ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Derek Ortt]

el nino shear is westerly. This is getting easterly shear. Not el nino related at all

[Derek Ortt]

the ECMWF moved Bill so slowly because it was dead flat wrong, not because it was the only model to see a weakness

people need to stop looking at the final result and start looking at the process to reach that result. If one takes the wrong process to get a correct result, it is still wrong

[apocalypt-flyer]

This one's interesting. On Wednesday I was quite sure that this would be a TD by the weekend but as of right now, I'm not that sure. Nice bit of convection but it is a couple of miles away from the centre. As some people said, I'm sure it people would appreciate it if this got its act together a bit sooner because the longer it keeps jogging along 10N the more likely it is to make it into the Caribbean and that might be more uncomfortable viewing than 94L turning into Erika by the weekend and gaining a fair amount of latitude.

[otowntiger]

el nino shear is westerly. This is getting easterly shear. Not el nino related at all

Ok, regardless, my point, as aided by your previous comments, is that this storm may not develop for reasons I may not be able to pinpoint but the models suggest and the current non-development does say. Right now it is fighting easterly shear, whether el nino or not that is what this season seems to be all about.

[Blown Away]

All models will continue trending west as the storm doesn't develop

That does seem to be the prevalent thinking on this board. But on the other hand if it doesn't develop and continue to move west and continues to not develop, ala Ana, then there's really nothing to worry about, right? The models have backed way off on developing this thing, according to Derek, and that is probably no coincidence. There may very well be solid reasoning for this thing not developing. For one we are in an el nino year. Shear could very well harrass this thing all its life. It may take the path that everyone dreads, but if its just an unorganized blob of thunderstorms when it gets there, then there's not much to get excited over.

I think your expectations are to high, we have a decent wave w/ a low pressure way out in the eastern Atlantic. You will be disappointed majority of the time if you expect these far eastern waves to develope before 50W. It's pretty clear this wave is not going to rapidly develope and is not going to make a sudden recurve. 94L will continue on a general W to WNW path for the next few days and maybe in about 3 days we might see some development. Patience is tough for me also.

[Emmett_Brown]

Easterly shear is often associated with strong systems, so while it inhibits initially, it can often lead to development, so this type of shear is a different animal all together.

[Frank2]

People need to stop looking at the final result and start looking at the process to reach that result. If one takes the wrong process to get a correct result, it is still wrong

That's what my math teacher always told me...

=D

[otowntiger]

All models will continue trending west as the storm doesn't develop

That does seem to be the prevalent thinking on this board. But on the other hand if it doesn't develop and continue to move west and continues to not develop, ala Ana, then there's really nothing to worry about, right? The models have backed way off on developing this thing, according to Derek, and that is probably no coincidence. There may very well be solid reasoning for this thing not developing. For one we are in an el nino year. Shear could very well harrass this thing all its life. It may take the path that everyone dreads, but if its just an unorganized blob of thunderstorms when it gets there, then there's not much to get excited over.

I think your expectations are to high, we have a decent wave w/ a low pressure way out in the eastern Atlantic. You will be disappointed majority of the time if you expect these far eastern waves to develope before 50W. It's pretty clear this wave is not going to rapidly develope and is not going to make a sudden recurve. 94L will continue on a general W to WNW path for the next few days and maybe in about 3 days we might see some development. Patience is tough for me also.

I know what you're saying, but my point is to demonstrate the irony of the thinking by those that say if it develops too soon it will likelly re-curve. If it doesn't develop it will continue west. I say if it doesn't develop (and I mean ever) and heads west along that dreaded path, i.e. through the islands and toward the CONUS its just as non-threatening as if it re-curved. I think that's kind of funny. My post had nothing to do with being impatient at it's lack of excitement, although that could be another subject for a different thread.

[Evil Jeremy]

I know what you're saying, but my point is to demonstrate the irony of the thinking by those that say if it develops too soon it will likelly re-curve. If it doesn't develop it will continue west. I say if it doesn't develop (and I mean ever) and heads west along that dreaded path, i.e. through the islands and toward the CONUS its just as non-threatening as if it re-curved. I think that's kind of funny. My post had nothing to do with being impatient at it's lack of excitement, although that could be another subject for a different thread.

Just because it might not develop now does not mean that it might not develop once it gets to the Caribbean though. There are many different scenarios here.

[Frank2]

The GFS 5H run shows what might be 94L as a modest system, with a weak ridge far to the north:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

[gatorcane]

the ECMWF moved Bill so slowly because it was dead flat wrong, not because it was the only model to see a weakness

people need to stop looking at the final result and start looking at the process to reach that result. If one takes the wrong process to get a correct result, it is still wrong

Derek what are you talking about? The GFS was dead wrong with Bill initially sending it way westward towards the GOM/Caribbean/FL....ECMWF had Bill moving slower and CONSISTENTLY showed a recurve prior to getting to the Leewards. It got Bill's track correct when no other model I saw got it right that far out. The GFS did finally start showing a recurve but long after the ECMWF showed it.

You should give the ECMWF some credit with Bill.

[Evil Jeremy]

the ECMWF moved Bill so slowly because it was dead flat wrong, not because it was the only model to see a weakness

people need to stop looking at the final result and start looking at the process to reach that result. If one takes the wrong process to get a correct result, it is still wrong

Derek what are you talking about? The GFS was dead wrong with Bill initially sending it way westward towards the GOM/Caribbean/FL....ECMWF had Bill moving slower and CONSISTENTLY showed a recurve prior to getting to the Leewards. It got Bill's track correct when no other model I saw got it right that far out. The GFS did finally start showing a recurve but long after the ECMWF showed it.

You should give the ECMWF some credit seriously.

The ECMWF did get the right result with Bill, but for the wrong reasons.

[gatorcane]

It doesn't matter in the end it was right was it not? It's also had a good track record this year and last....The GFS had people quite worried for no reason.

[Stormcenter]

What makes you think it's going to make it into the Carribean anyway?
As of now I don't see this coming anywhere near that area.

I know what you're saying, but my point is to demonstrate the irony of the thinking by those that say if it develops too soon it will likelly re-curve. If it doesn't develop it will continue west. I say if it doesn't develop (and I mean ever) and heads west along that dreaded path, i.e. through the islands and toward the CONUS its just as non-threatening as if it re-curved. I think that's kind of funny. My post had nothing to do with being impatient at it's lack of excitement, although that could be another subject for a different thread.

Just because it might not develop now does not mean that it might not develop once it gets to the Caribbean though. There are many different scenarios here.

[Stormcenter]

The GFS always has people worried for no reason.

:uarrow:
It doesn't matter in the end it was right was it not? It's also had a good track record this year and last....The GFS had people quite worried for no reason with Bill.

[Frank2]

That sounds like Ike one year ago, and the railroad track plots towards South Florida that kept showing up in many model runs days in advance (all were wrong, of course)....

[otowntiger]

[quote="Stormcenter"]What makes you think it's going to make it into the Carribean anyway?
As of now I don't see this coming anywhere near that area.


Talk about missing my point!

[Evil Jeremy]

:uarrow:
It doesn't matter in the end it was right was it not? It's also had a good track record this year and last....The GFS had people quite worried for no reason.

In the end, it was right, but only because it messed up before the end. Its like cheating on a test, you would get an A on it (providing your a good cheater lol), but for the wrong reasons. The ECMWF got a little lucky.

What makes you think it's going to make it into the Carribean anyway?
As of now I don't see this coming anywhere near that area.

As I said, there are many different scenarios lol.

[Frank2]

Wow - why is everyone punching each other in the stomach over this one weak disturbance?

Guess that's a slow season for you...

[Stormcenter]

I'm sorry I didn't know there was one.

What makes you think it's going to make it into the Carribean anyway?
As of now I don't see this coming anywhere near that area.


Talk about missing my point!