ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[jlauderdal]

The box for the NE Caribbean islands to get a direct hit from a system is 15N-50W.By what is going on,it looks like it will track south of those numbers.That is why those who are in the islands me included,have to watch very closely this system.

That is why I am in watching mode like those below.

yours look a bit more concerned about this system than mine:

[Bocadude85]

A lot of what ifs for something that some of the models are not even developing into a significant system.

I would say the fact that the models have this moving to the NW right now makes them bogus. 94L is moving due west and will most likely will continue to do so until it becomes a deeper system. And if this were to enter the caribbean and develop then the trough progged to come down in 9 days by the Euro would most likely recurve this system right into the CONUS.

Yes some of the models are not developing this system at all.. but some of them are.. so this does have some model support. But I agree that until this does actually develop or not its all just speculation.

[cycloneye]

jlauderdal,because we here may be the first to get something than in the Conus,that is why those kind of bears.

[FireBird]

The way this is moving reminds me of 94L last year which became Gustav (I think?), as well as Dean and Felix, all of which moved quickly across the Atlantic at low latitude. All these passed my neck of the woods (11N 62W) as TDs or invests or became a TS just over our head. It's been my observation that once a blob gets though my co-ordinates, there's nothing stopping major development. Definitely something to keep an eye on over the next couple days.

[Stormcenter]

If what you said were the case concerning "nothing stopping major development" then why hasn't it happened yet? Why does it need to move into the Carribean before it happens. By the way this is not like the 2008 (Gustav,etc.)season. The similarities are not there. I'm just pointing out some things and not knocking your post.

The way this is moving reminds me of 94L last year which became Gustav (I think?), as well as Dean and Felix, all of which moved quickly across the Atlantic at low latitude. All these passed my neck of the woods (11N 62W) as TDs or invests or became a TS just over our head. It's been my observation that once a blob gets though my co-ordinates, there's nothing stopping major development. Definitely something to keep an eye on over the next couple days.

[perk]

Oh no, the Texas folks are showing up now!

ah yes....its been awhile since we had a FL vs TX discussion.....

Rock i vividly remember some of those spirited debates, and at times they got down right ugly. If i see one of those debates coming i'm gonna take shelter over on the khou board there i know i have allies.

[HURAKAN]

In my book 94L looks like a contender. As long a tropical wave has a good circulation, fairly-organized area of thunderstorms and favorable atmospheric conditions, it has a chance to develop. Patience is the key. We have seen a lot of tropical waves come out of Africa and fall apart. This system has kept itself well-organized and generating convection. If I were in the Lesser Antilles I would pay attention. That's my opinion.

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just in case!

[cycloneye]

In my book 94L looks like a contender. As long a tropical wave has a good circulation, fairly-organized area of thunderstorms and favorable atmospheric conditions, it has a chance to develop. Patience is the key. We have seen a lot of tropical waves come out of Africa and fall apart. This system has kept itself well-organized and generating convection. If I were in the Lesser Antilles I would pay attention. That's my opinion.

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just in case!

Agree 100% with your opinion.

[KWT]

Its certainly got a chance if the easterly shear drops or the lower level flow can catch up a little bit, which is possible as its now getting towards the same longitude as the upper low to its north.

Anyway another sign to notice is the convection trying to form on the northern side of where any circulation is trying to get going, something I've notice happen over the last 24hrs with this system.

[Nimbus]

The elongated circulation reminds me of a tank tread and the forward speed is definitely hindering development. How far west do they expect this rapid forward speed to continue? Its so far south that maybe we should wishcast a track into Mexico like Earl?

[jlauderdal]

jlauderdal,because we here may be the first to get something than in the Conus,that is why those kind of bears.

yep, i like the bears better than the cheesy NHC color codes, there are plenty of angry bear images as the sytem develops and gets closer

[lonelymike]

In my book 94L looks like a contender. As long a tropical wave has a good circulation, fairly-organized area of thunderstorms and favorable atmospheric conditions, it has a chance to develop. Patience is the key. We have seen a lot of tropical waves come out of Africa and fall apart. This system has kept itself well-organized and generating convection. If I were in the Lesser Antilles I would pay attention. That's my opinion.

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just in case!

Agree 100% with your opinion.

Find a pro met to agree with your opinion.

[cycloneye]

Latest Q Pass made at 4:38 PM EDT.No doubt if convection starts to form over and wrap around it,then it takes off.

[KWT]

Wow what a mess cycloneye, looks like its got multiple developing centers, hardly surprising given how broad the system is, the eastern most one is strongest but its way removed from any decent convection...

I suspect we will see the western part form its own circulation soon but we shall see, I just can't see this one developing for another day at least with that shape and presentation.

[micktooth]

The box for the NE Caribbean islands to get a direct hit from a system is 15N-50W.By what is going on,it looks like it will track south of those numbers.That is why those who are in the islands me included,have to watch very closely this system.

That is why I am in watching mode like those below.

yours look a bit more concerned about this system than mine:

Now that I'm in Colorado and no longer living in New Orleans, this is my bear:

[Annie Oakley]

We have been having rain/showers here in Central Texas-a relief from 100 degree days on end...we certainly do not want anyone to suffer too much rain-so.....as much as I admire a beautiful force of nature in Hurricane form-please let it die!

[CourierPR]

Wow what a mess cycloneye, looks like its got multiple developing centers, hardly surprising given how broad the system is, the eastern most one is strongest but its way removed from any decent convection...

I suspect we will see the western part form its own circulation soon but we shall see, I just can't see this one developing for another day at least with that shape and presentation.

IMO the system is looking a little more organized with some possible banding.

[hurricanetrack]

Luis- that is one colorful QS image! Did Skittles pay for it? LOL. I agree with what you and HURAKAN said about this system. It is certainly not going gangbusters at the moment but it is there, it has a large envelope to work with and is moving steadily west. Besides, there's nothing else to really watch right now anyway with Danny the anemic storm off the NC coast.

And as for finding a pro met to agree with someone in order to make their thoughts valid, not sure what having a degree would add to what we can plainly see in the available tools of the Internet. Does having a BS in meteorology give the pro mets some secret access to other parts of the Internet where us lowly regular folk cannot venture? It's not like these guys (Luis and HURAKAN) are saying anything that they cannot back up with sound reasoning. I respect the people who got degrees in meteorology but they put on their pants feet first like the rest of us do.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 282343
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1035 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

If you look at it this way it looks better. Yes, still elongated east-west and the main area of convection west of the low pressure.