ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[coriolis]

Has that LLC been racking up dvorak points?

[littlevince]

It looks like the LLC jogged north as previously said, but eyes can be deceptive with this weak circulation.

A very small thunderstorm has just fired right in that place where I think the center is

[cycloneye]

Also shooting out is an outflow boundary.

[storms NC]

It looks like the LLC jogged north as previously said, but eyes can be deceptive with this weak circulation.

A very small thunderstorm has just fired right in that place where I think the center is

I don't think that is it. The LLC is about 27.3 and 73.7

[massweathernet]

:uarrow: Also shooting out is an outflow boundary.

[wxman57]

I think the whole mess will just move northward from its current position. 70 mph is probably a bit generous in the forecast. Maybe 50-60 mph. Can't see how a 50 mph easterly wind in a disorganized blob of convection over 100 miles east of a weak LLC counts as a circulation wind speed. It appears to just barely have a circulation now. I do think the LLC will reform closer to the convection tonight, though.

Still not heading for Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

Well we are off to the races. The ULL is now moveing to the east and Danny is moveing to the west. So when will the turn to the WNW be? Then NW I don't think we will see a stright North turn for 48 hours at best JMO

Oh and the ULL is more south than they thought it would be too.

yeah it looks to finally be moving.. but there is a problem E to ese motion is not exactly helpful ...

[KWT]

That most certainly looks like the center storms in NC IMO, can see the circulation pretty well with the westerly winds on the southern flank, does look pretty weak however it has to be said. Still holding on though!

[srainhoutx]

Well we are off to the races. The ULL is now moveing to the east and Danny is moveing to the west. So when will the turn to the WNW be? Then NW I don't think we will see a stright North turn for 48 hours at best JMO

Oh and the ULL is more south than they thought it would be too.

Please post a link(s) showing this so that others may learn.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

WV Imagery suggest another Upper Vort to the N. Where have we seen this before with Danny?

[storms NC]

Well we are off to the races. The ULL is now moveing to the east and Danny is moveing to the west. So when will the turn to the WNW be? Then NW I don't think we will see a stright North turn for 48 hours at best JMO

Oh and the ULL is more south than they thought it would be too.

yeah it looks to finally be moving.. but there is a problem E to ese motion is not exactly helpful ...

Guess it would be up to Danny if he wants to play with the ULL or move out of the way and move NW. The ULL can pull Danny to it or push it can do either. But know a ULL will tear him apart

[Aric Dunn]

I think the whole mess will just move northward from its current position. 70 mph is probably a bit generous in the forecast. Maybe 50-60 mph. Can't see how a 50 mph easterly wind in a disorganized blob of convection over 100 miles east of a weak LLC counts as a circulation wind speed. It appears to just barely have a circulation now. I do think the LLC will reform closer to the convection tonight, though.

Still not heading for Florida.

Im sorry but that is nothing but a guess on your part.. The NHC continues to say the circ is well established which come from actual measured DATA from recon.. also there is some convection beginning to fire near the center.. its minimal but is a change from today where there was nothing.. also posting the same thing on each page is a sort of strange, and what is this "still not heading for florida" stuff.. dont think anyone has said a Florida possibility since yesterday.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
800 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

...DISORGANIZED DANNY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 515
MILES...825 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A NORTH OR
NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY
NORTHWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...28.0N 73.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[BensonTCwatcher]

tiny convection pops are happening on the LLC and collapsing, it's meager but it indicates lift there I have not seen close to the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[BensonTCwatcher]

The ULL over LA looks like it might be starting to move NE. maybe not, but it is progged to meet Danny's latitude at the OBX. It better hurry

[CrazyC83]

Recon seems to see yet another new center at 28.2N 70.5W?

[UpTheCreek]

I think the whole mess will just move northward from its current position. 70 mph is probably a bit generous in the forecast. Maybe 50-60 mph. Can't see how a 50 mph easterly wind in a disorganized blob of convection over 100 miles east of a weak LLC counts as a circulation wind speed. It appears to just barely have a circulation now. I do think the LLC will reform closer to the convection tonight, though.

Still not heading for Florida.

Im sorry but that is nothing but a guess on your part.. The NHC continues to say the circ is well established which come from actual measured DATA from recon.. also there is some convection beginning to fire near the center.. its minimal but is a change from today where there was nothing.. also posting the same thing on each page is a sort of strange, and what is this "still not heading for florida" stuff.. dont think anyone has said a Florida possibility since yesterday.

Wow! That was called for! NOT!!!

[storms NC]

Recon seems to see yet another new center at 28.2N 70.5W?

I don't think so but will wait and see.That is a lot of Miles back and North. But I am not in the Plane.

[webke]

The ULL over LA looks like it might be starting to move NE. maybe not, but it is progged to meet Danny's latitude at the OBX. It better hurry

If thats the case it looks to me like its going to make that hard right turn

[RNGR]

I think the whole mess will just move northward from its current position. 70 mph is probably a bit generous in the forecast. Maybe 50-60 mph. Can't see how a 50 mph easterly wind in a disorganized blob of convection over 100 miles east of a weak LLC counts as a circulation wind speed. It appears to just barely have a circulation now. I do think the LLC will reform closer to the convection tonight, though.

Still not heading for Florida.

Im sorry but that is nothing but a guess on your part.. The NHC continues to say the circ is well established which come from actual measured DATA from recon.. also there is some convection beginning to fire near the center.. its minimal but is a change from today where there was nothing.. also posting the same thing on each page is a sort of strange, and what is this "still not heading for florida" stuff.. dont think anyone has said a Florida possibility since yesterday.

Someone just posted something refering to Andrew.. this is NOTHING like Andrew, there is a massive trough about to sweep through the eastern US so a florida landfall is out of the question. Also, I agree with wxman57 that Danny is pushing the limits for a tropical storm, it could make landfall and nobody would see winds higher than 25-30 mph. yes the surface circ is fairly well defined but Danny lacks structure at the other levels.

[CrazyC83]

If that is the center, it is directly below the convection...