ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Gustywind]

I think that those that have not visited an island tend to forget they are there, but not purposely. I know you guys are always on my mind when anything is out there. Hopefully this one will be a fish for everyone!

tkanks i love this type of reasoning

[cycloneye]

The 12z 8/27/09 GFS embraces 94L,although it does not make it very strong as it was in the first run last saturday when it had a hurricane.Moves it NW away from islands.

Loop to 168 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Gustywind]

Let's stay on the topic my friends, here is the latest from the weather.com
Tropical Storm Danny, southeast of the U.S.
M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 27, 2009 11:25 am ET
ATLANTIC
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... m=hp_news5

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a new well developed tropical wave was located south of the Cape Verde Islands. Some slow development is possible with this wave as it moves west over the next several days.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 051130.GIF

It looks exposed but the circulation is great

[otowntiger]

The 12z 8/27/09 GFS embraces 94L,although it does not make it very strong as it was in the first run last saturday when it had a hurricane.Moves it NW away from islands.

Loop to 168 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Looking at that model its RECURVE City! Who was saying the pattern was changing? If anything according to that model the re-curvature tendancy has increased, i.e. future storms are going to be shooting north even sooner than the earlier storms.

[floridasun78]

let see what other run show but i think it too early to call 94l a fish

[cycloneye]

First runs of GFDL and HWRF (around 1:30 PM EDT) will be important to see how they track this.

[Sanibel]

I'd go with recurve if we already know we have a recurve set-up that has already shown itself with Bill.

[Evil Jeremy]

The 12z 8/27/09 GFS embraces 94L,although it does not make it very strong as it was in the first run last saturday when it had a hurricane.Moves it NW away from islands.

Loop to 168 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Looking at that model its RECURVE City! Who was saying the pattern was changing? If anything according to that model the re-curvature tendancy has increased, i.e. future storms are going to be shooting north even sooner than the earlier storms.

1 run of one model is not "Recurve City". If you are going to plan out an entire storm's track on on a single model run, your going to be eating your words. Don't put so much weight on one run, things always change.

[otowntiger]

The 12z 8/27/09 GFS embraces 94L,although it does not make it very strong as it was in the first run last saturday when it had a hurricane.Moves it NW away from islands.

Loop to 168 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Looking at that model its RECURVE City! Who was saying the pattern was changing? If anything according to that model the re-curvature tendancy has increased, i.e. future storms are going to be shooting north even sooner than the earlier storms.

1 run of one model is not "Recurve City". If you are going to plan out an entire storm's track on on a single model run, your going to be eating your words. Don't put so much weight on one run, things always change.

I understand what you are saying, but that run coupled with the weak high, the "perma trough" on the east coast, track record of this season alone, not to mention climatology, i.e. history of storms in this vicinity and I think you can at least begin to have a feeling for what this system may do. I won't be eating my words because I'm just commenting on my observations not making a prediction.

[x-y-no]

The 12z 8/27/09 GFS embraces 94L,although it does not make it very strong as it was in the first run last saturday when it had a hurricane.Moves it NW away from islands.

Loop to 168 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I'm not understanding why it's so slow days 2 - 5 ... it looks even slower than the BAMD. Not saying it's wrong, just saying I don't understand it.

[Evil Jeremy]

I understand what you are saying, but that run coupled with the weak high, the "perma trough" on the east coast, track record of this season alone, not to mention climatology, i.e. history of storms in this vicinity and I think you can at least begin to have a feeling for what this system may do. I won't be eating my words because I'm just commenting on my observations not making a prediction.

Is there a possibility that this will recurve? Defiantly. Is it likely? To early to tell. You can throw climatology out the window for the most part, because what matters is the current conditions, not what happened in the past. Yes, this may recurve, but it is waaaaaay to early to tell. Anything can happen in the tropics.

[artist]

isn't it predicted the Bermuda High may be setting up soon?

[HURAKAN]

There is more from where 94L came from

[Frank2]

Considering how strong the midwest/east coast troughs are at this point (the trough that's coming southward right now looks similar to a trough in late September than late August), it's no surprise that the high is displaced to the east, making for recurving tropical systems...

Many a season has had that happen, and it appears this season is no exception - thankfully for those in hurricane prone areas (like here)...

Frank

[HURAKAN]

The circulation appears to be at 12N and 26.5W

[cycloneye]

The 12z CMC has a hurricane moving WNW to just NE of the Leewards.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Wx_Warrior]

This is not a CMC thread. It's garbage anyway. If it were good, NOLA would have already been crushed this season. We all know the best last and this year, EURO.

Troughs are stronger this year so don't put too much emphasis on the "Bermuda High". I think it's future storms that could cause trouble to the US, not this one.

[Bocadude85]

The 12z 8/27/09 GFS embraces 94L,although it does not make it very strong as it was in the first run last saturday when it had a hurricane.Moves it NW away from islands.

Loop to 168 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Looking at that model its RECURVE City! Who was saying the pattern was changing? If anything according to that model the re-curvature tendancy has increased, i.e. future storms are going to be shooting north even sooner than the earlier storms.

Thats the GFS run.. while its not a bad model it does not always handle long term upper air patterns well. I would wait and see what the EURO shows(around 330pm today) The EURO has been the best model this year in my opinion and that is the model that was showing the Bermuda High building in.
At one time the GFS had Bill making landfall in New Orleans and South Florida.
Also I see the 12z run of the CMC has a high building in also, sending this system on a WNW course.

[Derek Ortt]

This is not a CMC thread. It's garbage anyway. If it were good, NOLA would have already been crushed this season. We all know the best last and this year, EURO.

Troughs are stronger this year so don't put too much emphasis on the "Bermuda High". I think it's future storms that could cause trouble to the US, not this one.

give me a break wx warrior. Please stop kissing the rear of the euro. The CMC was the best model for Bill. It has every right to be shown here, though I disagree with its intensity. Its track seems more plausable than the GFS