ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[BensonTCwatcher]

I am leaning toward the Wxman theory on the exposed LLC. The curvature of the low cloud pattern indicates the circ has started to weaken to me (less sharp and symmetrical). I also think it look sub-tropical now. HOWEVER, the anticyclone over the system is forming and the convective environment is improving. I am also hedging and thinking this could stack back up overnight. It's not going anywhere right now...especially FL. I am ready for the trough already...sheesh

[artist]

Danny's beginning to look better on loop to me the last few frames.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[otowntiger]

Just my amateur opinion, but what I see on the visible is convection becoming linear and the naked llcc beginning to elongate sw-ne or ssw-nne. Danny, at a minimum, is a conundrum!! Glad I don't have to forecast him!!!

Oh, and it is still not going to Florida.

Thanks for keeping us straight on that. I think you need to end every post with this reminder. Apparently some of us don't listen too well.

['CaneFreak]

Danny's beginning to look better on loop to me the last few frames.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

In what respect? LLC still looks to be 200 + miles away from deepest convection ??

[wxman57]

I am leaning toward the Wxman theory on the exposed LLC. The curvature of the low cloud pattern indicates the circ has started to weaken to me (less sharp and symmetrical). I also think it look sub-tropical now. HOWEVER, the anticyclone over the system is forming and the convective environment is improving. I am also hedging and thinking this could stack back up overnight. It's not going anywhere right now...especially FL. I am ready for the trough already...sheesh

Yes, we can see that outflow is improving over the area of convection. That's why a new center should form there. If it doesn't then Danny may die. Will be interesting to see a recon flight into Danny now.

[carolina_73]

Looks like Danny is FINALLY starting to wrap up some near the center. It's not real impressive...but it's a start. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

[Derek Ortt]

Danny's beginning to look better on loop to me the last few frames.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

looking like a better cold front, lol

in all seriousness, this storm is a massive test of my patience. Not sure how long I'll let nwhhc updates and forecasts be issued on this thing

[artist]

Danny's beginning to look better on loop to me the last few frames.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

In what respect? LLC still looks to be 200 + miles away from deepest convection ??

convection seems to be spreading to his southeast much more than earlier is what I am seeing as well as a few clouds are beginning to be pulled over his center. (or imagining)

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2009

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...
INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 73.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 73.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 73.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 74.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.7N 75.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 34.4N 74.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 38.8N 71.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 60SE 45SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 50.0N 49.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 51.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 73.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

...CENTER OF DANNY DRIFTING WESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED
FOR PART OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...
INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST OR ABOUT 295
MILES...480 KM...NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 545 MILES...875 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST AT 2 MPH...3 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN EVEN
FASTER FORWARD SPEED FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...27.5N 73.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CIRCULATION OF DANNY HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY...
WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE PREVIOUSLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
ASIDE FROM THAT...THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED. THE MAIN
CONVECTION IS IN A LINE 130-170 N MI EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE
CENTER...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE 100 N MI OR MORE FROM THE
CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE AIRCRAFT DATA...AS WELL
AS DATA FROM THE QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETERS...SUGGEST THAT
THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40-45 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 45 KT.

THE CENTER HAS MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD SINCE SUNRISE...WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 270/2. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT DANNY SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HR IN ADVANCE OF A COMPLEX DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...THE STORM SHOULD
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES...PASSING NEAR OR OVER
CAPE HATTERAS...SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WITH THE MORE
WESTERLY INITIAL POSITION...THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED
SOMEWHAT WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD AS WELL. WHILE THE TRACK IS STILL DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...
AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALL TO THE LEFT OF THE NEW TRACK. SOME
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE LEFT...TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF
THE U. S....MAY BE REQUIRED IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

DANNY REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SSM/IS TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR DANNY
IS DRY. THESE FACTORS...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT LACK OF
ORGANIZATION...SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING WILL BE SLOW AT BEST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HR. THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DANNY
TO STRENGTHEN FROM 24-36 HR AS IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDER AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. AFTER THAT...IT WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY TO NOT REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT IN 48 HR. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF STILL FORECAST DANNY TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY 36 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 27.5N 73.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 28.5N 74.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 30.7N 75.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 34.4N 74.1W 55 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 38.8N 71.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 31/1800Z 50.0N 49.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 01/1800Z 51.0N 32.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[storms NC]

Danny's beginning to look better on loop to me the last few frames.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

In what respect? LLC still looks to be 200 + miles away from deepest convection ??

convection seems to be spreading to his southeast much more than earlier is what I am seeing as well as a few clouds are beginning to be pulled over his center. (or imagining)

I said this a hour ago. and had link to it. Oh well don't matter as long as I am not the only one seeing it.

[AdamFirst]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

...CENTER OF DANNY DRIFTING WESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED
FOR PART OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...
INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS.

DANNY IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST AT 2 MPH...3 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN EVEN
FASTER FORWARD SPEED FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

[Evil Jeremy]

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...
INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

No 8 PM advisory? Or did they just forget to mention the intermediate?

[AdamFirst]

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...
INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

No 8 PM advisory? Or did they just forget to mention the intermediate?

Maybe they're waiting for Danny to move, just like the rest of us

[artist]

I said this a hour ago. and had link to it. Oh well don't matter as long as I am not the only one seeing it.

sorry, I missed it storms NC.
Good to know I am not the only one as well.

[BensonTCwatcher]

OK here's a fun little scenario (which will only be fun until something really definitive happens here):

What if Danny's LLC is elongating (tilting) NE to SW and lining up with the frontal like axis while the upper air (anticyclone) environment improves and a broader LLC form in the short term, followed by better organization later on?? We could have dual outflow channels caused by the ULL's one the NE and one to the SW

DISCLAIMER:
This is a complete wild guess by an amateur with a snowball's chance of verifying

[UpTheCreek]

Bit of a shift west and no hurricane anymore.

[storms NC]

They still don't know what is going on with danny. They are doing guess work the best they can till something happens.

My guess it would be closer to the Outerbanks then they think.JMO

[vacanechaser]

They still don't know what is going on with danny. They are doing guess work the best they can till something happens.

My guess it would be closer to the Outerbanks then they think.JMO

i agree and i think that jack believes that too... just read the discussion... he mentions possibly having to shift the track further west... also says how the center has become better defined... does not sound like a weakening center to me.. the system as a whole is a mess... but the circulation center is just fine right now... and as long as it looks as good as it does, danny will hang on...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

['CaneFreak]

They still don't know what is going on with danny. They are doing guess work the best they can till something happens.

My guess it would be closer to the Outerbanks then they think.JMO

i agree and i think that jack believes that too... just read the discussion... he mentions possibly having to shift the track further west... also says how the center has become better defined... does not sound like a weakening center to me.. the system as a whole is a mess... but the circulation center is just fine right now... and as long as it looks as good as it does, danny will hang on...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD

[OuterBanker]

I guess TPC thinks Danny will go from going nowhere fast to going somewhere fast

I just wish he would get off the pot. Enough already.