Strong tropical wave ssw of Cape Verde islands

[Bocadude85]

Well the main thing I think we can get from the models is that a stronger ridge will be building in starting early September. It may not be this system that makes it across but as long as that high stays strong any other system out there has the potential to may it to the CONUS. And September is the climatological peak of the season.

[ROCK]

Watch the EURO after developement. It has been pretty good this year as well as the new CMC, IMO.....

Cycloneye, can we take a tour of Texas?

[cycloneye]

The latest image.

[Sanibel]

This thing is deeply convected considering. I know what I'll be checking out first thing in the morning.

[boca]

Why isn't this 94L yet. It looks beter than Danny.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 270532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[PTrackerLA]

Will be surprised if this is not an invest by morning. Looks better than Danny did when it was named.

[somethingfunny]

Will be surprised if this is not an invest by morning. Looks better than Danny did when it was named.

Ehehe, it STILL looks better than Danny!

[littlevince]

Strong convection persisted all night

IR Loop (0000z-0830z)
(Big file 2.8Mb)



First visible (0830z)

[cycloneye]

It should be a invest sometime today.

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg

I never really knew how big this wave was until I looked at the atlantic wide shot and it hasn't fully come into view! I must say its seems about the same size of Danny.

Also Goood Morning people!

[HURAKAN]

234
ABNT20 KNHC 271140
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON DANNY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON DANNY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

The latest

[Blown Away]

It sure has dropped in latitude since coming off Africa. I think we may a long tracker out of this one and I expect an Invest status very soon. Erika are you out there?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html

[boca]

If this is to be a long tracker than it can't develop till after 50w and stay below 14n than we have a shot.

[lostsole]

What do we have a shot at? A U.S. strike, a shot at raising gas prices? A shot at crumbling our already fragile economy? I think if it stays high enough then we have a shot at avoiding a major U.S. catastrophe. I don't know about you but here on the Gulf Coast it is no longer fun or exciting to see a hurricane churning across the Atlantic. And unfortunately it looks like we are about to have one, let's hope shear can rip it apart.

[caribsue]

What do we have a shot at? A U.S. strike, a shot at raising gas prices? A shot at crumbling our already fragile economy? I think if it stays high enough then we have a shot at avoiding a major U.S. catastrophe. I don't know about you but here on the Gulf Coast it is no longer fun or exciting to see a hurricane churning across the Atlantic. And unfortunately it looks like we are about to have one, let's hope shear can rip it apart.

Agree we don't want it in our little islands either...

[jlauderdal]

If this is to be a long tracker than it can't develop till after 50w and stay below 14n than we have a shot.

fair enough, any reason why those are the parameters?

[Derek Ortt]

maybe it will be an invest when there is more than 2 closed isobars in a model for this system

[perk]

What do we have a shot at? A U.S. strike, a shot at raising gas prices? A shot at crumbling our already fragile economy? I think if it stays high enough then we have a shot at avoiding a major U.S. catastrophe. I don't know about you but here on the Gulf Coast it is no longer fun or exciting to see a hurricane churning across the Atlantic. And unfortunately it looks like we are about to have one, let's hope shear can rip it apart.

lostsole calm down this system is thousands of miles away from any US coastline,and it has'nt been declared an invest yet.