If you live in the Desert Southwest.......

[M2]

The dry slot is providing us with hot, dry weather again.
Washed the car as no rain is progged here for at least 7 more days.
However, if you (Kahuna/AZ/SEAZSKY have a disturbance rotate in or
enough wind shear, it could be "FUN FUN FUN since her daddy took her
monsoon away...." <apologies to the Beach Boys>

[Stephanie]

The dry slot is providing us with hot, dry weather again.
Washed the car as no rain is progged here for at least 7 more days.
However, if you (Kahuna/AZ/SEAZSKY have a disturbance rotate in or
enough wind shear, it could be "FUN FUN FUN since her daddy took her
monsoon away...." <apologies to the Beach Boys>

LOL!! I'm sure that they will approve!

[MonsoonDude]

what is that suppose to mean huh? apologies to the beach boys"

[MonsoonDude]

oh nevermind, im not from that genre really so i wouldnt know, i did a search on it, and the song matched


Kevin

[Stephanie]

oh nevermind, im not from that genre really so i wouldnt know, i did a search on it, and the song matched


Kevin

Stick around here and you'll get quite a history lesson!

[M2]

what is that suppose to mean huh? apologies to the beach boys"

It means that I changed some of their lyrics (Beach Boys) to
another meaning; "metaphor" is the technical term. For prestine examples
of metaphor, study the writings of William Shakespeare.

"Fear no more the heat o' the sun,
Nor the furious winter's rages;
Thou thy worldly task hast done,
Home art done, and ta'en thy wages:
Golden lads and girls all must,
As chimney-sweepers, come to dust.

Fear no more the frown o' the great;
Thou art past the tyrant's stroke;
Care no more to clothe and eat;
To thee the reed is as the oak:
The Sceptre, Learning, Physic, must
All follow this, and come to dust.

Fear no more the lightning-flash,
Nor the'all-dreaded thunder-stone;
Fear not slander, censure rash;
Thou hast finished joy and moan:
All lovers young, all lovers must
Consign to thee, and come to dust.
No exorciser harm thee!
Nor no witchcraft charm thee!
Ghost unlaid forbear thee!
Nothing ill come near thee!
Quiet consummation have;
And renownèd by thy grave!"

- William Shakespeare

[Stephanie]

Neat M2!

[Aslkahuna]

today is one of those days where reading the models will get you nowhere.
In looking at the ETA-X (04/1200Z) through 84 hours and the GFS through the same time period, they offer slightly different solutions. The ETA forecasts little or no rainfall in SE AZ (or any of AZ FTM) in the 24-84 timeframe while the GFS dumps all over us down here in the same time frame- I haven't looked at the ECMWF but it tends to go along more with the ETA down here than the GFS. Bottom line, a little forecasting intuition is needed here in this situation.

Steve

[weatherlover427]

Knowing those models, that seems typical of them, does it not?

[Aslkahuna]

I don't trust any of the models down here-least of all in the Summer where they have a nasty tendency to miss the fine details that can clobber us big time. I took a further look and this time the European is going along with the GFS, while the UKMET out to 72 hours is more with the ETA-X while NOGAPS is saying moisture? what's that? If we are in a more typical August and not a total loser like August of last year then the break should last 3-6 days which would imply a moisture return around Thursday.

Steve

[weatherlover427]

That's true - you have to be careful in summer when the monsoon is around. :o

[Arizwx]

Hey D. J. -

Remember when (you) first started out as a wx freak?

I do - 59 years ago (no satellites, no
radar, no Internet, no numerical models, etc.).

The "kid" is doing a great (start-up) job.
He'll listen and learn from us "old-timers".

In the meantime, stay out of the CDO!

Stan (aka SEAZSky)

Stan,

I was a Wx Freak when I was Embryonic 51yrs ago!So HELL YES I remember!So does my poor mom!LOL!
'The Kid' claims to be a met and a CEO..My..great credentials!I like this kid!He sounds like an aspiring SuperDude...not unlike Your's Truly!
Not bad not bad at all..just needs to keep up on MicroClimos and lose the 'Desert Southwest' moniker...as we are in the a very difficult and misunderstood CWA to nail the 'Soons'.
Remember..this is the 6th Largest State and with Geo/Topographic/OroGraphic idiosycrises..it's rough as Cowboy Toilet Paper to Prog! ...and remember..Cowboy TP..'won't take crap off of anyone!' :o

Is that so?
Newsflash..WELL BEFORE 5p we were under a FLASH FLOOD WARNING!
Moreover....if YOU plan to ahem,'serve' the state of Arizona...possibly a timely UPDATE might be nice.
Moreover...I read the page you refer to...and BTW...PLEASE LOSE the '2003 Monsoon is Just around the Corner"!IT's BEEN HERE!!
I state again...good luck to you...however...listen and learn!
~El don de Arizwx~

[Stephanie]

I'm sure that he will appreciate any constructive criticism you can offer on his maps DJ. To be a "Superdude" you need to learn from "Superdudes".

[weatherlover427]

Why does everyone here keep dissing Kevin and his webpage?

[Arizwx]

Why does everyone here keep dissing Kevin and his webpage?

No 'dissing' Dude.
Read the text...major 'Kudos' for the effort...we need all the 'young soon dudes and dudettes' we can get!
K dude?It's all cool at the Sunset Grill!Sasparilla on Ice young Wx Sage?

[weatherlover427]

I'd rather have a Dr Pepper, I can't have alcohol.

[Arizwx]

Sasparilla is 'Spanish' for 'Creme Soda' dude!BTW..go to Tombstone some day...belly up to the Bar at the 'Crystal Palace' and oder up one!
It's what the Earp Brothers drank when they were 'On the Wagon'!

[weatherlover427]

Ah I see, then I'll take one of those too! Let's dance for monsoon storms!

[MonsoonDude]

if it means cream soda, then dang, im in for one as thats my favorite drink, i thought Sasparilla was root beer too,lol

[azsnowman]

I finished up the month of July with 5.49" of rain..that's 1.31" below normal for me at my location........let's hope like hades that we can get Augusts rains up and running SOON!

Dennis