Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST THU AUG 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...AT 11 AM AST...TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR 320 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NASSAU...WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE STORM CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHENED SLOWLY AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 13 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
EXTEND FROM THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN.

ANOTHER WARM AND DRY AFTERNOON WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FA SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DETECTED BY THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO. LATEST MIMIC-TPW ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON...DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY
DRY AIR WITH ONLY FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOCAL
ISLANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDREDS
MILES.

THUS...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DRIER AND STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE FA. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS REASONING THE SJU-GFS
FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATED MODERATE VALUES OF PWAT VALUES FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH TO THE REGION INDUCING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE SJU-GFS LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE SUGGESTS UP TO 2.32 INCHES OF PWAT ACROSS
THE REGION BY THAT TIME. GOOD INDICATION THAT THE PEAK OF THE WET
SEASON WILL BE WITH US VERY SOON. STAY TUNED.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1028 PM AST THU AUG 27 2009

.UPDATE...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
A SUBSIDENT AND FAIRLY DRY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
CHANGE ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TUTT LOW SHIFTS WESTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY. THIS IN
TURN WILL INCREASE TROPICAL MOISTURE/PWAT VALUES AND THEREFORE
ENHANCE SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST...
BUT DID SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AS WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION IN THE PREVAILING
EASTERLIES WILL BRING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD FOR NOW.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Watching 94L to our east but in the meantime a good weekend weatherwise.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
423 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY AND THEN AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT A PLEASANT UPCOMING WEEKEND FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN. HOWEVER...SECTIONS OF
WESTERN PUERTO RICO MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

FEW TROPICAL WAVES CROSSING THE FAR TROPICAL ATLANTIC...LOOKING
INTERESTING AT THIS TIME. WE WILL BE MONITORING THESE FEATURE`S
CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADJUSTED TO ALONG 36W BASED ON THE 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW POSITION. THE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10.5N36W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
WAVE/LOW COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE FOCUSED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND IS EMBEDDED IN AN
AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF TE WAVE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 39W-42W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 34W-39W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED
TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS...NORTHERN...WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. LATEST MIMIC-TPW ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON...DEPICTED AN AREA OF GENERALLY
DRY AIR WITH ONLY FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE...EXTENDING FROM
HISPANIOLA EASTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZES CONVERGENCE AND
LOCAL EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH TO THE REGION INDUCING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ANOTHER
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE...NEAR 40 DEGREES WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS PUT
THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF THE FA BY LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

[cycloneye]

We have to watch very closely 94L as it has continued to move west. So lets do like those below

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1035 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS
CONCENTRATED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW CENTER. THE WAVE/LOW ALSO
COINCIDE WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 38W-44W.

[abajan]

20 kt is quite fast (about 23 mph) which would tend to inhibit quick development. This is not necessarily a good thing because quickly developing systems tend to curve to the northwest while slow developers tend to have a more westward track component.

With this in mind, I hope we islanders, especially the in northern section of the archipelago, don't have to contend with a tropical storm in a few days time. Not saying that this will happen - just airing my concerns of the possibility.

[Gustywind]

We have to watch very closely 94L as it has continued to move west. So lets do like those below

yeah...you're right for sure, definitely something to keep an eye on. So let's applause our SUPERMAN Luis below

[Gustywind]

94L



Pretty south system (10N)...always suspicious things carib islanders in end of August, early September!

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 282001
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. WINDS WERE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH
A FEW AFFECTING THE LOCALS ISLANDS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LOW
ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP
TROPICS AND INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ISLANDS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET.

$$

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1016 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2009

.UPDATE...
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING DEPICTED SHALLOW MOISTURE CAPPED BELOW 700
MBS WITH OVERALL DRY...STABLE AND SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND
A FEW EASTERLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOTED OVER LAND...AS FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH HAD
A GOOD HANDLE ON PRESENT AND EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL MOVE MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE PRESENT LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A TUTT LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Keeping an eye on 94L.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST SAT AUG 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL KEEP THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS WITH GOOD CHANCES
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...COASTAL
AREAS MAY OBSERVE QUICKLY PASSING SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT AND DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COASTS.

ON THE OTHER HAND...THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPERIENCE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING...UNDER A LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

LOOKING AHEAD...MOISTURE AND SHOWERS TO INCREASE EVEN MORE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 56 WEST THIS
MORNING...APPROACHES THE DISCUSSION AREA. ANOTHER AND STRONGER
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 40 WEST...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL. THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF 30
TO 50 PERCENT TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS PER THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. STAY TUNED.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY...WHICH IS BEING ABSORBED BY AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS EXTRATROPICAL LOW...SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1
AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
142 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2009

PRC021-029-031-033-061-119-127-137-139-292045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0224.090829T1742Z-090829T2045Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-
CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-RIO GRANDE PR-TOA BAJA PR-
142 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...
CATANO...SAN JUAN...RIO GRANDE AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 135 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THESE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM CANOVANAS AND RIO GRANDE WEST
NORTHWESTWARD TO SAN JUAN AND CATANO. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
HAS BEEN IN AND AROUND THE MUNICIPALITIES OF SAN JUAN AND
CAROLINA. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA...RANGED FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES. AT LEAST THROUGH 445 PM AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1843 6619 1849 6614 1836 6581 1826 6587
1832 6600

$$

FIGUEROA

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2009

PRC001-003-005-011-027-065-071-081-099-117-131-141-292030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0225.090829T1825Z-090829T2030Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-UTUADO PR-
AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-LARES PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-RINCON PR-
ANASCO PR-
225 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...ADJUNTAS...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...
AGUADILLA...AGUADA...LARES...CAMUY...HATILLO...RINCON AND ANASCO

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 220 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THESE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM LARES AND HATILLO WEST NORTHWESTWARD TO
AGUADA AND AGUADILLA. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN IN
AND AROUND THE MUNICIPALITIES OF LARES AND SAN SEBASTIAN. WITHIN
THE PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA...RANGED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. AT
LEAST THROUGH 430 PM AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6675 1822 6677 1834 6724 1846 6716
1838 6689

$$

FIGUEROA

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291842
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DIFFERENT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
OVER PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPED
OVER THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA...GENERATING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND ONE INCH. THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO ALSO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

TONIGHT...THE GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM
CROSS SECTION ALSO SHOWS A MODERATE OMEGA OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE INCREASE THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW MORNING. THE LOCAL EFFECTS
AND THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND
WILL ONCE AGAIN EXPERIENCE SHOWERS IN THE FORM OF CU LINES FROM
THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A VERY WEAK AND HARD TO FIND TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS BETWEEN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THIS WEATHER FEATURE.