SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

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Flyinman
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Summer Pattern-HOT!!!

#3661 Postby Flyinman » Wed Aug 26, 2009 12:20 pm

Looks like a line is moving in from the NE. We really need the rain but not any severe weather. It does appear the line is picking up steam as it moves to the SW though.
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#3662 Postby southerngale » Wed Aug 26, 2009 12:58 pm

There have been several warnings in the area, a lot of thunder and lightning here... for at least the past few hours, but every storm, every drop of rain, has passed either to my west or to my east, or fallen apart before it got here. This is getting old. :roll:
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#3663 Postby jasons2k » Wed Aug 26, 2009 1:06 pm

southerngale wrote:There have been several warnings in the area, a lot of thunder and lightning here... for at least the past few hours, but every storm, every drop of rain, has passed either to my west or to my east, or fallen apart before it got here. This is getting old. :roll:


I guess the curse worked :lol: Seriously, I know how u feel.

My wife is in Beaumont today so while I am hoping for some rain, I hope it doesn't impact her trip too much.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Summer Pattern-HOT!!!

#3664 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 26, 2009 1:41 pm

SW LA getting hammered by severe storms right now. I don't believe we had any chance of rain as of yesterday but now up 20%. Maybe the Lafayette area will see some action later today.
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#3665 Postby jasons2k » Wed Aug 26, 2009 2:06 pm

Good gosh, yet another solid line falls apart as soon is it moves into South Montgomery County. It's almost pointless to watch anymore. Maybe I should join a cactus forum. :roll:
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#3666 Postby jasons2k » Wed Aug 26, 2009 2:24 pm

:uarrow: OH, and they start to refire as soon as the system crosses into Harris County. Par for the course.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Summer Pattern-HOT!!!

#3667 Postby Flyinman » Wed Aug 26, 2009 2:25 pm

:uarrow:

I agree 100%, seems like I-45 has been the death to these lines coming from the NE lately. I was getting real excited, then watched it fall apart before my eyes. Yep, that is the very frustrating part. I still think The Woodlands had placed something in the atmosphere to allow for more golf days :D
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#3668 Postby southerngale » Wed Aug 26, 2009 3:24 pm

jasons, Flyinman... that's what has been happening here lately, at least most of the time. I'll join y'all at the cactus forum. Just look for my username... southernparched.
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#3669 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Aug 26, 2009 7:17 pm

southerngale wrote:jasons, Flyinman... that's what has been happening here lately, at least most of the time. I'll join y'all at the cactus forum. Just look for my username... southernparched.



You too? Not a drop for days. See ya in the cactus forum as srain'thoutx :double:
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#3670 Postby Yankeegirl » Wed Aug 26, 2009 9:12 pm

Not one drop of rain here or thunder!! what a waste of a severe thunderstorm watch!! ;) :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Summer Pattern-HOT!!!

#3671 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Aug 26, 2009 9:17 pm

Looks like we're going to have an overwhelming advantage at the cactus forum, especially if we ask our Central and South TX friends to join us!! :D
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#3672 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Wed Aug 26, 2009 11:30 pm

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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Summer Pattern-HOT!!!

#3673 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Aug 27, 2009 7:25 am

Morning e-mail for the "cactus forum" from Jeff...Central TX folks might as well join in... :ggreen:

Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue today, then increase Friday ahead of a weak frontal boundary.

Upper level low spinning over LA this morning with SE TX on the western side of the feature in a NNW flow aloft. Weak front over OK has sent a large MCS into N TX which is currently weakening…although southward moving outflow boundary is approaching Waco at this time. Recent radar images out of Dallas and Shreveport indicate re-newed development of storms just north of our northern counties and with NNW flow aloft these storms will move S to SSW into the region.

Air mass over the region is moist and unstable although PM soundings do not show tremendous amounts of moisture with PWS hovering in the 1.5 inch range. Given enough heating today, however scattered thunderstorms should develop and track S to SW across the area. Favored areas the last few days has been up north and NW and today based on radar trends seems to support this again. Short term meso models show activity continuing on past sunset tonight.

Frontal boundary pushes on southward today and tonight and should move into SE TX on Friday. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms as moisture increases and short wave in NW flow aloft moves overhead. Could see some decent coverage Friday afternoon/evening and I would expect…similar to last Friday…that some of the activity may go well past dark moving toward the coastal areas.

Other interest is what to do with the frontal boundary. Push in the upper level looks rather weak and after the failed front last weekend I think the best option is to hold the boundary along I-10 and not clear the coast. This keeps the southern ½ of the area hot and humid while the northern ½ gets a slight break in at least the humidity. Will continue at least 30% chances for thunderstorms along and south of the boundary. Models show a stronger push behind a secondary short wave to arrive on Sunday and this may shove the boundary off the coast. If so a drier air mass moves into the region for a few days. Longer range models show impressive moisture advection starting Monday PM with deep tropical air mass over the southern Gulf advecting northward along the S TX coastline. While the ECMWF is very aggressive in rain chances the GFS is showing only modest QPF…for now will take the wait and see approach…while the ECMWF makes sense the area remains in a significant drought and such favorable rain making potential for months has gone unrealized.

Tropical Storm Danny:

Danny developed yesterday east of the Bahamas from a tropical wave interacting with an upper level low. The system remains fairly disorganized and while planes have shown it is warm cored…it has some extra-tropical characteristics also…most of which is the expansive wind field to the N and E of the center instead of the strongest winds near the center. The center is largely exposed on the western side of the deepest convection.

Track:

The ill defined center has been reforming to the north overnight with each convective burst. Danny is in modest steering flow at the moment, but a turn toward the north and increase in forward speed is likely as Danny rounds the western side of the Bermuda high and a large scale trough approaches the US east coast. Main question is the trough fast enough to turn Danny enough to prevent an impact on the east coast especially the Outer Banks and Cape Cod. Track guidance is in tight agreement much like with Bill, of Danny passing offshore of the Outer Banks and then very close to Cape Cod and then a landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada. Generally speaking since most of the weather is N of E of the center this track would only have minor impacts up and down the east coast with an increase in wave action and coastal winds. Greater impacts including some minor storm surge and rainfall could impact New England.

Intensity:

Danny is in a fairly favorable environment for intensification, but the broad wind field and lack of convection near the center is resulting in only slow organization. Recon. aircraft have been reporting several 40-55kt reports and the intensity is set at 50kts (60mph). As Danny moves northward he will encounter increasingly wind shear…but will also be accelerating suggesting this shear may not create a great effect. Additionally, Danny will be crossing or moving along the eastern edge of the warm Gulf Stream. If convection can sustain near the center intensification into a hurricane is likely. NHC feels that Danny will achieve this in the next 48-72 hours.

It is interesting to note that the 14-yr average for the date of formation of the D named storm has been around August 6 (suggesting this year the D storm formed about 20 days behind this 14-yr average). When viewed from the 158-yr average however 2009 (the D-named storm) is about 7 days ahead of the typical date of formation. The last 15 years of hyper-activity in the Atlantic makes this season appear very subdued…however a longer look at the averages over 150 years suggest to this point the 2009 season is nearly average.
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#3674 Postby jasons2k » Thu Aug 27, 2009 7:38 am

Yep, I see storms already to my north moving this way....just like all week long....but there is a Hex that's obviously been cast so I'm immune to any falling liquid other than bird poop. I think those morning storms were sent out again to trick me :D
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Summer Pattern-HOT!!!

#3675 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Aug 27, 2009 12:46 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

TXZ199-210>213-226-227-237-271900-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-COLORADO-FORT BEND-HARRIS-MONTGOMERY-WALLER-WHARTON-
1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

...BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...

AT 1232 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SEALY TO KATY TO CONROE...MOVING SOUTH
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

SHORT-LIVED FUNNEL CLOUDS...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
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mpic
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Summer Pattern-HOT!!!

#3676 Postby mpic » Thu Aug 27, 2009 4:10 pm

Can I bring my yucca to the cactus forum? It has done very well this summer with no rain. My pumpkins, on the other hand, died.

It would really be interesting to know why some areas always seem to miss these storms. Terrain? Heat exhaust from a large concentration of vehicles? Something else or all of the above?
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Summer Pattern-HOT!!!

#3677 Postby southerngale » Thu Aug 27, 2009 4:44 pm

mpic wrote:Can I bring my yucca to the cactus forum? It has done very well this summer with no rain. My pumpkins, on the other hand, died.

It would really be interesting to know why some areas always seem to miss these storms. Terrain? Heat exhaust from a large concentration of vehicles? Something else or all of the above?


I think it's just coincidence. In the early part of the drought in SE TX, during spring, most people were talking about how they needed rain, and I was wanting a break from the rain. It seemed many of those isolated and/or occasional training or sitting on top of you storms were coming here. We had standing water all around here and baseball games were getting rained out (or flooded out), but the overall area was still considered dry and in need of rain. But even with these isolated storms and some people getting lucky, most of the area still needs rain.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Summer Pattern-HOT!!!

#3678 Postby mpic » Thu Aug 27, 2009 5:05 pm

Seems like an awful lot of coincidence...not just this year, though. I live closer to the Bay and wonder if that has anything to do with it. The other side of town...4-6 miles farther inland seem to get rain all the time. Atmosphere related at all? Another interesting thing is that storm cells that come across the Bay from Beaumont area turn and go SE of me. Just weird.
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#3679 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Thu Aug 27, 2009 5:07 pm

Y'all may know this but.........

I'm not sure how many of you folks love to garden but for those of you that have do water crystals can be a plant saver http://www.watercrystals.com/ (prolly not useful for yuccas and cactus however). They need to be presoaked before setting them into the ground, some have missed that step :eek: much to their dismay. I'm pretty sure I've read that they can be found on sale at gardening supply stores for a good price (the sodium cross-linked crystals supposedly last up to a dozen or more years).

They have a number of other uses as well: http://www.watercrystals.com/Other_Applications.htm I remember a number of Texans' posts saying how wonderful the neck coolers are (when working outside) http://www.watercrystals.com/crafts.htm#Cool%20wraps
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Summer Pattern-HOT!!!

#3680 Postby Flyinman » Thu Aug 27, 2009 5:52 pm

We have watched the rain come from all directions only to fizzle out miles away. The odd thing is that most of the time, it reforms just after passing tha area. Talk about frustrating. Oh and if we are "lucky" enough to get some rain, it usually is accompanied by a severe storm.
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