ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#361 Postby sfwx » Fri Aug 28, 2009 2:20 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
241 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...

Extended:

TUES-FRI.....RIDGE AXIS WILL TRY TO MIGRATE BACK
TO THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CONTINENTAL SFC RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF
THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DLM TROF. HOWEVER...AS THE
TROF DRIFTS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD AND ERODES THE NW FLANK OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE...BOTH ECMWF/GFS MODELS INDICATE THE SW FLANK OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE ERODED BY AN ERLY WAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE
AXIS RETREATING TO THE SW...ALLOWING SWRLY FLOW TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. POPS WILL BE AOA CLIMO AS THE DLM SWRLY FLOW
WOULD FOCUS DIURNAL PRECIP OVER THE ERN PENINSULA.



SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....MOSES
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Re: Re:

#362 Postby otowntiger » Fri Aug 28, 2009 2:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:ECMWF 12Z out shortly.


Massive trough now see along eastern CONUS at 240 hours, that would be a shoe-in for a CONUS miss.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9082812!!/


Big surprise!!! :roll: There's our trustly ole "perma trough"!!! :P
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#363 Postby otowntiger » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:00 pm

Wow. Not much activitiy on either 94L thread. I guess everyone's lost interest. Is it looking that bad for potential Erika?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#364 Postby mattpetre » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:06 pm

Possible Erika is still a long ways away from CONUS, but I am guessing this is the year of the Fish... although Erika is probably our best chance for a long tracker that makes a strike. I think it's funny how we all behave in an OFF season for US striking hurricanes. Deep down you know, despite what we may say, that we all like to watch a hurricane threaten the US coastline. Seriously, are you going to say you love the weather on Saturn or Jupiter as much as that on the earth, even though it is much more interesting there as far as intensity and chaos?
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#365 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:07 pm

It just needs time.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#366 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:08 pm

otowntiger wrote:Wow. Not much activitiy on either 94L thread. I guess everyone's lost interest. Is it looking that bad for potential Erika?


I'm guessing since the 12Z ECMWF that just came out at 15Z shows a huge trough setting up along the Eastern CONUS --- and doesn't even show 94L developing are the reasons.

Of course things can change so we should still pay attention to 94L. Also once we get closer to 18Z where new model runs arrive, I think we'll see things pick up.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#367 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:08 pm

94L has plenty of moist air to work with.

Image
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Re: Re:

#368 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:12 pm

gatorcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:ECMWF 12Z out shortly.


Massive trough now see along eastern CONUS at 240 hours, that would be a shoe-in for a CONUS miss.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9082812!!/


Yep, sure is a big trough. One thing that has happened today is 94L is flying across the Atlantic. If 94L ever were to affect the CONUS EC it will be before that trough digs in. It will not take 94L more than 9 days to get to the EC!
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Re: Re:

#369 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:20 pm

Blown_away wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:ECMWF 12Z out shortly.


Massive trough now see along eastern CONUS at 240 hours, that would be a shoe-in for a CONUS miss.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9082812!!/


Yep, sure is a big trough. One thing that has happened today is 94L is flying across the Atlantic. If 94L ever were to affect the CONUS EC it will be before that trough digs in. It will not take 94L more than 9 days to get to the EC!


ECMWF 12Z has 94L (albeit just a weak low) just NE of the Leewards at 192 hours heading WNW to NW. The H5 maps at the 192 hour mark have a trough setup along the Eastern CONUS, by 240 hours the trough has really deepened. If the 12Z ECMWF is correct (which it may not be)......then 94L is going to need to make it to the EASTERN CONUS before 192 hours, which I don't see happening.

12Z GFDL, HWRF, and CMC, show 94L making some kind of almost NNW to NW turn over the next few days then resuming a WNW movement, but by then its already far enough north to miss the islands it would seem and at a lattitude that would be prone to recurve anyway farther upstream...heading WNW.

It just seems no matter how south these waves are, they are getting tugged north into weaknesses throughout the atlantic. Weak ridging exists but not strong enough to keep them heading west when they develop.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9082812!!/
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#370 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:21 pm

:uarrow: 94L sure is flying across the Atlantic now. I think the 20kt speed metioned in the 2pm Discussion is more accurate than the 15 mph mentioned in the 2pm Outlook.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#371 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:27 pm

The box for the NE Caribbean islands to get a direct hit from a system is 15N-50W.By what is going on,it looks like it will track south of those numbers.That is why those who are in the islands me included,have to watch very closely this system.

That is why I am in watching mode like those below. :)

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#372 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:29 pm

GFDL and HWRF didnt run at 12z.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#373 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:GFDL and HWRF didnt run at 12z.


Oh those are the 06Z runs, could make a difference. Will they run at 18Z? Curious if they shift west at all given how when I look at the sat image, 94L is really caught up in the easterly flow it seems, heading pretty much due west.
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#374 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:34 pm

gatorcane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:GFDL and HWRF didnt run at 12z.


Oh those are the 06Z runs, could make a difference. Will they run at 18Z?


Well,we will know around 7:30 PM EDT.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#375 Postby otowntiger » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:94L has plenty of moist air to work with.

Image
Boy, it does seem to be making good progress across the Atlantic, but for whatever reason is not developing one iota. but you're right moisture is there, SST is there, I'm hearing that shear is not that bad, but why the heck is the convection so displaced and why is this thing such a mess?
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#376 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:40 pm

Image

Convection developing to the north of center
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#377 Postby Lowpressure » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:42 pm

This may cruise into the Carib at this speed and not develop until the Central or Western Carib.
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#378 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:44 pm

Sheasr IMO is still not great, the models probably aren't doing a good job picking it up but you can tell by the way the convection always seems further west.

Still this one really isn't likely to pick up much latitude whilst this pattern and shape continues and so it does need to be watched downstream. If it can't start gaining proper latitude and develop a center this one is going to head into the Caribbean possibly.

Certainly will be interesting to see if the models shift westwards...but for now this one is still struggling!
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#379 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:44 pm

All and all you couldn't have asked for a better season so far for those folks not looking for close to home tropical activity.
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#380 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:46 pm

The models are clearly going too far north, its really not gaining much if any latitude right now plus its not developing any real circulation so it seems possible that its going to cruise right past the weakness to its north without gaining more then 2-3 degrees northwards.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if it ends up close to the Caribbean at the moment.
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