ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Stormcenter]

Fortunately or maybe unfortunately for others on this board all of the
models cannot be on "crack" as some you put it. If they
continue to show 94L missing the Carribean and eventually
moving wnw to nw or even not developing at all then it's
because they are latching on to something I guess many
of us are just missing.

[Derek Ortt]

latest CMC shows a center reformation well to the north with little development. GFS does next to nothing with the feature. Closes it off, but weakens it right back to a wave

[cycloneye]

Here is the 00z CMC that Derek talked about.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[blp]

Maybee I am seeing it wrong, but I see the CMC developing this with a modest ridge over it. I do see the GFS opening it up some, but what catches my eye is the ridge is building in on both models towards the later end of the runs. I don't see any big troughs yet. I guess we need to wait for the EURO to see if it still shows the trough.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 290559
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[fci]

In my amateur, and unprofessional opinion, it looks like a mess.

I'm not worried about this one at all.

The longer this stays intact and does not intensify, the more it concerns me.
24-36 hours ago many thought it would be a TD and a named system quickly which spelled "recurve" to me.
Now that it is getting further west, the more chance it has to be a "player" if it gets its act together.

Not worried at all?
THIS amateur with an unprofessional opinion, will continue to watch it and has " a little" worries about its potential.

[jusjas]

Hi all,

I live in Trinidad and Tobago. What do you all think are the chances of invest 94l
hitting trinidad?

Thanks

[Night Tide]

Most professional meteorologists I've been reading, and listening to don't seem to be too concerned about its threat. Furthermore, if it does develop, I doubt it will be a monster, and I doubt it will hit the Gulf Coast, which is where I am. So, yes, I'm chill about it.

Worried for the Caribbean, and maybe the East Coast? Maybe. But I'm not biting my nails. Time will tell if I'm wrong.

[clfenwi]

29/0615 UTC 10.0N 41.2W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic

[lonelymike]

Hi all,

I live in Trinidad and Tobago. What do you all think are the chances of invest 94l
hitting trinidad?

Thanks

Pretty low at this point. Most of the models show this missing the Carribean well to your North.

[KWT]

The two problems seem to be the easterly shear that has been on this system and perhaps the fact its a little too broad, and therefore its struggling to create one dominant LLC and instead has several centers along the broad low. We shall see whether the western side will develop or not.

[jlauderdal]

Just because I put a floater on it does not mean it will develop.

I already have a penalty run next week for going against the nwhhc outlook. if this develops, we can add the dunce cap to it

a simple posting of a crow picture by you will suffice. the only people that never bust are the people that never share their thoughts about the future. That said, I say this system gets beyond 80 but never makes it to hurricane status.

[carolina_73]

Man i hate El Nino years Easterlies are winning the war this year. Seems Bill just got lucky being at the right place at the right time. This season might just wrap up early.

[apocalypt-flyer]

OMG OMG SEASON CANCELLED FOLKS OMG

[Nimbus]

The morning quickscat will be interesting. The east pole of the circulation looks better defined this morning in the IR imagery but that doesn't mean it will become the dominant center. Some elongated systems stay that way their entire life with neither pole becoming dominant so they never develop. ~40 degrees is still a long way out so there is plenty of time for 94L to ball up and break out of the ITCZ. Mwatkins said he felt that would happen soon enough that 94L would get pulled north of the big islands. I was visualizing the elongated tank tread circulation morphing into a giant tumbleweed that would roll into the Caribbean with a broad shallow low level center. Shallow broad systems typically don't slow down and tighten up till the western Caribbean if at all.

[otowntiger]

wow. This thing looks as bad as it ever has. There is no need to worry about where it will go because it won't be anything by the time it gets there. I say this thing is going poof right before our eyes. There may not be even any naked cloud swirl by the time it gets anywhere near the islands. See ya 94L. Its been real. Its been fun. Its been a huge waste of time. NEXT!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N37W 11N39W 6N41W. A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N39W ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 16N BETWEEN 33W AND 51W.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

GFDL returns again.

06z GFDL

119
WHXX04 KWBC 291115
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 29

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.1 39.9 270./19.0
6 11.3 40.6 281./ 6.9
12 12.0 41.5 309./11.7
18 12.5 42.6 293./11.6
24 13.2 43.6 308./11.9
30 14.0 45.1 299./16.8
36 14.5 46.8 287./17.0
42 15.0 48.4 287./16.1
48 15.4 49.6 287./12.0
54 15.8 50.6 292./10.8
60 16.5 51.4 309./ 9.9
66 16.9 52.3 296./ 9.6
72 17.3 53.1 299./ 8.6
78 18.0 53.4 335./ 7.9
84 18.7 53.9 323./ 8.4
90 19.6 54.3 338./10.0
96 20.5 55.1 316./11.3
102 21.1 56.1 302./11.5
108 21.6 57.2 295./10.7
114 22.0 57.6 311./ 5.7
120 22.6 58.3 309./ 8.9
126 23.0 59.0 300./ 7.4

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to code yellow

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY...WHICH IS BEING ABSORBED BY AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS EXTRATROPICAL LOW...SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1
AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Convection has waned but the spin is very evident at loop.