ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[tolakram]

I think we're lucky shear was high, because there's a lot of energy down there keeping Danny alive even though he should have poofed a while back.

[Frank2]

Oy - what a poor excuse for a TS, but it's a classic "El Nino TS" since the shear is strong...

In fact, in the El Nino's of the early '80s, we had so many sheared swirls that we almost began to believe that all tropical cyclones were supposed to look that way!

It's good news for the EC, that's for sure...

Frank

[Sanibel]

The giant ULL/Low is shearing this, right?

[wxman57]

If Danny or TD what ever stays the way it is going will put the exposed
LLC inland around North of Wilm and not the outer banks.The east of the storm stays off shore. But will be nothing to it. just another day here in NC.JMO as of what I see now. cause it is weak it is going to go into the ULL not away from. He wants to die in the ULL.

I suspect you'll get some 15-20 kt winds there on the NC coast, and no rain except from the front coming in from the west.

[Frank2]

The giant ULL/Low is shearing this, right?

Glad I stuck with my own opinion about the ULL being the factor that would prevent this from intensifying - surprised that the NHC insisted on it doing so for so long...

Newbies...

=D

[HURAKAN]

676
WTNT35 KNHC 281432
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...DANNY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...
WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST OR ABOUT 350
MILES...565 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 830
MILES...1335 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

WHILE DANNY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME SOON. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DANNY IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...
APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS FROM DANNY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...30.1N 75.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

382
NOUS42 KNHC 281415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NTIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 28 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-092

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM DANNY
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 29/1800Z, 30/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1005A DANNY
C. 29/1430Z
D. 38.5N 72.5W
E. 29/1700Z TO 29/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

3. REMARKS: G-IV FLIGHT FOR 29/0000Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 28/1130Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[HURAKAN]

Closer than before

[Nantucket]

Sweet Landfall on Nantcuket!

[MGC]

I think Danny is slowly spinning down. Looks like a TD to me. Little chance of intensification with the trough about to cream the cyclone.....Naked swirl warning....I like that......MGC

[wxman57]

Sweet Landfall on Nantcuket!

There won't be much left to make landfall by this time tomorrow.

[otowntiger]

Sweet Landfall on Nantcuket!

There won't be much left to make landfall by this time tomorrow.

You forgot to mention that its not coming to Florida!

[tolakram]

Ha.

I was in pretty strong agreement that it's not going to Florida ... but exactly where IS it going? Sit N Spin

[wxman57]

I think Danny is slowly spinning down. Looks like a TD to me. Little chance of intensification with the trough about to cream the cyclone.....Naked swirl warning....I like that......MGC

Yeah, if this is how it looks BEFORE the strong shear hits this evening, imagine what it'll look like tomorrow morning.

[Stratusxpeye]

Sweet Landfall on Nantcuket!

There will be nothing left to landfall by then.

[Nantucket]

So you guys think it won't be a Tropical Storm when it makes it way towards the Cape?

[funster]

Danny's going to make a comeback! The more westward track gives Danny more time over warm water. The naked swirl is still a good looking swirl. With all that heat some shear won't matter. We have seen storms get better as they turn north before. It won't take much for Danny to gain some convection and increase to 60mph or so. Wxman57 does a great job on here but he has a history of underestimating these little puffers (probably because they bore him) or so i've come to let myself believe. Never underestimate storms that fight and fight like Danny.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wxman57]

So you guys think it won't be a Tropical Storm when it makes it way towards the Cape?

I think it'll be just a memory by then, absorbed by the cold font/upper low.

[littlevince]

Latest

Well, I did not expect that vortex remained so well today. At least this deserves some respect, and perhaps now I better understand NHC, they probably feared some kind of unexpected tropical surprises as seen on past and don't want be caught with pants down.