Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ABOUT 300 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 25
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[msbee]

Is that really 300 miles east of us? It looks like it's right on top of us.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250116 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
916 PM AST MON AUG 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH
TUTT LOW NORTH OF PR TO BRING NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TOMORROW. TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS THE ATLC
WATERS NORTH OF PR/USVI AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WAVE TO THE EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRONG CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED. MAIN
CHALLENGE REMAINS EXTENT OF SHRA CVRG/INTENSITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE AND TUTT LOW. EARLY TRACK GUIDANCE FROM NHC
TAKES VORT CENTER NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AROUND 20N TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. GIVEN CONSISTENCY IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AND EARLY TRACK
NHC GUIDANCE IN TAKING VORT CENTER NORTH OF THE ISLANDS HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN
EXPECTED STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TOMORROW ANTICIPATE
MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO OCCUR ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF PR.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Warm and humid as wave passes to our north.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR OF PR AND SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE BAHAMAS
AND IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE HURRICANE CENTER. ONCE THIS
WAVE DOES MOVE FURTHER WEST...A RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL OCCUR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL
LIKLEY RESULT IN FAIRLY TYPICAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON AS VARYING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PASS BY THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH DAY.

A BROAD CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 31 WEST THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WAVE IS
SURROUNDED BY AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF SURGE
IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 300
MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. EARLY MORNING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
911 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2009

.UPDATE...UPDATE WINDS GRIDS IN THE LONG TERM...AND MADE SOME WX
GRIDS ALTERATIONS FOR THE SAME PERIOD. REMAINDER FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
COMPUTER MODELS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND THEN
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXIT OUR LOCAL FA. LATEST BUOY 41043 LOCATED NEAR 200 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SAINT THOMAS...INDICATED SWELL HEIGHT OF 10
FEET...HOWEVER...ARE SUBSIDING SLOWLY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
407 AM AST WED AUG 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE TRAILING BEHIND THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER WELL NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FA
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF TODAY AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TODAY...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER DAY
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SURFACE WIND FLOW...WITH ONLY LOCAL SEA
BREEZES...SHOULD ALLOW NORTH COASTAL TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE
LOWER TO EVEN LOCALLY MID 90S AGAIN TODAY. PLEASE SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL
BEGIN TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY. FOR LATER
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FOR A FEW DAYS...NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
ARE EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND IN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW...TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL EFFECTS LOCALLY
EACH DAY...TO PRODUCE INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261138
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 470 MILES EAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS IS
DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...AT
ANY TIME AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH...AND IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON MARINE WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Looks like that at 11AM Tropical Storm Danny is born...here is the latest from the NHC.
000
WTNT35 KNHC 261443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BECOMES
TROPICAL STORM DANNY...

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT
445 MILES...715 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 775 MILES...1250 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.9N 70.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

[Gustywind]

[img][/img]Looking carefully to our east...





[b]Looking at Africa...[/b]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 261057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N67W 24N69W 21N69W...MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF
24N69W IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT FLEW THROUGH THIS AREA
DURING THE TIMES FROM 25/1900 UTC UNTIL 25/2100 UTC DID NOT
SHOW A CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE, BUT THE
27N67W 21N69W SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALSO JUST HAPPENS TO BE IN THE SAME NEIGHBORHOOD
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. SHOWERS ALSO COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA FROM HAITI TO 32N BETWEEN 63W AND 75W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

..TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 12N TO 22N
MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE GOES FROM 33N35W TO 23N38W TO
18N37W AND 12N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM
15N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

A MIDDLE LATITUDE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH HAS WORKED ITS WAY
AROUND THE MORE-LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 36W/37W
TROPICAL WAVE...AND IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 15N TO 25N.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE.
IT IS NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED
IMAGERY.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION JUST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO GUATEMALA
BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST
OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS FROM 13N TO 16N
BETWEEN 80W AND AND LAND...AND FROM LAND TO 17N BETWEEN 84W
AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

THE ITCZ...
FROM 11N16W TO 13N35W 10N43W 8N50W BEYOND 8N63W IN NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N41W 10N46W 8N49W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 12N35W 8N48W 9N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 18W AND
22W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUES TO HAVE
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO A SPOT THAT IS 100 NM TO THE
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
TO 29N85W 27N93W 26N91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN
400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N68W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 16N73W TO 10N77W NEAR THE THE COLOMBIA
COAST AND THE GULF OF URABA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 88W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 33N53W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N68W...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS THE TROUGH THAT IS
ON TOP OF THE 27N67W 21N69W SURFACE TROUGH AND THE AREA OF
GALE-FORCE WINDS.

$$
MT

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED
TROPICAL STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES EAST OF NASSAU IN
THE BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON DANNY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON DANNY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT5.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261858
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST WED AUG 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...DEVELOPED A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION AND WAS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DANNY THIS MORNING. AT 11 AM AST...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES EAST OF NASSAU WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. DANNY WILL TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 MPH...AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN BEHIND T.S. DANNY FROM THE NORTHEAST.

WAS A VERY DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA...WITH ONLY FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DETECTED BY THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR ACROSS THE WATERS
SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS
AFTERNOON...DEPICTED AN AREA OF MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY STREAMING NORTHWESTWARD
FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TO THE TROPICAL
STORM DANNY. LATEST 26/1200Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED VERY WELL
THESE AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH A SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO THE UPPER
LEVELS. THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FA...PRODUCED
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT
SAN JUAN TODAY AT 1257 PM AST. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 93
SET IN 1980 AND TIED IN 2008.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DRIER AND STABLE AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE FA. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS REASONING THE SJU-GFS FORECAST
SOUNDING INDICATED A DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES FROM 1.87 INCHES EARLY
THIS MORNING TO 1.51 INCHES BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MOSTLY DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT BY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH
TO THE REGION INDUCING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE SJU-GFS LAYER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGE SUGGESTS 2.37 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION BY THAT TIME.
GOOD INDICATION THAT THE PEAK OF THE WET SEASON WILL BE WITH US VERY
SOON. STAY TUNED.

[Gustywind]

BNT20 KNHC 262333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES EAST OF NASSAU IN THE
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON DANNY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON DANNY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
13W/14W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE
AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. A MAXIMUM IN
SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL W OF THE AXIS FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 23W-27W.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
413 AM AST THU AUG 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT ONLY LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA
TODAY AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND HAVE THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE SLOWLY RETURNING TO A MORE NORMAL EAST
COMPONENT...ALBEIT 15 MPH OR LESS...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION...
WITH THE RETURN OF MORE NORMAL TRADES...WOULD EXPECT NORTH COASTAL
TEMPERATURES TO MAX OUT A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN WEDNESDAY/S
SCORCHING AND RECORD SETTING 95 DEGREES. HOWEVER...THAT SAID...
GIVEN EARLY MORNING LAUNCHING POINT OF 82 DEGREES (CURRENTLY)...
WOULD STILL EXPECT A FEW READINGS IN THE 91 TO 93 DEGREE RANGE TO
BE RECORDED. PLEASE SEE WELL PREPARED CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INTERESTING DETAILS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STILL DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS...BUT STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AROUND IN BANDS AND PATCHES IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL EFFECTS LOCALLY EACH DAY...TO
PRODUCE INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

[cycloneye]

8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

We have invest 94L at Eastern Atlantic.Lets watch the progress of this system.

[Gustywind]

94L

[img]http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E FULL&lat=14&lon=-40&zoom=1&palette=spect.pal&quality=50&width=1000&info=wv[/img]







Latest from NRL site:
20090827.1500.94LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-105N-256W. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_di ... B_PROD=1km

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271409
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1009 AM AST THU AUG 27 2009

.UPDATE...SHOWER FREE CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A GENERALLY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A VCSH OR VCTS POSSIBLE
AT TJSJ...TJPS AND TJBQ...AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS TJMZ FROM 26/17Z-26/23Z...ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR OF PR. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 271439
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1039 AM AST THU AUG 27 2009

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THIS MORNING. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED SHOWER FREE SKIES OVER
THE REGION. WINDS WERE EAST AT AT AROUND 10 MPH.

A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...THEREFORE EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...WITH ONLY A FEW DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME AS WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

$$