ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[ROCK]

I still think the models are not intializing on the correct area. I am still thinking that 10.2N best track from earlier looked right to me.....rather than the 11.2N..hard to tell...really.

[jinftl]

The way it looks right now isn't as important as a couple of things:

1. How far west does this system get? As a rule of thumb, the less developed systems tend to make it further west than those that develop far in the eastern and central atlantic.

2. what are conditions like down the road in terms of being favorable/unfavorable for development? SST increase...and so does TCHP west of 50W. Shear for the time being looks to get lower west of 45W.

[AtlanticWind]

Going out on that old limb, Td by 5pm saturday.

[floridasun78]

In my amateur, and unprofessional opinion, it looks like a mess.

I'm not worried about this one at all.

what invest you looking at ???i donot think is 94l this looking better

[ROCK]

The way it looks right now isn't as important as a couple of things:

1. How far west does this system get? As a rule of thumb, the less developed systems tend to make it further west than those that develop far in the eastern and central atlantic.

2. what are conditions like down the road in terms of being favorable/unfavorable for development? SST increase...and so does TCHP west of 50W. Shear for the time being looks to get lower west of 45W.

I agree JinFL...the BAMMS shows a more carib type threat if 94l stays weak.

safe to say the carib is prime if all else is equal....GOM is a boiling pot of gumbo...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[ROCK]

the 0z GFS rolling in.....moves 94L NW then N at 40W huh??? reminds me of the NOGAP run from earlier.....little zig zag to the north right off the bat. jacked up run if you ask me...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

the 0z GFS rolling in.....moves 94L NW then N at 40W huh??? reminds me of the NOGAP run from earlier.....little zig zag to the north right off the bat. jacked up run if you ask me...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Is almost at 40W so discount.

[gatorcane]

I'm finding a hard time understanding why several models want to show some kind of jump northward. It's not just the GFS. The FSU models are also showing this jump. Looks like 94L continues to head west. It would be nice to see the GFDL in particular but seems that runs have stopped.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The 00Z GFS curves 94L NW already at 72 hours and it is the system is weak. There is obviously a weakness developing prior to the islands it seems -- models are too consistent with it. I can't see anything but a wave out of this should it enter the Caribbean. Actually development may not even happen afterall. Even so should it develop, a curve before the Caribbean seems likely still. Either way not too concerned with this invest, something to watch in the Leewards but the threat potential just seems low at this point to me.

[gatorcane]

I'd say there is a decent chance by tomorrow its back to code yellow, with diminished convection as the reason. It's not looking well tonight. Despite the pretty good conditions it just doesn't seem to be getting its act together. There is also alot of dry air out to the west it will start bumping into.

Obviously given the time of year its something to watch but right now nothing to get concerned about.

[AtlanticWind]

I'd say there is a decent chance by tomorrow its back to code yellow, with diminished convection as the reason. It's not looking well tonight. Despite the pretty good conditions it just doesn't seem to be getting its act together. There is also alot of dry air out to the west it will start bumping into.

Obviously given the time of year its something to watch but right now nothing to get concerned about.

Looks much better to me tonight

[ROCK]

I'm finding a hard time understanding why several models want to show some kind of jump northward. It's not just the GFS. The FSU models are also showing this jump. Looks like 94L continues to head west. It would be nice to see the GFDL in particular but seems that runs have stopped.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The 00Z GFS curves 94L NW already at 72 hours and it is the system is weak. There is obviously a weakness developing prior to the islands it seems -- models are too consistent with it. I can't see anything but a wave out of this should it enter the Caribbean. Actually development may not even happen afterall. Even so should it develop, a curve before the Caribbean seems likely still. Either way not too concerned with this invest, something to watch in the Leewards but the threat potential just seems low at this point to me.

curve before the islands? with that ridge...the run is garbage right from the start. To take a quote from Derek....NEXT....

[Derek Ortt]

Labeled it as invest_08 at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html. Finally decided to put a floater on it

[Blown Away]

I'd say there is a decent chance by tomorrow its back to code yellow, with diminished convection as the reason. It's not looking well tonight. Despite the pretty good conditions it just doesn't seem to be getting its act together. There is also alot of dry air out to the west it will start bumping into.

Obviously given the time of year its something to watch but right now nothing to get concerned about.

Tonight there has been convection developing on the SE side of 94L, which means the E shear is easing a bit.
The center is still very broad but we are seeing the convection starting to tighten up. Over the past few hours there has been more of a cyclonic rotation and maybe a very slight N component.

[Cuber]

if this develops... may I be sentenced to wear the dunce cap for making the "next" post (in addition to the 5K penalty run I will have to do on the Rickenbacker Causeway in the heat of the afternoon)

Labeled it as invest_08 at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html. Finally decided to put a floater on it

Dang it Mr. Ortt .... now I'm really confused guess I'll keep watching and waiting

[perk]

I'd say there is a decent chance by tomorrow its back to code yellow, with diminished convection as the reason. It's not looking well tonight. Despite the pretty good conditions it just doesn't seem to be getting its act together. There is also alot of dry air out to the west it will start bumping into.

Obviously given the time of year its something to watch but right now nothing to get concerned about.

Gatorcane are you looking at the same system as the rest of us.

[Derek Ortt]

Just because I put a floater on it does not mean it will develop.

I already have a penalty run next week for going against the nwhhc outlook. if this develops, we can add the dunce cap to it

[cycloneye]

gatorcane,watch the area between 10-11N and 38-39W.

[blp]

gatorcane,watch the area between 10-11N and 38-39W.

I agree that area is starting to wrap around. I would not be surprised if it gained a little latitude when it wraps around.

Convergence:


Vorticity:

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The system is becoming more symetrical as it faces better conditions... Too bad we are not able to see recent satellite pictures right now..

[floridasun78]

I'd say there is a decent chance by tomorrow its back to code yellow, with diminished convection as the reason. It's not looking well tonight. Despite the pretty good conditions it just doesn't seem to be getting its act together. There is also alot of dry air out to the west it will start bumping into.

Obviously given the time of year its something to watch but right now nothing to get concerned about.

Looks much better to me tonight

me too you can see banding with 94l i not sure what gatorcane looking at