ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[curtadams]

It seems to be developing pretty normally for a ITCZ-associated storm. The ITCZ east of it is bending north, which frequently precedes development by a day or two, and the E shear will relax as it moves west.

[Blown Away]

The GFS 5H run shows what might be 94L as a modest system, with a weak ridge far to the north:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

Agree, on that run the ridge is rather weak. Is that 94L entering the picture on day 9, if yes, IMO the GFS is way to slow moving 94L, no way it takes 9 days to move 94L to around 65W. Maybe that was a different low.

[otowntiger]

I'm sorry I didn't know there was one.

What makes you think it's going to make it into the Carribean anyway?
As of now I don't see this coming anywhere near that area.


Talk about missing my point!

Yeah, I'm just babbling some nonsense. Don't pay me no attention.

[Frank2]

Agree, on that run the ridge is rather weak. Is that 94L entering the picture on day 9, if yes, IMO the GFS is way to slow moving 94L, no way it takes 9 days to move 94L to around 65W. Maybe that was a different low.

Perhaps it's the wave just exiting Africa (or the one just behind it)...

Still, that weak ridge pattern might be a problem for the EC down the road...

[poof121]

Looks like an elongated circulation to me on quickscat...

[Nimbus]

Its a little early to be putting up typhoon warnings for Uwajima Japan what gives with the map overlay in the floater?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

edit: The elongated circulation may keep it from spinning up very fast until it is quite a bit further west.

[Derek Ortt]

the ECMWF moved Bill so slowly because it was dead flat wrong, not because it was the only model to see a weakness

people need to stop looking at the final result and start looking at the process to reach that result. If one takes the wrong process to get a correct result, it is still wrong

Derek what are you talking about? The GFS was dead wrong with Bill initially sending it way westward towards the GOM/Caribbean/FL....ECMWF had Bill moving slower and CONSISTENTLY showed a recurve prior to getting to the Leewards. It got Bill's track correct when no other model I saw got it right that far out. The GFS did finally start showing a recurve but long after the ECMWF showed it.

You should give the ECMWF some credit with Bill.

Gator, you would have been one who whined cried and you know what had you been in the class I TA'ed last year. You'd be quite POed when I docked you 3/4 of your points for using the wrong methods to get a right answer.

The EC had 200NM errors for 24 hour forecasts. That is dead flat wrong. I could not care less what a model does after 5 days... take a numerical analysis class to learn about error accumulation and realise that forecasts at that time period are bound to be utterly worthless.

[Blown Away]

Agree, on that run the ridge is rather weak. Is that 94L entering the picture on day 9, if yes, IMO the GFS is way to slow moving 94L, no way it takes 9 days to move 94L to around 65W. Maybe that was a different low.

Perhaps it's the wave just exiting Africa (or the one just behind it)...

Still, that weak ridge pattern might be a problem for the EC down the road...

IMO, if 94L were to reach the EC, it will be in about 9 days. So I'm thinking that GFS run did not develope 94L, but if it had IMO we would have seen 94L's low near the EC w/ that ridge pattern.

[southerngale]

Yeah, I'm just babbling some nonsense. Don't pay me no attention.

Actually, your point was pretty clear to me in the original post on the matter. I think others may have missed it because it wasn't traditional thinking for a possibly developing disturbance being eagerly watched by weather enthusiasts.

[Blown Away]

the ECMWF moved Bill so slowly because it was dead flat wrong, not because it was the only model to see a weakness

people need to stop looking at the final result and start looking at the process to reach that result. If one takes the wrong process to get a correct result, it is still wrong

Derek what are you talking about? The GFS was dead wrong with Bill initially sending it way westward towards the GOM/Caribbean/FL....ECMWF had Bill moving slower and CONSISTENTLY showed a recurve prior to getting to the Leewards. It got Bill's track correct when no other model I saw got it right that far out. The GFS did finally start showing a recurve but long after the ECMWF showed it.

You should give the ECMWF some credit with Bill.

Gator, you would have been one who whined cried and you know what had you been in the class I TA'ed last year. You'd be quite POed when I docked you 3/4 of your points for using the wrong methods to get a right answer.

The EC had 200NM errors for 24 hour forecasts. That is dead flat wrong. I could not care less what a model does after 5 days... take a numerical analysis class to learn about error accumulation and realise that forecasts at that time period are bound to be utterly worthless.

Gator, get your pencil box and go sit in the back of the class.
C- for you!!

['CaneFreak]

What is SHIPS saying this AM?

[Sanibel]

Should pull that ITCZ band into it by tomorrow and start developing. I guess we're expecting a follow-up recurve track of Bill.

[wxman57]

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/HURAKAN5/RECON/GOES11152009240svlmJn.jpg

More or less where the "center" appears to be

I agree, but that's 3 degrees west of where the models are initializing.

[HURAKAN]

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/HURAKAN5/RECON/GOES11152009240svlmJn.jpg

More or less where the "center" appears to be

I agree, but that's 3 degrees west of where the models are initializing.

Which isn't good.

[wxman57]

What is SHIPS saying this AM?

Full SHIPS model output is here:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

Direct link to the latest SHIPS output (12Z 28) is here:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt

All model guidance indicates a VERY weak Bermuda High to its north, thus the very slow west movement and NW turn east of the Caribbean. Certainly no guarantee the NE Caribbean is out of the woods, but that's encouraging.

[curtadams]

I note all the models have it weaken and go north in a few days, resulting in a miss for the islands (and probably a fish in general). That seems to be from strong southerly shear which goes almost to the coast of S. America (it's hard to distinguish the storm effects from embedded flow, but that's my interpretation). If so, forming a few hundred miles west isn't likely to have a big effect on the long term outcome - that S shear will still blow it to the open Atlantic as a weak TS at most.

[Derek Ortt]

still looks as bad as Danny. Strong shear continues to keep this in check

I'll be very surprised if this does anything

[Bocadude85]

So this went from 450mi from the CV Islands to 850mi from them in the matter of a few hours? Obviously this will have a effect on the models... not sure in what way though.

[otowntiger]

Yeah, I'm just babbling some nonsense. Don't pay me no attention.

Actually, your point was pretty clear to me in the original post on the matter. I think others may have missed it because it wasn't traditional thinking for a possibly developing disturbance being eagerly watched by weather enthusiasts.

Thanks Southerngale.

BTW it appears now that this thing may re-curve and be weak. Who'd a thunk it?

Of course anything can happen, but it is hard for some of us to accept the strong possibility that an eagerly anticipated wave that superficially appears to have all kinds of potential only to be dismissed by models and ripped by shear.

[jlauderdal]

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/HURAKAN5/RECON/GOES11152009240svlmJn.jpg

More or less where the "center" appears to be

I agree, but that's 3 degrees west of where the models are initializing.

Which isn't good.

depends on the outcome you are looking for