ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[artist]

At 17:48:00Z (first observation), the observation was 405 miles (651 km) to the E (90°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 17:57:30Z (last observation), the observation was 415 miles (668 km) to the E (90°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Well those Dvorak reading seems to agre with the NHC idea of this being around 40kts. I really can't see this strengthening for a little yet with the presentation it has.

[artist]

it is really hard to see where they acutally are, can you go further out on the map? Thanks!

[HURAKAN]

You can throw those Dvorak reading out of the window because we know that Dvorak doesn't work very well with sheared systems.

[Derek Ortt]

based upon the recon reports, this could open back up into a wave at anytime. We have west winds of a whole 3KT! Not saying this will open back up though. No model support for that

[wxman57]

I still think it could clip eastern Florida, I mean eastern NC. But it's definitely moving more slowly than 16 kts. We're measuring about 11-12 kts. The slower it goes, the lower the chance of a NC hit (or a FL threat). Here's a new map. Not much near the center. I doubt that there are many areas of TS winds. Probably none except to the NE-E of the center.

[fci]

FOX-25 BOSTON boldly announces their track forecast:

Ah, just curious; why would Fox Boston use Tampa as their point for distance refrence?

[artist]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

Still think models are doing a bad job with the ull over LA.......

can you give us your thoughts?

[HURAKAN]

[massweathernet]

FOX-25 BOSTON boldly announces their track forecast:

Ah, just curious; why would Fox Boston use Tampa as their point for distance refrence?

Turns out that the map was produced by FOX Tampa and then distributed to all the other Fox stations.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261807
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 18 20090826
175800 2507N 07042W 9589 00428 0077 +225 +225 099008 009 009 000 03
175830 2508N 07040W 9597 00452 0093 +228 +228 109009 009 012 000 03
175900 2510N 07039W 9590 00428 0086 +228 +228 103009 010 016 000 03
175930 2511N 07038W 9593 00455 0092 +226 +226 097009 010 013 000 03
180000 2512N 07037W 9590 00456 0099 +225 +225 093012 012 010 002 03
180030 2513N 07036W 9592 00453 0096 +225 +225 085011 012 011 004 03
180100 2514N 07034W 9591 00455 0102 +227 +227 083013 013 015 002 03
180130 2515N 07033W 9590 00457 0101 +229 +228 085014 014 012 002 03
180200 2516N 07032W 9592 00454 0101 +230 +226 081014 015 999 999 03
180230 2517N 07031W 9592 00453 0099 +230 +230 085015 015 012 002 03
180300 2518N 07030W 9591 00455 0101 +226 +226 094015 015 020 000 03
180330 2519N 07029W 9590 00456 0101 +228 +228 100015 016 021 000 03
180400 2520N 07028W 9590 00456 0093 +229 +229 104016 017 014 003 03
180430 2521N 07026W 9592 00455 0094 +229 +229 099016 016 022 001 03
180500 2522N 07025W 9592 00456 0097 +226 +226 098017 018 019 001 03
180530 2523N 07024W 9589 00427 0090 +224 +224 106017 017 022 002 03
180600 2524N 07023W 9591 00456 0094 +221 +221 103017 018 024 000 03
180630 2525N 07022W 9593 00455 0098 +220 +220 100020 021 999 999 03
180700 2526N 07021W 9591 00427 0100 +226 +226 103021 022 021 001 03
180730 2527N 07019W 9589 00429 0091 +227 +227 108021 022 022 001 03
$$
;

[artist]

At 17:58:00Z (first observation), the observation was 416 miles (669 km) to the E (90°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 18:07:30Z (last observation), the observation was 440 miles (708 km) to the E (87°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Yeah Derek I have to admit it seems to be really having a hard time with the southern side of that LLC.

Also indeed the slower it moves the less chance it has of hitting NC or the east coast, however that could be balanced out by the fact the models are generally being progressive with the upper features, we shall see!

[somethingfunny]

based upon the recon reports, this could open back up into a wave at anytime. We have west winds of a whole 3KT! Not saying this will open back up though. No model support for that

Between this comment and the Fox-boldly-copies-the-NHC-track post, this is easily my favorite page in the thread thus far.

LOL!

edit: Dangit KWT you posted while I was typing. I always end up at the top of the page when it's something irrelevant, and at the bottom when I'd rather not be there.

[otowntiger]

Danny looking pretty pathetic rat now. I doubt they will downgrade him, but he probably doesn't even deserve tropical depression status at this time.

[Air Force Met]

based upon the recon reports, this could open back up into a wave at anytime. We have west winds of a whole 3KT! Not saying this will open back up though. No model support for that

We have lots of W-NW winds at 7-10 kts as far as 100+ miles south of the center. Not close to opening up...

[tolakram]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

I can't see how anyone can claim it's not moving NW.

[wxman57]

Danny looking pretty pathetic rat now. I doubt they will downgrade him, but he probably doesn't even deserve tropical depression status at this time.

One could argue that Danny doesn't qualify as a TD. I think the NHC was expecting that Danny would look a little "better" by now. It doesn't. But I do think that the shear will drop off on Thursday, and it could organize quickly then. Strongest winds should remain east of the track on Friday/Saturday as it moves up the coast.