and sends towards EC.

[KWT]

Will be interesting to see what the 12z suite does with any system coming out of the Cape Verde region. Quite surprised how agressive the 12z ECM was given it had nothing on the 0z run.

[cycloneye]

The 00z model package brought mixed results as some models dont do anything like GFS,ECMWF,NOGAPS in the Eastern Atlantic,but others are bullish like CMC,UKMET.

Here is the most bullish of all,00z CMC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

00z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.4N 34.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2009 12.4N 34.7W WEAK
12UTC 29.08.2009 13.4N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2009 13.9N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2009 14.4N 43.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2009 15.5N 45.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2009 16.2N 46.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2009 16.1N 47.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[otowntiger]

It looks to me like the pattern is holding. Those two moderate looking Cape Verde cyclones scooting along with significant northern component sure look like fish candidates to me. I know folks are saying the the high will be stronger in the near future, it doesn't look any different to me in that run. This looks to me like it will be, as others have said, 'the season of recurvature' and of course that's a good thing for all as no one needs a storm, but frankly a little boring I have to admit. Maybe I can become more productive with nothing interesting happening in the tropics.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC at 8/26/09 continue to show the duo east of the Lesser Antilles.GFS has nothing of interest in the 12z run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Bocadude85]

12z CMC at 8/26/09 continue to show the duo east of the Lesser Antilles.GFS has nothing of interest in the 12z run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Also has a nice ridge building in.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS has a few decent fantom storms at 300+....CMC, goodnews. That's the minor leagues of models.

[ROCK]

GFS has a few decent fantom storms at 300+....CMC, goodnews. That's the minor leagues of models.

I would put it 2nd behind the EURO right now. Since being tweaked it does not spin up nearly as many phatom storms as it did. It did ok with Bill and is in line with Danny though the west outlier....we shall see...but all models seem to show a strong high set up as Ivan has pointed out....

[Wx_Warrior]

CMC is the Houston Astros of baseball....Every now and then wins, goes to the World Series and gets SWEPT.

If I recall, CMC had storms hitting NOLA this season.....

[vbhoutex]

CMC is the Houston Astros of baseball....Every now and then wins, goes to the World Series and gets SWEPT.

If I recall, CMC had storms hitting NOLA this season.....

Unfortunately that is a very good analysis of the Astros. I'll reserve comment on the CMC till end of season.

[Bocadude85]

CMC is the Houston Astros of baseball....Every now and then wins, goes to the World Series and gets SWEPT.

If I recall, CMC had storms hitting NOLA this season.....

As did the GFS.

[ROCK]

CMC is the Houston Astros of baseball....Every now and then wins, goes to the World Series and gets SWEPT.

If I recall, CMC had storms hitting NOLA this season.....

nice one... However Dr Masters and Derek think otherwise but we all have our opinion. Hard to discount Master's model chart for Bill. CMC surpassed them all in accuracy......