ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[wxman57]

and it appears from the latest loop that it's finally attempting to head NORTH

I'm measuring NE at 10-12 kts the past 2 hours (040 deg).

[dekeoy]

and it appears from the latest loop that it's finally attempting to head NORTH

I'm measuring NE at 12 kts the past 2 hours (040 deg). Very rough measurement, could be faster.

and...............I wouldn't argue with you about that and hereby revise my post:

It's heading NORTHish

[dekeoy]

also, looking back in data from 2007, this thing has an eerily similar look of 99L from that year and that particular episode had 106 pages. Not quite there yet with Danny and it looks to be the end of the book for this one.

[funster]

It looks as Danny has started to move the convection is getting closer to the center. Also some convection on the nw side. Danny's starting to get better organized as I said it would earlier.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[Lowpressure]

ULL over Georgia looks better than Danny at this point.

[wxman57]

It looks as Danny has started to move the convection is getting closer to the center. Also some convection on the nw side. Danny's starting to get better organized as I said it would earlier.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Your nick says it all.

[jimpsummers]

I can't help but think of Ray Stevens' song "The Streak" as I watch Danny... what with all the nakedness throughout most of his life.

[HURAKAN]

000
URNT15 KNHC 282010
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 27 20090828
200030 3128N 07410W 9593 00447 0093 +229 +219 143025 026 018 003 00
200100 3127N 07411W 9596 00445 0093 +230 +219 142025 026 018 004 00
200130 3126N 07413W 9594 00445 0093 +230 +219 142025 025 019 002 00
200200 3125N 07414W 9592 00447 0093 +230 +220 141024 024 020 003 00
200230 3124N 07415W 9595 00444 0092 +230 +220 142024 025 019 002 00
200300 3123N 07416W 9596 00442 0091 +233 +221 145023 024 020 002 00
200330 3122N 07418W 9593 00445 0091 +230 +222 143024 024 018 003 00
200400 3121N 07419W 9593 00444 0091 +230 +222 140024 024 016 004 00
200430 3119N 07420W 9595 00442 0091 +232 +222 141023 024 018 003 00
200500 3118N 07422W 9597 00441 0090 +233 +223 140022 023 018 003 00
200530 3117N 07423W 9593 00443 0089 +232 +223 139022 023 016 002 00
200600 3116N 07424W 9595 00441 0087 +230 +223 140023 023 016 002 00
200630 3115N 07425W 9594 00441 0088 +230 +223 138022 023 014 003 00
200700 3114N 07427W 9597 00439 0088 +233 +224 141020 022 020 001 00
200730 3113N 07428W 9598 00436 0087 +234 +224 142021 021 016 003 00
200800 3112N 07429W 9592 00443 0086 +233 +224 141020 021 018 001 00
200830 3111N 07431W 9595 00439 0085 +235 +224 143019 020 016 002 00
200900 3110N 07432W 9596 00437 0085 +236 +225 143018 019 017 002 00
200930 3109N 07433W 9594 00439 0084 +240 +225 145018 019 023 000 00
201000 3108N 07434W 9594 00438 0083 +241 +226 148020 020 024 000 03
$$
;

860
URNT15 KNHC 282020
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 28 20090828
201030 3107N 07436W 9594 00438 0084 +240 +227 147021 021 023 000 03
201100 3105N 07437W 9593 00439 0083 +237 +228 146020 020 022 000 03
201130 3104N 07438W 9593 00437 0083 +235 +229 149021 021 022 000 03
201200 3103N 07440W 9593 00438 0083 +235 +230 147021 022 023 000 00
201230 3102N 07441W 9593 00438 0083 +234 +230 146021 022 023 000 00
201300 3101N 07442W 9596 00436 0083 +235 +230 148022 023 023 000 03
201330 3100N 07443W 9595 00436 0082 +235 +230 149022 022 022 000 03
201400 3059N 07445W 9593 00437 0081 +236 +230 149021 021 023 000 03
201430 3058N 07446W 9596 00433 0080 +239 +229 148019 020 025 000 03
201500 3057N 07447W 9592 00436 0079 +236 +229 147017 017 023 000 00
201530 3056N 07448W 9594 00434 0079 +238 +229 146016 017 021 000 03
201600 3055N 07450W 9594 00434 0079 +240 +229 149017 017 022 000 03
201630 3054N 07451W 9594 00433 0078 +238 +230 152017 018 019 000 00
201700 3053N 07452W 9594 00434 0077 +239 +230 152016 017 021 000 03
201730 3051N 07453W 9594 00433 0077 +240 +230 150016 016 020 000 00
201800 3050N 07455W 9594 00432 0077 +240 +230 150016 016 022 000 00
201830 3049N 07456W 9593 00432 0077 +240 +230 145015 015 021 000 03
201900 3048N 07457W 9596 00430 0076 +238 +230 134014 015 021 000 03
201930 3047N 07459W 9603 00422 0075 +238 +229 136015 016 020 000 03
202000 3046N 07500W 9598 00426 0074 +239 +229 137015 016 019 000 03
$$
;

[massweathernet]

It looks as Danny has started to move the convection is getting closer to the center. Also some convection on the nw side. Danny's starting to get better organized as I said it would earlier.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

It DOES look like the LLC is trying to scoot back under the main blob of convection in the last frame or two..

[HURAKAN]

166
URNT15 KNHC 282030
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 29 20090828
202030 3045N 07501W 9592 00432 0073 +239 +228 140015 015 020 000 03
202100 3044N 07502W 9594 00429 0073 +239 +228 144016 016 021 000 03
202130 3043N 07504W 9592 00431 0072 +240 +229 139015 015 015 000 03
202200 3042N 07505W 9592 00430 0072 +239 +229 140014 016 002 004 00
202230 3041N 07506W 9597 00425 0071 +240 +228 143013 013 003 002 00
202300 3039N 07508W 9593 00429 0071 +240 +228 145013 013 002 003 00
202330 3038N 07509W 9595 00426 0070 +240 +229 142013 014 005 002 00
202400 3037N 07510W 9597 00424 0070 +240 +229 145014 014 008 002 00
202430 3036N 07511W 9593 00426 0069 +235 +229 143014 014 002 002 00
202500 3035N 07513W 9594 00425 0068 +239 +228 140011 011 003 002 00
202530 3034N 07514W 9593 00424 0067 +240 +227 141011 011 009 002 00
202600 3033N 07515W 9593 00424 0067 +239 +228 139011 013 009 002 00
202630 3032N 07517W 9596 00421 0066 +240 +228 141010 011 008 002 00
202700 3031N 07518W 9596 00421 0065 +239 +228 134009 009 010 002 00
202730 3030N 07519W 9596 00421 0064 +242 +229 135008 008 007 003 00
202800 3028N 07520W 9596 00420 0063 +242 +229 125006 007 009 002 00
202830 3027N 07522W 9594 00420 0063 +241 +229 114004 005 007 003 03
202900 3026N 07523W 9592 00423 0063 +240 +230 113003 004 002 003 03
202930 3025N 07524W 9594 00419 0062 +240 +231 073001 001 005 003 00
203000 3023N 07525W 9594 00419 0062 +240 +230 338002 003 006 002 00
$$
;

EXTRA 1006 mb

[HURAKAN]

[dekeoy]

ain't this fun?

On a serious note though, it's nice that we can make fun of this now, as the future may not be so laughable, no matter if 2009 or 2010 or whenever. I've been through my share here on the coast since I can remember and none of the average 2's/3's were fun.

[HURAKAN]

It just looks like Danny may have started to move NNE-ward and shear is blowing some high clouds over the center

[wxman57]

It looks as Danny has started to move the convection is getting closer to the center. Also some convection on the nw side. Danny's starting to get better organized as I said it would earlier.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

It DOES look like the LLC is trying to scoot back under the main blob of convection in the last frame or two..

I think you've both been staring at the satellite imagery too long:

[fci]

A fairly boring season continues as Danny fights for its life. He could move directly over NC and all of the associated squalls would be well overshore at this point.

Quite frankly I am enjoying the peace, quiet and recurving of this season and hope that it continues all the way through!!

[vbhoutex]

It looks as Danny has started to move the convection is getting closer to the center. Also some convection on the nw side. Danny's starting to get better organized as I said it would earlier.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

It DOES look like the LLC is trying to scoot back under the main blob of convection in the last frame or two..

I have to disagree. The LLCC is definitely moving NNE or NE, but all I am seeing is the tops of convection to the SE of the LLCC being blown N making it seem like the LLCC is trying to scoot under the convection.

[lester]

WTNT35 KNHC 282032
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND DANNY STILL A TROPICAL STORM...BEGINNING
TO MOVE NORTHWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...
WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA TONIGHT.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA ON FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES...535 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 810
MILES...1300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DANNY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY SATURDAY...PASS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY.
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
DANNY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS FROM DANNY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...30.4N 75.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

991
WTNT45 KNHC 282035
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

AFTER STALLING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF DANNY IS
FINALLY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. DATA FROM AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT DANNY IS
STILL A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...BASED ON A 33-KT OBSERVATION FROM
THE SFMR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM...AS THE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE COULD SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...BY 24 HOURS...DANNY WILL BE MOVING INTO A VERY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWING WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO 35 KT BY THAT TIME. BY 36
HOURS...DANNY WILL BE OVER SSTS OF NEAR 20C...AND INTERACTING WITH
THE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOST OF
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AND PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SHOW THAT DANNY
WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF DANNY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

THE GUIDANCE WAS INITIALIZED WITH A LONG TERM MOTION OF 315/08...
AND REMAINS IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RAPID ACCELERATION OF DANNY
NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. IN FACT...THE MODEL SPREAD IS
SMALLER NOW THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLOWER
THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE SLOW
INITIAL MOTION. FROM 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE NEW FORECAST IS SHIFTED
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT DANNY IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND
APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA IN 36-48 HOURS.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE ONLY 34-KT WINDS ARE LOCATED
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE LACK OF WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
DANNY LESSEN THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM WIND REACHING THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. HOWEVER...THE WATCH IS LEFT IN PLACE IN CASE
THE WIND FIELD BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF DANNY.
AS DANNY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...ITS EXPANDING WIND FIELD MAY
IMPACT THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE
HANDLED WITH GALE WARNINGS AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS
OFFICES IN THAT REGION.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 30.4N 75.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 32.7N 75.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 37.3N 73.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 41.9N 68.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 30/1800Z 46.5N 61.4W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 31/1800Z 50.5N 49.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 01/1800Z 53.0N 35.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/1800Z 55.0N 22.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[dekeoy]

A fairly boring season continues as Danny fights for its life. He could move directly over NC and all of the associated squalls would be well overshore at this point.

Quite frankly I am enjoying the peace, quiet and recurving of this season and hope that it continues all the way through!!

several of us have already had "squalls" per se

[Lowpressure]

I think those that think this will get better organized should back up and realize this is a pathetic excuse for a TS. If it even is a TS. The rain bands on the coast are from the ULL moving up the interior. Next.