ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271603
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 19 20090827
155400 2912N 07148W 9588 00476 0127 +220 +106 106043 045 999 999 03
155430 2911N 07150W 9601 00462 0126 +222 +109 105042 046 036 003 03
155500 2910N 07151W 9595 00468 0125 +221 +112 102043 044 036 002 00
155530 2909N 07153W 9598 00467 0125 +220 +114 102045 046 036 006 00
155600 2907N 07154W 9595 00466 0123 +219 +115 103044 045 041 001 00
155630 2906N 07155W 9595 00467 0123 +218 +116 103043 044 037 000 00
155700 2905N 07157W 9594 00467 0122 +218 +117 102045 046 036 001 00
155730 2904N 07158W 9599 00459 0121 +219 +118 103046 047 037 001 00
155800 2903N 07200W 9600 00461 0121 +214 +119 100046 047 034 006 03
155830 2902N 07202W 9589 00470 0121 +210 +119 100046 048 034 004 03
155900 2901N 07204W 9594 00465 0121 +215 +118 103044 044 034 004 03
155930 2900N 07205W 9592 00466 0120 +212 +116 106044 046 033 002 03
160000 2859N 07207W 9598 00457 0121 +200 +115 107043 046 035 004 00
160030 2858N 07208W 9596 00460 0119 +207 +113 106038 041 034 004 03
160100 2856N 07209W 9596 00459 0116 +217 +111 105039 040 032 001 00
160130 2855N 07210W 9593 00460 0115 +218 +109 104039 039 030 002 00
160200 2854N 07211W 9594 00460 0115 +218 +110 104036 038 029 003 00
160230 2852N 07212W 9593 00461 0114 +217 +113 099034 036 031 002 00
160300 2851N 07213W 9593 00459 0112 +219 +116 099034 035 030 001 00
160330 2850N 07214W 9592 00460 0112 +219 +119 096035 037 031 002 00
$$

[artist]

At 15:54:00Z (first observation), the observation was 445 miles (716 km) to the NE (50°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 16:03:30Z (last observation), the observation was 409 miles (658 km) to the NE (50°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

[storms NC]

well the NHC said the circulation this morning is the best its been .. and yes i agree with that part.. dont see and reall evidence of relocation..

I agree you 100%.

[Chacor]

Regarding earlier discussion of the westward motion:
Out of interest, looking at the NHC's forecast advisory, 12z position was put at 27.5N 72.7W; 15z estimate was 27.5N 73.1W. That's a pretty big shift westward in just 3 hours (it'd have to move 270/16 kt, rather than the 310/11 in the advisory).

Also separately out of interest, the Canadians had the centre at 12z northeast of the NHC's 12z position, and adopted a more eastern track for the first 36 hours before shifting west of the NHC's track from 48 hours on.

[storms NC]

This is just the way I am seeing it. here is a map I did to show you. I maybe wrong.Very wrong and eat crow. But With each frame the confection to the east of the LLC is getting closer and Danny is trying really hard to wrap it around him.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271613
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 20 20090827
160400 2849N 07216W 9597 00454 0111 +221 +120 101035 036 032 001 00
160430 2847N 07217W 9593 00455 0110 +222 +122 099035 036 033 000 00
160500 2846N 07219W 9594 00457 0110 +220 +124 098035 035 031 000 00
160530 2845N 07220W 9594 00455 0109 +220 +126 098035 035 032 000 00
160600 2844N 07221W 9595 00454 0109 +217 +127 098033 034 031 000 00
160630 2843N 07223W 9594 00454 0108 +219 +128 099030 031 031 002 00
160700 2841N 07224W 9599 00449 0106 +222 +128 100032 034 027 002 00
160730 2840N 07226W 9593 00452 0105 +224 +128 101034 034 027 001 00
160800 2839N 07227W 9593 00454 0104 +225 +129 101032 033 027 002 00
160830 2838N 07228W 9593 00452 0104 +226 +130 100032 034 028 002 00
160900 2837N 07230W 9597 00448 0103 +227 +131 100031 031 027 001 00
160930 2835N 07231W 9593 00452 0103 +225 +133 098030 031 028 001 00
161000 2834N 07232W 9595 00448 0102 +224 +134 098030 031 027 001 00
161030 2833N 07234W 9593 00451 0101 +224 +135 095031 032 026 002 00
161100 2832N 07235W 9597 00446 0101 +221 +137 092030 031 027 001 00
161130 2831N 07237W 9593 00450 0100 +220 +138 090031 032 027 001 00
161200 2829N 07238W 9593 00449 0099 +222 +139 090032 032 027 002 00
161230 2828N 07239W 9593 00448 0099 +221 +140 089030 031 027 001 00
161300 2827N 07241W 9593 00448 0098 +223 +141 090030 031 029 000 00
161330 2826N 07242W 9592 00449 0098 +224 +141 089029 031 027 001 00
$$
;

[artist]

At 16:04:00Z (first observation), the observation was 406 miles (654 km) to the NE (50°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 16:13:30Z (last observation), the observation was 369 miles (594 km) to the NE (51°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

[Lowpressure]

Still looks very sheared to me. Good LLC but naked for now. Puzzled by the whole thing.

[tolakram]

Still looks very sheared to me. Good LLC but naked for now. Puzzled by the whole thing.

I think you had the most accurate comment when you said no one knows.

The floaters are all older pics than what you can get with some more real time sites like

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp



The LLC doesn't look too happy IMO.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271623
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 21 20090827
161400 2824N 07244W 9592 00449 0097 +225 +142 087030 030 027 000 00
161430 2823N 07245W 9593 00445 0096 +226 +142 088032 033 028 001 03
161500 2822N 07246W 9594 00445 0095 +226 +143 089029 030 027 001 00
161530 2820N 07247W 9594 00443 0094 +224 +143 087029 029 028 000 00
161600 2819N 07248W 9592 00443 0096 +226 +144 083028 029 027 001 00
161630 2817N 07249W 9594 00442 0093 +230 +144 085028 028 029 000 00
161700 2816N 07250W 9593 00443 0097 +226 +145 084027 027 025 003 03
161730 2814N 07250W 9593 00442 0099 +229 +146 085025 026 027 000 00
161800 2813N 07250W 9592 00443 0096 +226 +146 082025 026 027 000 00
161830 2811N 07251W 9597 00451 0104 +226 +147 084025 025 027 000 00
161900 2810N 07251W 9594 00453 0103 +228 +148 085024 025 027 000 00
161930 2808N 07251W 9589 00444 0096 +227 +148 081024 025 026 001 00
162000 2806N 07251W 9596 00451 0103 +228 +149 081024 024 027 000 00
162030 2805N 07252W 9596 00449 0102 +235 +149 082024 024 026 001 00
162100 2803N 07252W 9595 00450 0102 +231 +150 081024 024 028 000 03
162130 2802N 07252W 9594 00452 0102 +230 +151 079023 024 028 000 00
162200 2800N 07251W 9594 00450 0102 +228 +152 086023 024 027 000 00
162230 2759N 07251W 9596 00447 0100 +229 +153 093021 021 025 000 03
162300 2757N 07251W 9593 00450 0099 +230 +153 089020 021 023 002 00
162330 2755N 07251W 9596 00447 0099 +230 +154 087020 021 024 001 00
$$

[artist]

At 16:14:00Z (first observation), the observation was 366 miles (589 km) to the NE (51°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 16:23:30Z (last observation), the observation was 341 miles (548 km) to the NE (55°) from Nassau, Bahamas

[Lowpressure]

This is a case where it could actually decouple and be downgraded, regardless of wind speeds being reported or the obvious LLC. There are no thunderstorms at all around the center. If this LLC wins the battle, it may lose the war. One thing does seem more obvious now, is that the LLC will make it to 75 west. What structure it has when it does is the question.

[littlevince]

Strange system. Recon found a curious wind shift right over strong convection, but at a very high altitude, 8420 meters. What could this mean?

[artist]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 271633
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 22 20090827
162400 2754N 07251W 9593 00449 0099 +228 +155 085020 022 021 001 03
162430 2752N 07251W 9596 00447 0098 +231 +155 095019 019 024 000 00
162500 2751N 07251W 9592 00451 0098 +231 +155 094018 018 024 000 00
162530 2749N 07251W 9597 00446 0098 +233 +155 096018 019 019 003 03
162600 2748N 07251W 9590 00451 0096 +235 +155 096020 021 022 000 00
162630 2746N 07251W 9596 00445 0096 +235 +156 101021 021 023 000 00
162700 2745N 07251W 9593 00447 0095 +234 +157 104022 022 023 000 00
162730 2743N 07251W 9592 00449 0095 +230 +158 103021 022 024 000 00
162800 2742N 07252W 9587 00453 0093 +229 +160 099021 024 021 004 03
162830 2740N 07252W 9591 00446 0096 +215 +159 094022 023 026 002 03
162900 2739N 07252W 9593 00444 0094 +224 +156 101021 022 022 004 00
162930 2737N 07253W 9594 00443 0093 +230 +153 102018 019 023 000 03
163000 2736N 07253W 9594 00442 0092 +230 +151 108018 019 022 000 00
163030 2734N 07253W 9597 00440 0092 +230 +152 112018 019 022 000 03
163100 2733N 07254W 9592 00443 0090 +232 +154 117019 019 025 000 00
163130 2731N 07255W 9594 00441 0089 +234 +157 120017 017 022 002 03
163200 2730N 07255W 9595 00440 0089 +235 +159 123016 016 021 000 00
163230 2729N 07256W 9593 00440 0088 +236 +160 124014 015 019 000 00
163300 2727N 07257W 9597 00438 0087 +237 +162 133014 015 017 002 03
163330 2726N 07258W 9593 00440 0086 +238 +163 135014 015 019 000 00
$$

[artist]

At 16:24:00Z (first observation), the observation was 340 miles (547 km) to the NE (55°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 16:33:30Z (last observation), the observation was 317 miles (510 km) to the ENE (59°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

Strange system. Recon found a curious wind shift right over strong convection, but at a very high altitude, 8420 meters. What could this mean?

off centered image or midlevel circ..

[AtlanticWind]

Danny is a sheared system , looks to be getting pulled west by an upper low to its south

[tolakram]

cmc.. clearly taking current synoptics are taking into account a little more in this run since the ull over LA still has no moved or showed even the slightest sign of opening up actually may have become more defined. this is reflected in the more westward motion initially with the cmc.

Beautiful arcing dry slot keeping my weather dry today, even though showers were expected. That low has not budged.



loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[Stephanie]

Look how the center is becoming elongated east to west and the western inflow is disrupted.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

In my AMATEUR opinion this is because a new center is forming east of the old one and this will either merge/shift over or reform.

That's what I'm seeing as well in that loop you have attached. That new center is right under all of that convection.

[MGC]

Danny is still a mess. No convection near the circulation center. Inflow actually looks far better to the east where the majority of the convection is. Unless some convection forms near the center, I would not be surprised if the center reforms east near the convection. Nothing to sustain the current CC. ULL over Louisiana is still rather stubborn and staying put for now. The trough is much easier to spot on WV loop and is moving SE at a good clip. Lots of questions with Danny. Will another center form? If not, and convection forms around the naked swirl that is currently the center, will Danny track a bit more west than forecast since the upper pattern is rather slow to evolve over CONUS.

EDIT: apparently Recon found a midlevel circulation east of the surface circulation. Perhaps that is where Danny's center will eventually reform.....MGC