ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

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clfenwi
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#461 Postby clfenwi » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:02 pm

blp wrote:What is up with Gfdl & Hwrf? They have not run since 06z. Did the loose faith in 94l.


Pure speculation, but it could be the case that four storms is the max and 94L is getting bumped by the better rated invests and Danny (two of those Pacific invests, by the way, are having advisories initiated at 11 PM).
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#462 Postby fasterdisaster » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:02 pm

This thing looks miles better than Danny.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#463 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:03 pm

I particularly like the nogaps on this run .. awesome ne motion .. lol

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#464 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:06 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I particularly like the nogaps on this run .. awesome ne motion .. lol

Image




yeah the NOGAPS has been acting squirrely all day.... :lol: remember when we had the AE98 that model was jacked up all the time.... :lol:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#465 Postby Recurve » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:07 pm

Hmm, that is a mess.

Don't know if this is specifically an example of El Nino inhibiting tropical development, but if so, gracias.

Won't rest easy until it's gone though.

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http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/1893/rgbl.jpg
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#466 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:07 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:This thing looks miles better than Danny.

I agree, but it does not have a tight LLC like Danny does. IMO, tonight it is starting to look like a cyclone!
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#467 Postby coriolis » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:10 pm

Stop digging the hole about pro mets and amateurs. Someone is going to fall into it.
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Re:

#468 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:15 pm

coriolis wrote:Stop digging the hole about pro mets and amateurs. Someone is going to fall into it.

which means.... what exactly...

maybe an "Anchor Man" battle between news stations style.. :P
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#469 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:26 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html


Starting to spin up around 38 west
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#470 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:40 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

Nice shape on water vapor
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#471 Postby jinftl » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:50 pm

Lower shear to its west...

Image


TCHP doesn't build at 94L's latitude until west of 50W...

Image
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Re: Re:

#472 Postby coriolis » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:55 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
coriolis wrote:Stop digging the hole about pro mets and amateurs. Someone is going to fall into it.

which means.... what exactly...

maybe an "Anchor Man" battle between news stations style.. :P


Now you're making me do extra work. I never saw an anchor man battle, but the point is that in above posts there was discussion about pros being wrong ... and you know the rest.
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Re: Re:

#473 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:58 pm

coriolis wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
coriolis wrote:Stop digging the hole about pro mets and amateurs. Someone is going to fall into it.

which means.... what exactly...

maybe an "Anchor Man" battle between news stations style.. :P


Now you're making me do extra work. I never saw an anchor man battle, but the point is that in above posts there was discussion about pros being wrong ... and you know the rest.


oh lol .. you never the movie Anchor Man .. hehe .. its hilarious.. :) but yeah i got you ..
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#474 Postby jinftl » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:59 pm

Latest model run...

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#475 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 28, 2009 10:01 pm

The latest.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#476 Postby jinftl » Fri Aug 28, 2009 10:04 pm

NOAA's latest Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability graphic:

Image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
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#477 Postby Night Tide » Fri Aug 28, 2009 10:04 pm

In my amateur, and unprofessional opinion, it looks like a mess.

I'm not worried about this one at all.
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Re:

#478 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Aug 28, 2009 10:12 pm

Night Tide wrote:In my amateur, and unprofessional opinion, it looks like a mess.

I'm not worried about this one at all.

Funny , I am worried more about this one tha any other system thus far this year , its location ,its movement and potential at the near peak of hurricane season to impact the islands and possibly the US.
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Re: Re:

#479 Postby coriolis » Fri Aug 28, 2009 10:17 pm

oh lol .. you never the movie Anchor Man .. hehe .. its hilarious.. :) but yeah i got you ..[/quote]

PM me to explain. Let's not hijack the thread any more.
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Re:

#480 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 28, 2009 10:22 pm

Night Tide wrote:In my amateur, and unprofessional opinion, it looks like a mess.

I'm not worried about this one at all.



you are not noticing the cyclonic turning?...the sustained convection? the low lat? hauling west at 20knts...Ships brings it up to 81knots....Its called TC genesis....they dont hatch a tropical storm..... :lol:
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