ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Steve H.]

its way too early in the game folks. I see this tracking further west over time. This is not Bill by any means.

[KWT]

Certainly this has got a long time to do something and odds are it probably will do something, I just don't think its going to do anything just yet, wait until the easterly shear eases off some, then this one has a much better chance, like Ana did when it redeveloped.

[KWT]

Bocadude85, very true though that is rather dependant on the system being at 55W at 168hrs.

We shall see, I'm in no ways saying it will go into the weakness, esp if it can stay further south then some of the models are currently progging.

Also as with Bill it doesn't seem to have a very good fix on this systems intial starting point, but thats not here or there really.

Steve, yep and I'm having a tough time seeing it gain as much latitude as some models are progging, esp if this stays in its current state. Going to be an interesting few days, esp if that shear does lower.

[Emmett_Brown]

The easterly shear looks strong, but according to Quickscat, there is no well defined surface center yet, just an East/West elongated trough. This means that a surface center could pop up anywhere... IMO, if the current trend continues, look for a center to pop up further west where the deep convection is.

[KWT]

Yeah thats quite a big possiblity actually Emmett, and clearly if it does then that will have to shunt the forecast further west again. I suspect we will see a MLC try to devleop in the convection somewhere if it hasn't already and that may be enough to tease a LLC to develop in that region.

For now the longer it stays the weak it appears the further west it goes in the long term it seems.

[jlauderdal]

these guys are on watch

[HurricaneBelle]

these guys are on watch

And this guy is ready to order the Code Red:

[jlauderdal]

these guys are on watch

And this guy is ready to order the Code Red:

the bears are definitively a little less concerned about the system at this time, i have some more bears ready to go should the situation become more dire in the days ahead

[HURAKAN]

Stronger convection

[Blown Away]

Seems the weakness Danny leaves behind will linger for about 7 days then the high pressure starts to fill in starting after day 7. I calculate at @12mph it would take 94L @10 days to make it near the CONUS. If 94L maintains a general WNW track it will be between 60-70W in 6 days, which may be the time Danny's weakness begins to fill in. IMO, I think our NE Caribbean friends will be sweating over 94L.

[expat2carib]

Boring up till now. Gaaaaaapp

[jlauderdal]

Boring up till now. Gaaaaaapp

that guy is upset about all these recurves

[Blown Away]

Boring up till now. Gaaaaaapp

that guy is upset about all these recurves

Jlauderdal you have a replacement for your avatar!!!!

[expat2carib]

Boring up till now. Gaaaaaapp

that guy is upset about all these recurves

Yes...yes... They promise you a storm and in the end you end up hungry......

I hope, it's not going to develop.

[micktooth]

Develop, It Will...

[ROCK]

GFS Ensembles

2 camps right now and shows the uncertainy of the evolution of the 94L and if the weakness will be filling.....

I am thinking recurve but my gut is telling me a low lat tracker that takes some time to develope. JMO....

[Bocadude85]

GFS Ensembles

Seems most of those show a bend to the west at the end.

[Stormcenter]

Well I believe the consensus seems to point toward a more wnw track and eventual curve.
I know some of you folks want some close to home action but I just see this with
94L right now.


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

GFS Ensembles

Seems most of those show a bend to the west at the end.

[cycloneye]

Will focus on 94L tomorrow.

Yes 57,start to look at this system closely.

[Derek Ortt]

if the shear lets up, it will have a chance