EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[HURAKAN]

Also needs an increase in convection

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 28 2009

.LOW PRES NEAR 14N98W ANALYZED AT 1008 MB ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
WAS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
HAS BEEN EVIDENT WITH THIS WAVE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SINCE MOVING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. BANDS OF TSTMS
CONTINUE TO FLARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN SEMICIRCLE OVERNIGHT...
AND TRAILS THE LOW OFF TO THE E. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO
TO THE NE IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. 20
TO POSSIBLY 25 KT WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN SEMICIRCLE BASED
ON PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVERNIGHT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT
COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WNW TO NW. HOWEVER...ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND MAY
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF COASTAL MEXICO.

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good but convection needs to increase

[HURAKAN]

Another great image.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Macrocane]

The HWRF has been very bullish with this system on the last few runs. I hope it doesn't intensify too much though Mexico needs the rain.

[cycloneye]

TD later tonight or tommorow morning.


ABPZ20 KNHC 282333
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW
MORNING. THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[clfenwi]

Almost can't imagine advisories not being initiated this evening.

[cycloneye]

Almost can't imagine advisories not being initiated this evening.

Also TS watches posted in that coastline?

[clfenwi]

Almost can't imagine advisories not being initiated this evening.

Also TS watches posted in that coastline?

Could be just far enough out that they wouldn't go with watches right out off the bat. It wouldn't be surprising, though, to see something like a watch from Puerto Vallarta to Aculpulco.

[cycloneye]

First advisory at 8 PM PDT as TD 13-E.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep942009_ep132009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908290032
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 132009.ren

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'd said before that HWRF were bullish, forget it, now they're bullish GFDL and HWRF have a cat 3 hurricane on the coast of Mexico in 48-60 hours. I don't believe that because it has to be a very rapid intensificatioon and conditions are not and won't be that favorable. The SST on the Mexican coast are the warmest on the EPAC and that's a very favorable factor, wind shear is low at this time but will gradually increase in 24 hours and proximity to land could be inhibiting factors. Regardless of the intensity people on the Mexican coast shoulld monitor the progress of this system very carefully.

HWRF 48 hours

GFDL 60 hours

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 290036
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE THIRTEEN (EP132009) 20090829 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090829 0000 090829 1200 090830 0000 090830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 101.4W 14.2N 102.9W 14.5N 104.2W 14.7N 105.7W
BAMD 13.7N 101.4W 14.0N 103.3W 14.5N 105.0W 15.2N 106.3W
BAMM 13.7N 101.4W 14.0N 103.0W 14.5N 104.4W 14.9N 105.7W
LBAR 13.7N 101.4W 14.0N 103.5W 14.7N 105.5W 15.3N 107.6W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 51KTS 62KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 51KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090831 0000 090901 0000 090902 0000 090903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 107.5W 17.0N 111.1W 19.4N 113.6W 22.3N 114.6W
BAMD 16.1N 107.5W 18.7N 110.0W 23.0N 112.4W 27.1N 113.6W
BAMM 15.7N 107.1W 18.2N 110.2W 21.6N 113.2W 24.4N 115.4W
LBAR 15.9N 109.6W 18.3N 113.4W 23.3N 117.8W 27.4N 119.1W
SHIP 70KTS 80KTS 84KTS 73KTS
DSHP 70KTS 80KTS 84KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 101.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 98.9W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 96.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[clfenwi]

Not making any predictions here, just noting this from the 00Z SHIPS output:

Code: Select all

** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942009 INVEST     08/29/09  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  1.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   9.6 Range: 15.2 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  85.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.5
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 136.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  82.4 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  12.7 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.1
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  59.4 Range:  4.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.5
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    51% is   4.5 times the sample mean(11.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    35% is   4.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    28% is   5.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%)


[Macrocane]

So, it seems that Rapid Intensification is very probable. Well, let's get ready, wait and see.

[Iune]

TD 13-E

EP, 13, 2009082900, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1014W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M,

[HURAKAN]

Strong convection

[Chacor]

WTPZ23 KNHC 290233
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 101.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 101.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 101.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.1N 102.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.5N 104.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 35SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.9N 105.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.4N 106.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 20.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 23.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 101.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[Iune]

Ahh, curse of the TCFA's http://www.webcitation.org/5jNapNdnm

[cycloneye]

290240
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2009

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. A 2030 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM THE NAVAL
RESEARCH LABORATORY MONTEREY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDING
FEATURE OVER THE WEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. SUBSEQUENTLY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THIRTEEN-E APPEARS TO BE WITHIN AN
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS
THE WATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES INTENSIFICATION AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AND SIMILAR TO
THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS ICON. A GRADUAL WEAKENING NOTED AT
DAY 5 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER
SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION...280/10. A
MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO
SHOULD STEER THIRTEEN-E MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THROUGH THE
REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND MOVING SHIFTING IT EASTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WHILE INCREASING
THE ITS FORWARD MOTION. THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS ARE
ESSENTIALLY SEPARATED INTO TWO CLUSTERS. THE FIRST CLUSTER CONSISTS
OF THE GFDL/HWRF AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE TVCN CONSENSUS...WITH
BOTH SUGGESTING A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SYSTEM WITH LESS RIDGING TO
THE EAST. THE SECOND CLUSTER CONTAINING THE GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET/ECMWF
RESIDES TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCN. THESE PARTICULAR MODELS INDICATE A
WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A STRONGER LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE
TVCN DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN TWO
MODEL CLUSTERS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 13.8N 101.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 14.1N 102.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 14.5N 104.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 14.9N 105.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 15.4N 106.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 17.5N 109.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 20.5N 112.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 23.5N 114.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN