ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Blown Away]

So this went from 450mi from the CV Islands to 850mi from them in the matter of a few hours? Obviously this will have a effect on the models... not sure in what way though.

IMO, everything gets shifted more S and W!

[Sanibel]

Never underestimate the CV belt during primetime.

[gatorcane]

the ECMWF moved Bill so slowly because it was dead flat wrong, not because it was the only model to see a weakness

people need to stop looking at the final result and start looking at the process to reach that result. If one takes the wrong process to get a correct result, it is still wrong

Derek what are you talking about? The GFS was dead wrong with Bill initially sending it way westward towards the GOM/Caribbean/FL....ECMWF had Bill moving slower and CONSISTENTLY showed a recurve prior to getting to the Leewards. It got Bill's track correct when no other model I saw got it right that far out. The GFS did finally start showing a recurve but long after the ECMWF showed it.

You should give the ECMWF some credit with Bill.

Gator, you would have been one who whined cried and you know what had you been in the class I TA'ed last year. You'd be quite POed when I docked you 3/4 of your points for using the wrong methods to get a right answer.

The EC had 200NM errors for 24 hour forecasts. That is dead flat wrong. I could not care less what a model does after 5 days... take a numerical analysis class to learn about error accumulation and realise that forecasts at that time period are bound to be utterly worthless.

Derek, I have a degree in Engineering with Honors and an MBA, I've taken plenty of numerical analysis classes, thanks.

[Derek Ortt]

then you should understand how errors grow, not decay, in time. If a model has a 200NM short term error and is good after 5-7 days, it has done something right for totally the wrong reason

[Bocadude85]

Yeah, I'm just babbling some nonsense. Don't pay me no attention.

Actually, your point was pretty clear to me in the original post on the matter. I think others may have missed it because it wasn't traditional thinking for a possibly developing disturbance being eagerly watched by weather enthusiasts.

Thanks Southerngale.

BTW it appears now that this thing may re-curve and be weak. Who'd a thunk it?

Of course anything can happen, but it is hard for some of us to accept the strong possibility that an eagerly anticipated wave that superficially appears to have all kinds of potential only to be dismissed by models and ripped by shear.

You know you can't just assume that everything is going to recurve before anything even develops. This just shifted over 300 miles to the west.. the models that do develop this initialized it 3 degrees east of where it is now...

[otowntiger]

still looks as bad as Danny. Strong shear continues to keep this in check

I'll be very surprised if this does anything

Me too. If it doesn't get it's act together it won't matter where it goes, if it's nothing when it gets there. But interesting enough with such a weak Bermuda high this thing may re-curve and be nothing.

[Lurker]

Wow - why is everyone punching each other in the stomach over this one weak disturbance?

Guess that's a slow season for you...

LOL Frank - You are one of the best and one of my personal favorite posters on here because while you are the anti-storm you are usually very accurate in what you say. However, at this point in the season we usually see 4/1/0 and we are 4/1/1 so not a "slow" season but more like average.

[Derek Ortt]

I actually dont see a recurve... I see a track mainly to the west with the low-level easterlies

[Bocadude85]

So this went from 450mi from the CV Islands to 850mi from them in the matter of a few hours? Obviously this will have a effect on the models... not sure in what way though.

IMO, everything gets shifted more S and W!

You know Im wondering how big of a weakness there actually will be? With Danny pretty much falling apart I do not see how he would create much of a weakness in the ridge....

[littlevince]

ASCAT from 12:08z miss the storm but show enough to realize that circulation remains very elongated. No evolution about that.

[Ola]

I actually dont see a recurve... I see a track mainly to the west with the low-level easterlies

That means you dont see intensification?

[otowntiger]

I actually dont see a recurve... I see a track mainly to the west with the low-level easterlies

In that vein I guess there is the possibility that it could get its act together further down the road and become a threat, right?

[Derek Ortt]

not really sure this will ever amount to anything to be honest

[Frank2]

LOL Frank - You are one of the best and one of my personal favorite posters on here because while you are the anti-storm you are usually very accurate in what you say. However, at this point in the season we usually see 4/1/0 and we are 4/1/1 so not a "slow" season but more like average.

Gee, thanks - true about the statistics (though it seems slow since we've only had the one substantial system, so far)...

Here are photos of the weaklings, so far (except for Bill, and look at Danny, or as they say on the infomercials, "What a mess!"):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Atlan ... son#Storms

Frank

[Stormcenter]

I don't see this making it as far west as into the GOM if it were to develop. IMO

[otowntiger]

LOL Frank - You are one of the best and one of my personal favorite posters on here because while you are the anti-storm you are usually very accurate in what you say. However, at this point in the season we usually see 4/1/0 and we are 4/1/1 so not a "slow" season but more like average.

Gee, thanks - true about the statistics (though it seems slow since we've only had the one substantial system, so far)...

Here are photos of the weaklings, so far (except for Bill, and look at Danny - what a mess!):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Atlan ... son#Storms

Frank

Yeah Danny You're right. He is a mess.

[otowntiger]

not really sure this will ever amount to anything to be honest

While I certainly don't disagree with you I am curious as to why you think that? The NHC is still giving it a 50/50 shot to become a TD and Jeff Masters seems to think its "worth watching". They all seem to that that conditions favor strengthening even now. Is it because of what it is not doing given relatively favorable conditions now? Again like I said I'm of the opinion that this thing won't develop much either mainly because the models are saying that and frankly because you are not high on it either.

[lester]

LOL Frank - You are one of the best and one of my personal favorite posters on here because while you are the anti-storm you are usually very accurate in what you say. However, at this point in the season we usually see 4/1/0 and we are 4/1/1 so not a "slow" season but more like average.

Gee, thanks - true about the statistics (though it seems slow since we've only had the one substantial system, so far)...

Here are photos of the weaklings, so far (except for Bill, and look at Danny, or as they say on the infomercials, "What a mess!"):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Atlan ... son#Storms

Frank

understatement of the year

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS recurves 94L...and several other systems behind it.....

The synoptic setup is still pointing at recurve for these Cape Verde systems, good news.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif