ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Derek Ortt]

this is now less organized than Danny

NEXT INVEST PLEASE

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS tracks it toward the Carib. but then opens it back to a wave. I remember the GFS was doing the same with Danny early on and wonder if the GFS is over doing the shear each time?

Anyway, so far 94L has not turned NW as the models have been predicting so I think it could very well become a player for the Carib. Islands.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS
CONCENTRATED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW CENTER. THE WAVE/LOW ALSO
COINCIDE WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 38W-44W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Dean4Storms]

It is going to have to slow a bit, I think between its forward speed and the shear it is keeping it from organizing. Once it gets to the SW edge of the ridge I believe it slows and then that is when it organizes, problem is by then it will be far enough west to be a problem for someone!

[ROCK]

this is now less organized than Danny

NEXT INVEST PLEASE

oh come on Derek!! what other invest is there to watch except the EPAC....

[cycloneye]

28/2345 UTC 10.2N 39.3W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic

[cheezyWXguy]

It is going to have to slow a bit, I think between its forward speed and the shear it is keeping it from organizing. Once it gets to the SW edge of the ridge I believe it slows and then that is when it organizes, problem is by then it will be far enough west to be a problem for someone!

No, its the fact that it was moving too slow in the first place that was keeping it from organizing. Deep convection was well displaced to the west during the past couple of days with this one. Only now is it starting to catch up, and in a couple days we may finally see this thing start to organize.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 94, 2009082900, , BEST, 0, 113N, 379W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

Two different positions:

SSD dvorak=10.2N 39.3W

Best Track=11.3N-37.9W

[cycloneye]

The BAMS are much more west,in fact two of them are in the Caribbean sea.

WHXX01 KWBC 290034
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0034 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090829 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090829 0000 090829 1200 090830 0000 090830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 37.9W 12.0N 40.3W 13.1N 42.7W 13.9N 45.5W
BAMD 11.3N 37.9W 11.8N 40.3W 12.7N 42.8W 13.6N 45.2W
BAMM 11.3N 37.9W 12.0N 40.3W 12.9N 42.7W 13.7N 45.2W
LBAR 11.3N 37.9W 12.1N 41.3W 13.0N 44.6W 14.1N 47.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090831 0000 090901 0000 090902 0000 090903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 48.6W 15.3N 54.4W 15.6N 59.2W 16.3N 63.8W
BAMD 14.6N 47.2W 16.1N 50.5W 17.3N 53.1W 18.4N 55.9W
BAMM 14.6N 47.4W 15.8N 51.1W 16.6N 53.8W 17.5N 56.7W
LBAR 15.1N 50.8W 16.5N 55.6W 16.6N 58.2W 14.8N 61.0W
SHIP 53KTS 68KTS 76KTS 81KTS
DSHP 53KTS 68KTS 76KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 37.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 34.0W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 30.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[clfenwi]

Having that Quikscat pass was probably huge in resolving the difference in the position estimates.

Admittedly, I haven't studied the imagery extremely closely, but on a glance I would have gone a different way; the south longitude with the east latitude. However, the Quikscat pass seems to indicate that the center is a fair bit away from 10° N.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The BAMS are much more west,in fact two of them are in the Caribbean sea.

WHXX01 KWBC 290034
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0034 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090829 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090829 0000 090829 1200 090830 0000 090830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 37.9W 12.0N 40.3W 13.1N 42.7W 13.9N 45.5W
BAMD 11.3N 37.9W 11.8N 40.3W 12.7N 42.8W 13.6N 45.2W
BAMM 11.3N 37.9W 12.0N 40.3W 12.9N 42.7W 13.7N 45.2W
LBAR 11.3N 37.9W 12.1N 41.3W 13.0N 44.6W 14.1N 47.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090831 0000 090901 0000 090902 0000 090903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 48.6W 15.3N 54.4W 15.6N 59.2W 16.3N 63.8W
BAMD 14.6N 47.2W 16.1N 50.5W 17.3N 53.1W 18.4N 55.9W
BAMM 14.6N 47.4W 15.8N 51.1W 16.6N 53.8W 17.5N 56.7W
LBAR 15.1N 50.8W 16.5N 55.6W 16.6N 58.2W 14.8N 61.0W
SHIP 53KTS 68KTS 76KTS 81KTS
DSHP 53KTS 68KTS 76KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 37.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 34.0W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 30.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Also, SHIPS are pretty bullish in terms of intensity= 81 knots!

[perk]

The BAMS are much more west,in fact two of them are in the Caribbean sea.

WHXX01 KWBC 290034
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0034 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090829 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090829 0000 090829 1200 090830 0000 090830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 37.9W 12.0N 40.3W 13.1N 42.7W 13.9N 45.5W
BAMD 11.3N 37.9W 11.8N 40.3W 12.7N 42.8W 13.6N 45.2W
BAMM 11.3N 37.9W 12.0N 40.3W 12.9N 42.7W 13.7N 45.2W
LBAR 11.3N 37.9W 12.1N 41.3W 13.0N 44.6W 14.1N 47.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090831 0000 090901 0000 090902 0000 090903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 48.6W 15.3N 54.4W 15.6N 59.2W 16.3N 63.8W
BAMD 14.6N 47.2W 16.1N 50.5W 17.3N 53.1W 18.4N 55.9W
BAMM 14.6N 47.4W 15.8N 51.1W 16.6N 53.8W 17.5N 56.7W
LBAR 15.1N 50.8W 16.5N 55.6W 16.6N 58.2W 14.8N 61.0W
SHIP 53KTS 68KTS 76KTS 81KTS
DSHP 53KTS 68KTS 76KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 37.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 34.0W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 30.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

cycloneye this is what myself and others on this forum was expecting, due to the movement of 94L today.

[lebron23]

is SFWMD down?

[Blown Away]

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 94, 2009082900, , BEST, 0, 113N, 379W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

Two different positions:

SSD dvorak=10.2N 39.3W

Best Track=11.3N-37.9W

11.3N/37.9W is where I would place the center. Notice the convection building on the SE side of 94L. Maybe the E shear is easing a little.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

is SFWMD down?

Yes,and that is why I am posting the Weatherunderground graphic.Dont ask me why LBAR does that.

[Sanibel]

I think the lower level is starting to tighten up.


We know we've seen Bill already in this part of the Atlantic, so my guess is this one is taking longer but will strengthen like Bill.

[Blown Away]

I think the lower level is starting to tighten up.

We know we've seen Bill already in this part of the Atlantic, so my guess is this one is taking longer but will strengthen like Bill.

I agree, I think 94L is starting to consolidate towards the "Best Track" location. Forget that big ball of convection way ahead of 94L.

[Derek Ortt]

It is going to have to slow a bit, I think between its forward speed and the shear it is keeping it from organizing. Once it gets to the SW edge of the ridge I believe it slows and then that is when it organizes, problem is by then it will be far enough west to be a problem for someone!

slow down? Why does this need to slow down when the convection is 200NM west of the center? The convection will only become displaced 500NM west of the center if this slows down

It needs to speed up to reduce the storm relative shear

[vbhoutex]

Good call on the center location. It does seem to be tightening up. Plenty of time to watch it.

[boca]

I wish I could see 94L in motion this computer at work doesn't have java and it is restricted to only certain things. It does look good and its tighter than this morning. If this gets passed 50w at a low latitude the islands might have to be concerned with it.