ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[gatorcane]

Is that 94L showing up on the bottom-right side of the image.........

If so that is Caribbean bound:

Latest 18Z NAM just out:

[Blown Away]

If it says weak, it will likely continue on a westward course and might be able to get things going when it approaches the islands in a week or so.

it shouldn't take a week to reach the islands. It could be there in about 4 days if it stays at the low latitude
However, this needs to speed up if it wants to develop... and speed up by about 5-8KT to catch up with the convection

Islands maybe in 4 days, so EC in 9 days is not out of the question.

[vbhoutex]

This may cruise into the Carib at this speed and not develop until the Central or Western Carib.

Hush your mouth!!! The question then becomes will it become a GOMer problem or just keep going West all the way around the world? It is interesting that it seems to be in decent conditions to at least develop slowly and doesn't seem to be doing much but cruising West.

[Typhoon_Willie]

We will soon see what happens then. Things could get interesting on down the road.

[KWT]

Yep models are WAY too slow, the ECM and GFS both have this around 45W in *4* days time, its going to be at that longitude by tomorrow at this rate.

Very interesting, needs watching IMO now.

[ROCK]

This may cruise into the Carib at this speed and not develop until the Central or Western Carib.

Hush your mouth!!! The question then becomes will it become a GOMer problem or just keep going West all the way around the world? It is interesting that it seems to be in decent conditions to at least develop slowly and doesn't seem to be doing much but cruising West.

I hear you VB....but with such a broad circulation its taking its sweet time all the while its cruising along 10N heading west straight for the islands. I dont think I have ever saw a system this low in lat haul at 20knts before.

[KWT]

Also looks like the ULL to its north is lifting out a little to the NE, I'm really thinking the models may be overdoing the northerly component to this ones motion...given where it is plus the fact its far less developed then Bill was at this stage, its got to be a threat to the Caribbean surely, esp given the weakness that present which could help lift this one out.

IMO if thyis stays below 285 its got to be a possible thing to watch for the caribbean in about 4 days as derek said.

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, the persistent trough has protected the CONUS so far from storms approaching from the east. However, this time could be different. This is just guessing, but 94L is riding kind of low... if it stays low, it could hit the islands and enter the Caribbean. If it makes it to the NW Caribbean (again, just hypothetical), it could end up poised to recurve into the CONUS.

This still has the look of a big storm to me. There is a long east west trough, kind of like a monsoon trough (another storm that kind of looks like a typhoon forming.) Once it gets wrapped, which may take a day or two, it could take off.

[ROCK]

Is that 94L showing up on the bottom-right side of the image.........

If so that is Caribbean bound:

Latest 18Z NAM just out:

thats her alright....but it is the NAM though...

[vbhoutex]

This may cruise into the Carib at this speed and not develop until the Central or Western Carib.

Hush your mouth!!! The question then becomes will it become a GOMer problem or just keep going West all the way around the world? It is interesting that it seems to be in decent conditions to at least develop slowly and doesn't seem to be doing much but cruising West.

I hear you VB....but with such a broad circulation its taking its sweet time all the while its cruising along 10N heading west straight for the islands. I dont think I have ever saw a system this low in lat haul at 20knts before.

I believe there was one in the last 5 years or so that did this and actually ended up developing in the South Central Carib. I'm too lazy to try and figure out who it was. I just think I remember commenting about if it didn't slow down it wouldn't ever do anything and it finally did.

[Blown Away]

Oh no, the Texas folks are showing up now!

[KWT]

That would likely be Dean, that really went at a quick speed as it headed westward at low latitude, think it managed to pick up about 5 degrees north from about 35W to central America!

[ROCK]

Oh no, the Texas folks are showing up now!

ah yes....its been awhile since we had a FL vs TX discussion.....

[otowntiger]

Is that 94L showing up on the bottom-right side of the image.........

If so that is Caribbean bound:

Latest 18Z NAM just out:

thats her alright....but it is the NAM though...

and she probably aint worth crap by the time "she" gets there either. Just a little afternoon thunderstorm.

[Stormcenter]

It's not even coming close.

Oh no, the Texas folks are showing up now!

[ROCK]

It's not even coming close.

Oh no, the Texas folks are showing up now!

close to what? the carib? islands?

[Bocadude85]

I would say the fact that the models have this moving to the NW right now makes them bogus. 94L is moving due west and will most likely will continue to do so until it becomes a deeper system. And if this were to enter the caribbean and develop then the trough progged to come down in 9 days by the Euro would most likely recurve this system right into the CONUS.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Thuderstorm activity has been increasing in its northern side...It will be interesting to see the effects of D-Max in the wave later tonight...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[Stormcenter]

A lot of what ifs for something that some of the models are not even developing into a significant system.

I would say the fact that the models have this moving to the NW right now makes them bogus. 94L is moving due west and will most likely will continue to do so until it becomes a deeper system. And if this were to enter the caribbean and develop then the trough progged to come down in 9 days by the Euro would most likely recurve this system right into the CONUS.

[KWT]

Yep the models are clearly pulling this one too far north too quickly, the next 24hrs are going to be very key because the system should be moving to the south of the weakness and how much latitude it gains then is key.