EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM JIMENA (13E)
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 291445
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009
JIMENA HAS BEEN UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT AND
RECENTLY A SMALL EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BECOME APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SPECIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION AT 1345 UTC FROM TAFB INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM WAS
NEAR 65 KT...AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE SUGGESTING 70
TO 75 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING...WITH VERY WARM SSTS OVER
30C...VERY HIGH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY AND LOW SHEAR. THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS FORECASTING A 95 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 35 KT
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HIGHEST VALUE I HAVE EVER
SEEN. IN ADDITION...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING EITHER
A CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL SHOW CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING...SHOWING A 35-KT INCREASE
FROM THE 1200 UTC SYNOPTIC INTENSITY OF 60 KT. SSTS DECREASE IN THE
LONG-RANGE...AND WEAKENING IS SHOWN AFTER DAY 3.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/08. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO
SHOULD PROVIDE THE STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR
JIMENA...WITH THE HURRICANE LIKELY MAKING A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN A
DAY OR TWO AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DISCREPANCIES IN HOW MUCH THAT RIDGE
WEAKENS DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE GFDL/HWRF SHOW ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO TURN JIMENA
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW...POISING A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA OR WESTERN MEXICO. ALL OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A RIDGE BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND JIMENA
TO CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE
HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THE HWRF/GFDL HAVE
HAD AN EASTWARD BIAS FOR THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...AND THEIR CURRENT
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD WITH TIME. THE NHC
FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE FURTHER WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON...ESPECIALLY IF THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 14.3N 103.2W 70 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.6N 104.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 15.0N 105.7W 95 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 15.6N 106.9W 105 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 16.7N 108.2W 115 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 19.5N 111.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 25.0N 117.0W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
WTPZ43 KNHC 291445
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009
JIMENA HAS BEEN UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT AND
RECENTLY A SMALL EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BECOME APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SPECIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION AT 1345 UTC FROM TAFB INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM WAS
NEAR 65 KT...AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE SUGGESTING 70
TO 75 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING...WITH VERY WARM SSTS OVER
30C...VERY HIGH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY AND LOW SHEAR. THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS FORECASTING A 95 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 35 KT
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HIGHEST VALUE I HAVE EVER
SEEN. IN ADDITION...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING EITHER
A CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL SHOW CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING...SHOWING A 35-KT INCREASE
FROM THE 1200 UTC SYNOPTIC INTENSITY OF 60 KT. SSTS DECREASE IN THE
LONG-RANGE...AND WEAKENING IS SHOWN AFTER DAY 3.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/08. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO
SHOULD PROVIDE THE STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR
JIMENA...WITH THE HURRICANE LIKELY MAKING A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN A
DAY OR TWO AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DISCREPANCIES IN HOW MUCH THAT RIDGE
WEAKENS DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE GFDL/HWRF SHOW ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO TURN JIMENA
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW...POISING A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA OR WESTERN MEXICO. ALL OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A RIDGE BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND JIMENA
TO CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE
HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THE HWRF/GFDL HAVE
HAD AN EASTWARD BIAS FOR THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...AND THEIR CURRENT
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD WITH TIME. THE NHC
FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE FURTHER WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON...ESPECIALLY IF THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 14.3N 103.2W 70 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.6N 104.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 15.0N 105.7W 95 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 15.6N 106.9W 105 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 16.7N 108.2W 115 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 19.5N 111.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 25.0N 117.0W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
0 likes
-
- Category 3
- Posts: 812
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm
Re: EPAC: HURRICANE JIMENA (13E)
Could this one become a category 5? Quite an interesting bomb out.
0 likes
Re: EPAC: HURRICANE JIMENA (13E)
Even the forecaster says that the SHIPS RI index value is the highest he has ever seen. I'm not sure if it will be a cat 5 but if the trend continues it will be very possible, and it will be the first one since Kenna on 2002 (or Ioke on 2006 if you consider CPAC-EPAC as one basin).
0 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 170
- Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:01 pm
-
- Category 3
- Posts: 812
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm
Re: EPAC: HURRICANE JIMENA (13E)
HurricaneRobert wrote:Will there be a recon flight into this?
There wouldn't be a flight unless it threatens Mexico.
0 likes
- neospaceblue
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 112
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2007 3:17 pm
- Location: Newport News, VA
Re: EPAC: HURRICANE JIMENA (13E)
No recon scheduled at this time. One would think that would have to change tomorrow so that they would fly on Monday or Tuesday if it looks like the GFDL/HWRF track scenario is going to pan out. Don't know how much lead time the squadron needs to make the journey out west, though.
NOUS42 KNHC 291345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NTIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SAT 29 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-093
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUT LOOK: POSSIBLE FIXES
NEAR 18N 54W BEGINNING AT 01/1800Z.
4. REMARKS: ALL FLYING ON TROPICAL STORM DANNY
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 29/0700Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
NOUS42 KNHC 291345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NTIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SAT 29 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-093
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUT LOOK: POSSIBLE FIXES
NEAR 18N 54W BEGINNING AT 01/1800Z.
4. REMARKS: ALL FLYING ON TROPICAL STORM DANNY
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 29/0700Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
0 likes
WOW pinhole eye. these systems intensify quickly by the nature of them being small. wouldnt be surprised to see a cat 5 outta this one. this is the kinda hurricane that skips whole catagories on its way up. i really hope it stays offshore of mexico. is it sparsely populated where the cone is on land?
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2165
- Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
- Location: Fairfax, VA
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
Squarethecircle wrote:Does anyone know where I could find the entire SHIPS output for Jimena?
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* JIMENA EP132009 08/29/09 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 60 70 79 87 94 102 104 104 102 98 93 81 67
V (KT) LAND 60 70 79 87 94 102 104 104 102 98 93 81 67
V (KT) LGE mod 60 71 80 89 95 104 106 104 98 88 76 63 49
SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 6 4 3 7 5 14 12 19 17 24
SHEAR DIR 88 126 148 168 192 242 255 267 231 221 233 239 272
SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 29.9 28.8 27.3 25.4 23.4 22.0
POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 167 168 168 168 169 164 153 137 116 95 79
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.5
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 10 11 10 10 8 7 4 6 4
700-500 MB RH 81 79 78 79 76 71 70 68 68 69 67 61 57
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 13 13 13 15 16 17 17 16 14
850 MB ENV VOR 5 16 24 34 25 28 19 14 -2 20 11 25 28
200 MB DIV 67 85 109 85 80 67 26 32 22 54 3 20 -14
LAND (KM) 404 411 402 411 427 442 407 417 297 221 136 142 118
LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.7 17.0 18.6 20.3 22.1 23.7 25.0 25.9
LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.5 104.1 104.8 105.4 106.7 107.9 109.2 110.7 112.0 112.9 113.7 114.3
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 11 10 8 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 73 68 54 53 69 72 50 44 32 2 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 16. 13. 9. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE 5. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 11. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 10. 19. 27. 34. 42. 44. 44. 42. 38. 33. 21. 7.
** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 08/29/09 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 8.7 times the sample mean(11.5%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 95% is 13.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 95% is 19.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 08/29/09 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED
0 likes
Yeah this is going mental, looked impressive as 93L in the Atlantic so the fact it has exploded as it has is probably not as surprising.
Still this is a shoe in major hurricane soon, category-5 really has to be on the cards with the pinhole eye, if its going to do it then with its structure it won't take that long.
Still this is a shoe in major hurricane soon, category-5 really has to be on the cards with the pinhole eye, if its going to do it then with its structure it won't take that long.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2165
- Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
- Location: Fairfax, VA
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests