ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[vegastar]

URNT15 KNHC 280749
AF301 0705A DANNY HDOB 34 20090828
073930 2820N 07536W 9699 00348 0091 +236 +214 310008 009 000 003 03
074000 2819N 07537W 9699 00349 0092 +237 +210 312008 008 001 001 00
074030 2817N 07539W 9699 00348 0092 +235 +214 315007 008 000 002 03
074100 2816N 07540W 9700 00348 0091 +236 +215 315007 007 000 001 00
074130 2815N 07542W 9698 00349 0092 +235 +215 318007 008 000 004 00
074200 2813N 07543W 9699 00349 0092 +235 +209 311008 008 000 003 03
074230 2812N 07544W 9699 00350 0093 +239 +208 315010 010 000 003 03
074300 2810N 07546W 9700 00348 0093 +239 +208 319010 010 000 003 00
074330 2809N 07547W 9701 00348 0094 +237 +212 320010 011 000 003 03
074400 2807N 07549W 9700 00350 0095 +238 +210 323011 011 000 002 00
074430 2806N 07550W 9700 00350 0095 +236 +211 318011 011 000 002 00
074500 2804N 07552W 9698 00353 0096 +235 +217 316010 011 004 003 00
074530 2803N 07553W 9704 00348 0096 +236 +211 322010 010 001 003 00
074600 2802N 07554W 9699 00354 0097 +236 +210 326009 009 001 001 00
074630 2800N 07556W 9697 00355 0098 +235 +212 333008 009 001 002 00
074700 2759N 07557W 9700 00353 0099 +235 +211 340009 009 000 003 03
074730 2757N 07559W 9699 00354 0099 +235 +211 341009 009 000 002 03
074800 2756N 07600W 9699 00356 0099 +235 +212 342008 009 000 004 03
074830 2755N 07602W 9665 00384 0087 +233 +202 350005 005 999 999 03
074900 2756N 07604W 9275 00729 0082 +212 +184 345005 006 999 999 03
$$

URNT15 KNHC 280759
AF301 0705A DANNY HDOB 35 20090828
074930 2757N 07605W 8814 01187 0105 +194 +154 331005 006 000 002 00
075000 2758N 07607W 8424 01577 0095 +179 +131 330002 003 000 002 03
075030 2800N 07608W 8064 01957 0094 +168 +092 333005 006 001 000 00
075100 2801N 07610W 7719 02323 0088 +150 +080 325007 009 000 003 03
075130 2802N 07611W 7407 02676 0084 +134 +058 322006 007 000 003 03
075200 2804N 07613W 7101 03034 0082 +118 +019 314009 010 000 002 03
075230 2805N 07614W 6962 03197 0077 +113 -032 309008 009 999 999 03
075300 2807N 07616W 6958 03196 0074 +111 -036 310009 009 999 999 03
075330 2808N 07618W 6966 03190 0072 +115 -033 306009 009 999 999 03
075400 2810N 07620W 6973 03182 0071 +115 -031 303009 009 999 999 03
075430 2812N 07622W 6967 03190 0073 +115 -026 305008 008 999 999 03
075500 2813N 07624W 6967 03189 0075 +115 -036 304007 008 999 999 03
075530 2815N 07626W 6967 03188 0074 +115 -041 306007 008 999 999 03
075600 2816N 07628W 6967 03190 0078 +113 -033 307007 008 999 999 03
075630 2818N 07629W 6963 03197 0081 +110 -021 314008 008 999 999 03
075700 2819N 07631W 6970 03189 0079 +113 -028 312008 009 999 999 03
075730 2821N 07633W 6963 03199 0080 +110 -015 319008 008 999 999 03
075800 2822N 07635W 6967 03191 0080 +110 +009 328008 008 002 000 03
075830 2824N 07637W 6966 03191 0077 +110 +005 327008 008 000 003 03
075900 2826N 07639W 6966 03192 0075 +112 -004 332007 008 000 001 00
$$

URNT15 KNHC 280809
AF301 0705A DANNY HDOB 36 20090828
075930 2827N 07641W 6967 03191 0074 +110 +008 335008 008 001 001 00
080000 2829N 07643W 6971 03187 0075 +112 +012 341008 008 000 001 00
080030 2831N 07644W 6966 03192 0076 +110 +015 350007 008 000 002 03
080100 2832N 07646W 6967 03189 0076 +110 +011 353008 009 000 002 03
080130 2834N 07648W 6967 03191 0075 +111 +003 354008 008 001 001 00
080200 2835N 07650W 6967 03192 0076 +113 +001 357008 008 000 001 03
080230 2837N 07652W 6967 03191 0076 +114 +002 359008 008 001 001 03
080300 2839N 07654W 6969 03190 0075 +115 +002 007008 009 000 002 00
080330 2840N 07656W 6967 03190 0080 +110 +007 014008 008 000 001 03
080400 2842N 07658W 6967 03189 0082 +106 +005 019010 011 002 001 00
080430 2843N 07700W 6966 03193 0080 +109 +006 016010 010 002 001 00
080500 2845N 07702W 6967 03193 0080 +110 -004 015010 010 000 002 00
080530 2847N 07704W 6967 03194 0082 +110 -008 013010 010 000 001 00
080600 2848N 07706W 6967 03192 0081 +110 -012 013010 011 003 000 00
080630 2850N 07708W 6966 03193 0077 +110 -014 016010 010 005 000 00
080700 2852N 07710W 6967 03192 0080 +110 -016 015010 011 001 001 00
080730 2853N 07712W 6967 03191 0080 +110 -013 011010 011 001 002 00
080800 2855N 07714W 6967 03191 0078 +111 -009 012008 009 000 002 00
080830 2857N 07716W 6967 03190 0077 +115 -004 014008 008 006 000 00
080900 2858N 07718W 6959 03195 0077 +112 -006 020008 009 005 000 00
$$

URNT15 KNHC 280819
AF301 0705A DANNY HDOB 37 20090828
080930 2900N 07720W 6746 03469 0088 +094 -012 047007 007 001 001 00
081000 2901N 07721W 6554 03707 0092 +082 -099 348004 005 002 001 00
081030 2903N 07723W 6265 04086 0090 +066 -167 322006 007 006 000 00
081100 2904N 07725W 6033 04401 0089 +045 -123 283008 009 000 002 03
081130 2906N 07727W 5838 04653 0085 +025 -139 259007 009 000 003 00
081200 2907N 07728W 5593 05018 0096 +006 -142 267003 003 000 002 03
081230 2908N 07730W 5426 05261 0297 -010 -156 275002 002 000 002 03
081300 2910N 07732W 5260 05509 0312 -028 -178 295004 005 000 002 03
081330 2911N 07733W 5107 05743 0327 -037 -188 276006 006 000 001 03
081400 2913N 07735W 4982 05939 0340 -042 -200 270004 006 000 001 03
081430 2914N 07737W 4856 06137 0354 -055 -210 248005 006 000 002 03
081500 2915N 07738W 4733 06337 0367 -068 -206 253007 007 000 002 03
081530 2917N 07740W 4622 06528 0374 -083 -210 260005 006 999 999 03
081600 2918N 07742W 4506 06719 0377 -095 -229 293005 005 000 002 03
081630 2920N 07744W 4412 06866 0381 -108 -225 288004 004 000 002 00
081700 2921N 07745W 4327 07014 0391 -118 -232 250004 006 000 003 03
081730 2923N 07747W 4238 07177 0402 -127 -253 234009 010 000 002 03
081800 2924N 07749W 4163 07311 0411 -136 -260 231010 011 000 002 03
081830 2926N 07751W 4068 07485 0424 -146 -280 239014 015 000 002 03
081900 2927N 07753W 3995 07623 0433 -158 -288 237014 014 000 003 03
$$

Mission over

[HURAKAN]

385
WTNT35 KNHC 280840
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...DANNY BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT
400 MILES...640 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT
RESTRENGTHENING TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 1008
MB...29.77 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS FROM DANNY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...29.5N 74.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


685
WTNT45 KNHC 280840
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN IN THE AREA OF DANNY
SINCE AROUND 05 UTC AND FOUND THAT DANNY IS BARELY A TROPICAL
STORM...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED ONLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS.
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF THE CENTER BEING COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO
STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. THE STRONG SHEAR NEARBY MOST LIKELY WILL
REMOVE THE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN AT ANY TIME. SINCE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE BUILDING A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...WITH A LARGE TROUGH
APPROACHING DANNY...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN THE TRANSITION
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BEST LONG-TERM ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE LARGE TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FORCE DANNY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AFTER 24 HOURS.

MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS KEEP THE CENTER OF DANNY AWAY FROM THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST...AND SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE...IT IS NOT
NECESSARY TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE REGION
CURRENTLY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CASE THE WIND FIELD BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF DANNY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OR THE
FORECAST UNEXPECTEDLY SHIFTS TO THE WEST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 29.5N 74.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 31.3N 74.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 34.2N 74.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 38.5N 71.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 42.5N 67.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 47.5N 59.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 01/0600Z 52.0N 47.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0600Z 54.0N 26.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

First visible

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 281142
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...DANNY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST...STILL MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT
355 MILES...570 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DANNY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS FROM DANNY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...30.1N 75.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[BensonTCwatcher]

Oh my goodness, NC is issuing naked swirl warnings....lol Seriously looks well west of forecast points due to center reformation. either that or a really oval shaped LLC

[wxman57]

Upper trof is fast approaching from the west. Shear's about to really increase today. Might have a chance of some strengthening if it can develop a center under that convection between 73-74W. Otherwise, it's history.

[storms NC]

He has refired in the last few. But he is still moving 320 NW. But the ULL may push him or he will go around it. But he is not moving much right now. But I can't see every well this morning. Will keep a eye on him. Hey it is better there watching the other one that is so far away. this is here and now. You never now what might happen. No it is not going to be a hurrican but it fun to watch and see what he ends up doing. He may not make it pass where he is now. I know cause it is not a Fl or Gulf storm that is why others are on the other one in hopes that that one will be. It is ashame cause this board could be better if other where more welcome passed Fl North. But for the ones that where here Thank you for staying till the ULL started moveing. A lot of in put and good Info was given.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yep, Danny will be swept up beginning today, only variables are if any convection refires before the shear really picks up. it might sneak a little further west than track before it turns N today. Gonna mess up beach day tomorrow, rip currents will be too rough to let the kids swim. onshore breeze will be stiff.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

My concern is a naked swirl over florida and then in the gulf all bets are off. But no model brings this over florida, but it isnt following the models at all. This one is hard to pin down

[apocalypt-flyer]

Pfffft. Danny is still an utter MESS or rather even moreso than before. Didn't have time to take a look at it yesterday due to an exam but it's been tackled badly by shear and won't look any better once the ULL picks it up. Time to move on and keep an eye on 94L and as long as people don't climb stupid PLATFORMS again to watch a storm or let children swim in the rough sea this hopefully won't do any major damage.

[Chacor]

From the Canadians:

WOCN31 CWHX 281200
TROPICAL STORM DANNY INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

... DANNY WEAKENED OVERNIGHT...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
30.1 N AND LONGITUDE 75.2 W... ABOUT 310 NAUTICAL MILES OR 570 KM
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, NC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS... 65 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1008 MB. DANNY IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS... 15 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 28 9.00 AM 30.1N 75.2W 1008 35 65
AUG 28 9.00 PM 32.6N 74.3W 1000 45 83
AUG 29 9.00 AM 36.4N 72.8W 1000 45 83
AUG 29 9.00 PM 40.8N 69.5W 1002 40 74
AUG 30 9.00 AM 44.2N 65.0W 1002 40 74 TRANSITIONING
AUG 30 9.00 PM 46.4N 60.6W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 31 9.00 AM 49.1N 54.4W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 31 9.00 PM 51.1N 49.5W 1004 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 01 9.00 AM 52.4N 39.6W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
EVENTUALLY DANNY WILL PRODUCE RAIN ON SUNDAY
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE AMOUNTS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
DANNY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH CANADIAN WATERS.
IT HAS NOW BECOME LESS LIKELY THAT HURRICANE WINDS WILL OCCUR
UPON ENTERING THE MARINE DISTRICT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
POSTED FOR WESTERN MARITIMES WATERS IN THE 3.00 AM MARINE
FORECAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS ON SUNDAY...THESE WARNINGS.. IF NEEDED.. WOULD NOT
BE ISSUED UNTIL 3.00 AM SATURDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
WHEN SATELLITE IMAGES RESUMED AFTER ECLIPSE DANNY APPEARED TO HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANISED WITH CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR TO THE
SURFACE CENTRE AND APPARENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
OUR EXPECTATION THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION WAS LIKELY AS THE
SHEAR DECREASED.
IT ALSO APPEARS TO BE MOVING IN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED WHEN A VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP IS AVAILABLE...
WIND REPORTS FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS TO
HAVE LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS AND INITIAL WIND SPEED FORECASTS ARE
THEREFORE REDUCED FURTHER FROM THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN.

B. PROGNOSTIC
OUR TRACK AGREES WITH NHC...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS TRACK.
MODEL FORECAST TRACKS MOSTLY MOVE DANNY ALONG THE SPINE OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THEN EASTWARDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEWFOUNDLAND. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF MODELS WHICH BRING IT SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ONE OUTLIER
BRINGS IT FURTHER WEST ACROSS CAPE COD AND THEN OVER CENTRAL NEW
BRUNSWICK.
THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME RE-STRENGTHENING AS DANNY
MOVES THROUGH WEAKENING SHEAR...WIND STRENGTH IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS AS IT PASSES TO THE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TODAY.
AFTER THAT DANNY WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL US WHICH WILL INCREASE THE FORWARD SPEED
AND STEERING IT IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AND DANNY WILL MOVE OVER THE COLDER WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MAINE ...MAKING IT LESS LIKELY THAT IT WILL ACHIEVE HURRICANE
STRENGTH...THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS KEEP IT BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH.


C. PUBLIC WEATHER
DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEMS OFTEN PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
MARITIMES AND PAST EXPERIENCE INDICATES THAT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAY BE PRODUCED. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE PRODUCING THE
EXPECTED QPFS OF 70 TO 100 MM WITH THE LOCATION OF THE MAXIMUMS
VARYING FROM MODEL TO MODEL..
IMPACTS FROM A STORM WHICH CROSSES THE COAST ARE VERY DIFFERENT
FROM ONE WHICH TRAVELS ALONG THE COAST...A STORM OF LESSER
INTENSITY CAN PRODUCE MUCH STRONGER WINDS AND CONSEQUENT DAMAGE
TO THE RIGHT OF ITS TRACK. DANNY WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY
UNTIL ITS DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK BECOME MORE APPARENT.

D. MARINE WEATHER
WIND RADII INITIALISED ON YESTERDAY MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS...
LAST NIGHTS QUIKSCAT PASS ONLY CAPTURED THE OUTER EDGES OF THE
WIND FIELD...AND MODELLED THEREAFTER FOR A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED SYSTEM.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
28/12Z 200 200 5 155 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
29/00Z 200 200 35 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
29/12Z 200 200 65 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/00Z 200 200 85 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 200 200 85 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/00Z 200 200 90 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/12Z 200 200 80 105 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/00Z 200 200 95 135 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/12Z 200 200 110 165 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END MCILDOON/HATT/MERCER

[somethingfunny]

There is absolutely nothing about Danny that I find concerning.

Except for all of the ULLs popping up out of nowhere undetected by the models, decreasing my confidence in the model forecasts....that's about the only thing that worries me out of this whole "Danny" shenanigan.

[HURAKAN]

Continues exposed

[SEASON_CANCELED]

There is absolutely nothing about Danny that I find concerning.

Except for all of the ULLs popping up out of nowhere undetected by the models, decreasing my confidence in the model forecasts....that's about the only thing that worries me out of this whole "Danny" shenanigan.

I would be very worried if some of dannys energy made it to the gulf

[wxman57]

Look at a WV loop and you'll see the upper low/trof of death approaching Danny now. And I don't think that recon has found any FL wind to support TS winds at the surface in over 24 hours. Maybe the last advisory will be written on Danny tonight when the shear gets really strong. But NHC may wait 'til Saturday to kill it.

The point I was trying to make yesterday is that though the NHC kept saying that Danny is getting better organized, there was no evidence of that. Better organized means:

1. Increasing banding (nope)
2. Convection moving closer to the center (nope - just the opposite)
3. Decreasing central pressure (nope)
4. Increasing FL and surface wind (nope - decreasing winds)

The only qualifier that the NHC seemed to be using was that the center, the low-level shallow swirl, was easier to see. It was easier to see because it was becoming less organized, not better organized.

Fortunately, Danny won't have any significant impact on the East U.S. Coast now.

[AtlanticWind]

There is absolutely nothing about Danny that I find concerning.

Except for all of the ULLs popping up out of nowhere undetected by the models, decreasing my confidence in the model forecasts....that's about the only thing that worries me out of this whole "Danny" shenanigan.

I would be very worried if some of dannys energy made it to the gulf

Well you have no worries than.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

There is absolutely nothing about Danny that I find concerning.

Except for all of the ULLs popping up out of nowhere undetected by the models, decreasing my confidence in the model forecasts....that's about the only thing that worries me out of this whole "Danny" shenanigan.

I would be very worried if some of dannys energy made it to the gulf

Well you have no worries than.

Ya not convinced. Just cant pin it down

[OuterBanker]

This reminds me of another tropical storm that hit us in the past few years. Did the same thing, no convection in the center. Beautifuk llc that passed over us where you could see the banding. The reason you could see the banding was because it was a beautiful partly cloudy day. No wind, no rain, etc. If I remember correctly Wilmington go some rain from some of the storms that were well removed from the center. It appears from Danny that all the storms and rain will remain well offshore for all.

Watching 94l now.

[storms NC]

If Danny or TD what ever stays the way it is going will put the exposed
LLC inland around North of Wilm and not the outer banks.The east of the storm stays off shore. But will be nothing to it. just another day here in NC.JMO as of what I see now. cause it is weak it is going to go into the ULL not away from. He wants to die in the ULL.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Eugene in EPAC 1993 was like this over hawaii.Aswell as chris in 2006