ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[rog]

12Z GFDL is on crack I just saw it has Danny at 98 knots and 971mb on Sunday. No way Danny hits even Cat1 never mind a Cat3.

Rog

[kat61]

where did you see that?

last post on pg 58

I believe that was just an fyi-didn't say it was moving to FL. just view w/ caution because 'tis the season'! thought of more as a 'Anything can happen' rather than a 'cast'. actually helpful to us newbies to brush up on the history and dynamics of how things can change.

[wxman57]

Quite weak LLC/swirl is far-removed from any convection now, and it does appear to be moving northward. With convection diminishing, it may be hard for a center to reform. Here's a new sat pic/analysis. Just about the most poorly-organized TS I've ever seen (apologies to Grace, 2003). There are a few spots of convection north of the center (circled).




Soon as I posted this, the small storm just north of the center died. Pressure at buoy just rose to 1012.4MB and the wind is now SE at 20 kts vs. 25 kts. There's no banding, and very little circulation evident on satellite. Doesn't appear to qualify as a TS.

[deltadog03]

This looks terrible. Might be time to say adios to Danny boy

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 280104
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY3 HDOB 30 20090828
005500 2715N 07006W 6956 03241 0151 +079 +078 171030 032 999 999 03
005530 2717N 07007W 6951 03249 0152 +079 +074 174027 029 999 999 03
005600 2719N 07008W 6964 03231 0137 +089 +073 172020 021 999 999 03
005630 2721N 07009W 6945 03254 0126 +097 +071 177024 027 999 999 03
005700 2723N 07010W 6964 03230 0139 +089 +062 163029 030 999 999 03
005730 2725N 07011W 6953 03247 0152 +080 +060 166030 031 999 999 03
005800 2728N 07012W 6938 03262 0141 +085 +071 176029 031 999 999 03
005830 2730N 07013W 6957 03240 0152 +077 +076 172028 031 999 999 03
005900 2732N 07014W 6944 03258 0137 +087 +087 184020 021 999 999 03
005930 2734N 07015W 6939 03263 0138 +085 +085 188020 021 031 000 03
010000 2736N 07016W 6956 03244 0135 +090 +090 190018 019 999 999 03
010030 2738N 07017W 6962 03235 0132 +091 +091 179021 021 999 999 03
010100 2739N 07019W 6944 03259 0140 +088 +082 180022 024 999 999 03
010130 2741N 07020W 6957 03243 0135 +094 +070 185024 025 999 999 03
010200 2743N 07022W 6951 03248 0139 +089 +079 186025 026 999 999 03
010230 2745N 07023W 6966 03232 0137 +092 +072 189026 026 999 999 03
010300 2747N 07025W 6960 03240 0138 +091 +077 186025 026 999 999 03
010330 2749N 07026W 6947 03253 0139 +087 +082 188027 028 999 999 03
010400 2750N 07028W 6953 03248 0143 +087 +070 199026 026 999 999 03
010430 2752N 07029W 6963 03234 0139 +090 +075 205024 026 999 999 03

[ncweatherwizard]

This looks terrible. Might be time to say adios to Danny boy

Might be from the looks of it. But as long as it's this close to the East Coast this will remain a "tropical storm" in case it does come together.

[HURAKAN]

000
URNT15 KWBC 280044
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY3 HDOB 28 20090828
003500 2558N 06934W 6964 03242 0152 +094 +002 203021 021 006 000 03
003530 2559N 06931W 6965 03242 0154 +093 +003 203020 020 005 000 03
003600 2559N 06929W 6965 03243 0151 +095 +008 203020 020 004 000 03
003630 2600N 06927W 6968 03238 0148 +097 +006 202021 021 999 999 03
003700 2602N 06926W 6966 03240 0148 +098 +004 197020 020 999 999 03
003730 2604N 06927W 6967 03240 0149 +097 +003 197019 019 005 000 03
003800 2606N 06929W 6966 03242 0150 +097 +000 197019 020 006 000 03
003830 2608N 06930W 6965 03243 0153 +094 +002 197019 020 007 000 03
003900 2610N 06931W 6966 03241 0150 +094 +036 196018 018 999 999 03
003930 2612N 06932W 6966 03241 0150 +094 +029 192020 020 006 000 03
004000 2614N 06933W 6966 03240 0145 +098 +019 188019 020 007 000 03
004030 2616N 06935W 6966 03241 0147 +098 +016 188020 021 007 000 03
004100 2618N 06936W 6965 03241 0154 +091 +017 190021 021 999 999 03
004130 2619N 06937W 6967 03238 0154 +090 +025 191022 023 999 999 03
004200 2621N 06938W 6967 03238 0150 +094 +015 189023 023 014 000 03
004230 2623N 06940W 6966 03239 0148 +095 +019 191022 022 999 999 03
004300 2625N 06941W 6966 03238 0150 +092 +025 190023 024 999 999 03
004330 2627N 06942W 6965 03239 0149 +093 +023 186023 024 999 999 03
004400 2629N 06943W 6966 03239 0151 +092 +024 195022 022 999 999 03
004430 2631N 06945W 6968 03236 0152 +092 +019 195022 023 999 999 03

000
URNT15 KWBC 280054
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY3 HDOB 29 20090828
004500 2633N 06946W 6967 03238 0149 +094 +015 195023 023 999 999 03
004530 2635N 06947W 6967 03237 0148 +094 +015 193022 022 999 999 03
004600 2637N 06948W 6965 03237 0148 +093 +015 191023 023 999 999 03
004630 2639N 06949W 6967 03235 0150 +091 +019 189023 024 999 999 03
004700 2641N 06951W 6966 03237 0151 +091 +020 188023 023 999 999 03
004730 2643N 06952W 6966 03237 0152 +091 +011 190022 023 999 999 03
004800 2645N 06953W 6967 03235 0150 +093 +001 191022 022 999 999 03
004830 2647N 06954W 6970 03231 0144 +096 -005 192024 024 999 999 03
004900 2649N 06955W 6966 03234 0143 +096 -011 190024 025 999 999 03
004930 2651N 06956W 6967 03232 0144 +094 +011 188025 026 999 999 03
005000 2653N 06957W 6967 03232 0145 +091 +034 189026 026 999 999 03
005030 2655N 06958W 6967 03232 0152 +085 +035 186026 027 999 999 03
005100 2658N 06959W 6968 03231 0155 +082 +045 185027 028 999 999 03
005130 2700N 07000W 6967 03233 0155 +082 +052 185026 026 999 999 03
005200 2702N 07001W 6967 03232 0145 +089 +054 188025 025 999 999 03
005230 2704N 07001W 6946 03256 0147 +083 +066 183027 028 999 999 03
005300 2706N 07002W 6945 03255 0148 +081 +075 181030 031 999 999 03
005330 2708N 07003W 6950 03248 0143 +084 +078 183032 033 999 999 03
005400 2710N 07004W 6954 03243 0147 +082 +065 180032 032 999 999 03
005430 2713N 07005W 6964 03233 0149 +082 +068 175031 031 999 999 03

[wxman57]

This looks terrible. Might be time to say adios to Danny boy

Might be from the looks of it. But as long as it's this close to the East Coast this will remain a "tropical storm" in case it does come together.

Of course, can't ignore it. But I feel a lot better for the NC coast now. Can hardly make out that low-level swirl, but it appears to be moving toward about 015 deg now and accelerating. Hard to tell, though. Looking at recon, is that a max FL wind of 39 kts about 180 miles NE of the center?

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 280114
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY3 HDOB 31 20090828
010500 2754N 07031W 6979 03215 0142 +087 +080 203023 024 999 999 03
010530 2755N 07032W 6978 03215 0141 +088 +077 198019 019 999 999 03
010600 2757N 07034W 6958 03239 0138 +089 +071 197016 017 999 999 03
010630 2758N 07036W 6975 03219 0135 +094 +067 196017 019 999 999 03
010700 2759N 07038W 6945 03256 0127 +096 +075 194018 021 999 999 03
010730 2801N 07040W 6961 03238 0134 +092 +081 188020 022 040 005 03
010800 2802N 07042W 6940 03264 0132 +093 +089 175020 023 999 999 03
010830 2804N 07043W 6968 03229 0130 +097 +076 189021 021 999 999 03
010900 2806N 07045W 6963 03235 0130 +095 +080 195020 020 999 999 03
010930 2808N 07046W 6965 03233 0132 +095 +082 197021 022 999 999 03
011000 2809N 07047W 6968 03229 0134 +093 +076 198025 027 999 999 03
011030 2811N 07048W 6964 03232 0136 +090 +083 192027 028 999 999 03
011100 2813N 07050W 6969 03226 0134 +091 +088 181026 027 999 999 03
011130 2815N 07051W 6965 03230 0135 +091 +085 168020 023 999 999 03
011200 2817N 07052W 6965 03230 0131 +092 +091 191014 015 999 999 03
011230 2819N 07054W 6966 03228 0126 +095 +089 204019 022 999 999 03
011300 2821N 07055W 6965 03230 0127 +096 +079 351041 123 999 999 03
011330 2823N 07056W 6967 03229 0132 +094 +068 316006 051 999 999 03
011400 2825N 07057W 6965 03232 0135 +092 +065 191012 017 999 999 03
011430 2827N 07059W 6967 03229 0135 +092 +072 184018 019 999 999 03

[AtlanticWind]

Oh Danny boy, the pipes, the pipes are calling
From glen to glen, and down the mountain side
The summer's gone, and all the flowers are dying

And so is the convection

[littlevince]

[deltadog03]

Your right. Can't ignore it. Haha. Ull and shear have just been eating this alive.

[tolakram]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

With the Nighttime visible, or whatever they call this mode, the LLC looks to be hanging on, with new convection to the north (though this might be before what wxman is seeing).

[BensonTCwatcher]

staring at shortwave channel , don't think it's going that much N. but it's gaining lattitude now. Danny's on his way now.

[vbhoutex]

I'm glad some people can find that center because as hard as I look I can not find one now(and no it is not because I am looking at a visible in the dark!). When was recon in there last? Some of the visibles posted earlier show that it did have a definite llcc even at 5 pm, but I'm not so sure there is one now. If someone can find a current sat view that shows the center(not marked, but maybe circled) I'd like to see it.

[srainhoutx]

Thanks Pro Mets. Great discussion. ALL of you.

[BensonTCwatcher]

convection is not dying, in fact it's popping in 2 quads, but it's dying on the shear axis. nonetheless it's on it's way to date with the trough. circ is still there

[wxman57]

I'm glad some people can find that center because as hard as I look I can not find one now(and no it is not because I am looking at a visible in the dark!). When was recon in there last? Some of the visibles posted earlier show that it did have a definite llcc even at 5 pm, but I'm not so sure there is one now. If someone can find a current sat view that shows the center(not marked, but maybe circled) I'd like to see it.

I can see the spin on that loop link posted above. Looks like a northerly motion. Seems to be getting closer to that area of storms near 29.5N/73W.

[vbhoutex]

I'm glad some people can find that center because as hard as I look I can not find one now(and no it is not because I am looking at a visible in the dark!). When was recon in there last? Some of the visibles posted earlier show that it did have a definite llcc even at 5 pm, but I'm not so sure there is one now. If someone can find a current sat view that shows the center(not marked, but maybe circled) I'd like to see it.

Never mind. Thanks to tolakram for posting that loop. I had not found one that showed it, but it is still definitely there and appears to be moving N.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 280124
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY3 HDOB 32 20090828
011500 2828N 07100W 6966 03230 0136 +091 +074 182015 016 999 999 03
011530 2830N 07101W 6966 03229 0135 +091 +083 190015 015 999 999 03
011600 2832N 07102W 6966 03229 0136 +090 +078 186015 015 999 999 03
011630 2834N 07104W 6967 03228 0133 +092 +077 182016 017 999 999 03
011700 2836N 07105W 6966 03227 0133 +090 +082 157019 020 999 999 03
011730 2838N 07106W 6965 03229 0135 +089 +083 162017 017 999 999 03
011800 2840N 07107W 6966 03229 0133 +092 +081 168018 018 999 999 03
011830 2842N 07109W 6966 03229 0130 +094 +077 172018 019 999 999 03
011900 2844N 07110W 6967 03227 0129 +096 +071 173018 019 999 999 03
011930 2846N 07111W 6967 03227 0129 +095 +069 172019 019 999 999 03
012000 2848N 07112W 6967 03227 0130 +095 +070 168020 021 999 999 03
012030 2850N 07114W 6968 03225 0130 +094 +071 160021 022 999 999 03
012100 2852N 07115W 6967 03227 0128 +096 +071 161020 020 999 999 03
012130 2854N 07116W 6966 03228 0135 +089 +078 162020 020 999 999 03
012200 2856N 07117W 6967 03226 0137 +087 +081 165020 021 999 999 03
012230 2858N 07119W 6966 03227 0137 +088 +079 165021 021 999 999 03
012300 2900N 07120W 6966 03228 0133 +091 +077 162021 021 999 999 03
012330 2901N 07121W 6966 03227 0134 +090 +077 162021 021 999 999 03
012400 2903N 07123W 6966 03228 0134 +091 +075 163022 022 999 999 03
012430 2905N 07124W 6966 03228 0132 +093 +075 160022 023 999 999 03