Tropical Wave north of the Greater Antilles

[vbhoutex]

Oh please interpret that weather stuff for us civilians lol! Honestly-I am curious what it must be like with that blast going through. In fact-we need to hear from weather enthusiasts in Africa!

This city was impacted in the last 24 hours by this system and reported west winds, which is very unusual for a city in the tropics that should normally get east winds except if there is a low pressure at the surface or local effects. Now, local effects typically don't last 12 hours or more. Also, the normal atmospheric pressure worldwide is 1013.25 mb and this city reported at one point 1006 mb, which is quite low. I just posted that information to show how interesting this system is.

Between the sat pics and this information this one now has a good percentage of my interest. However, if it comes off Africa really strong it will likely curve early as opposed to giving us headaches trying to figure out what it is going to do.

[otowntiger]

Yes this system is impressive, but 2 things. One it still has to make it quite a long way across the large continent of Africa. Two, if it emerges off the coast so well organized isn't it likely to re-curve right away?

[Aric Dunn]

No joke that is probably one the most impressive waves i have seen over africa before.. lol if it hold together and is likely going to develop fast when it emerges in 3 days

[Macrocane]

Yes this system is impressive, but 2 things. One it still has to make it quite a long way across the large continent of Africa. Two, if it emerges off the coast so well organized isn't it likely to re-curve right away?

That is the most likely scenario, it will recurve almost right away.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree that it will probably recurve as well....Welcome to the season of the recurves..... I think it's becoming increasingly obvious that any system that hits the USA(if any) will proably originate in the carib or i the gulf...

[Cyclenall]

It's definitely the most impressive of the 2009 Atlantic season. This might be a good opportunity to study a very powerful TW over Africa since there have been suspicions of tropical cyclones forming before hitting the water in some cases. Let's see if the NHC highlights this area while it's still over Africa like they did once in 2007.

Why is everyone saying this is going to recurve very early? If it did it that early, it would recurve right back into Africa or the Canary islands since the ridge would block it from recurving further west. I could understand in the middle of the Atlantic but not before 25W.

[cycloneye]

Will this wave encounter the same demise as 94L is enduring as it hits the water in the next 24 hours?

[otowntiger]

Funny how this wave is already losing steam as it approaches the Atlantic. What would make us think that this system won't do what 94L did? Seemingly favorable conditions and it struggles mightily and no one has a clue. I don't know what would be any different with this one.

[otowntiger]

Will this wave encounter the same demise as 94L is enduring as it hits the water in the next 24 hours?

I say yes. and that should be a good thing except that for us tropical weather enthusiasts quite boring.

[vbhoutex]

It may be "losing steam", meaning the conditions where it is at are not as hospitable as they were earlier, but there is a lot of energy involved in that system already so I think we will need to watch it as it continues its' westward track.

[Sanibel]

I'm guessing the d-min "pulses" will be shorter between dry phases and this one will rebound once it steps offshore. Because we are nearing the season peak where conditions become more favorable.

[Dean4Storms]

One huge impressive looking wave for sure!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html

[otowntiger]

One huge impressive looking wave for sure!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html

Really? There doesn't look like there's much left of it now, at least convection wise. It was impressive 24-48 hours ago, but now not so much.

[Evil Jeremy]

One huge impressive looking wave for sure!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html

Really? There doesn't look like there's much left of it now, at least convection wise. It was impressive 24-48 hours ago, but now not so much.

Its not all about the convection. This wave has curvature. It is already looking like a tropicalish system. It is very, very well organized.

[carolina_73]

This wave has some MAJOR cyclonic turning to it. I am not getting my hopes up though. We have seen waves like this go poof. I have to say this is the best wave to come off Africa since Bill. It is a massive wave and will take a while to get going if it does.

[Sanibel]

Looks like our boy Fred is headed straight to recurve on the high route.

[otowntiger]

LOL! It looks like its already moving wnw. Sure to recurve if its as well developed as it leaves the shore. At least that's my guess.

[ConvergenceZone]

Regardless of whether or not this develops, I still think we will get to the 'G' storm before September is up...

[cycloneye]

Most of the convection is in the water but still the wave axis is in the coast.

[Sanibel]

It emerged much further south than it appeared yesterday.


There's another land spinner behind it.


One of these has to form.