ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

some of the shear to the west is merely the western edge of the anti-cyclone

That's a quite significant upper trof to its west, though. I'm looping the wv imagery and it does appear to be moving off to the west, slowly. May not get out of the way soon enough to prevent significant impact, though.

[Macrocane]

Looking pretty good, so August may end with 5 named storms and with an ACE index of almost 30 that's not below normal

[gatorcane]

Has anybody noticed that the ECMWF is backing way off on the Eastern CONUS perma-trough in the extended range? It looks like for two runs now, it is going with a zonal flow across the CONUS and some ridging in the Western Atlantic. Previous runs showed the perma-trough hanging around for several days in the extended range. That would have been a shoe-in for a recurve prior to the CONUS.

Loop of 00Z H5 flow:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

Looks like the GFS is also not showing any significant trough either in the 7-10 day range.

[ronjon]

yeah, gc, ECM showing rising 500 mb heights in the 7-10 day range. The euro keeps it a weak system but drags it though the greater antilles into the S bahamas. Might get real interesting with this system over the next week.

[gatorcane]

Certainly now looks to me like it could get pretty close to the NE Leewards and Puerto Rico, alot closer than Bill. I would have thought some kind of definite WNW or NW motion would be starting already. Thoughts?

[KWT]

I'm estimating 12.1N/47.1W. Still consolidating. I think it qualifies for TD now. Decent banding, though convection lacking a bit.

Yeah I think thats probably where the circulation is as well ,the big question is now how much of a WNW/NW motion it picks up and also whether or not the ridge builds in quickly enough and far enough east for this system to get bent back west?

[KWT]

Yeah Gatorcane I've mentioned it a little while ago, the ECM is really toning down any weakness in the 5-7 day period and eventually replaces that with a weak Bermuda high that sits in the western Atlantic and eastern US. Doesn't look like a long term feature but IF the timing is right and IF the model is right (As the GFS isn't nearly as keen...) then a bend back west would be quite possible.

[wxman57]

Moved a floater over to 94L now to get a better look. New estimate of center is 12.5N/47.4W. Could be a mid-level rotation there, with the LLC a bit south. Hard to tell.

[Derek Ortt]

how far north will the system be before the "west" bend occurs. I have my suspicions that the west bend will be from a NNW track to a NW track

[Sanibel]

Looks ready to spin up now.


Has lifted a little since last night.


Big potential downstream from climatology.

[KWT]

Very hard to call Derek of course this may not even happen yet and the ECM cold just as easily back away from it again but there does seem to be some support for the idea.

Still this part of the Atlantic that 94L is in does sometimes see systems lift NW only to bend back westwards, the most recent one probably being Frances 2004.

Could well end up like Dora 1964...not sure its going to be a landfall risk as its far too early but general track for now may not be that different.

[Derek Ortt]

it wont matter for the EC if the high builds in if this is at 28N when it turns NW. The high building back in may just mean this misses Bermuda on a track similar to Bill

[KWT]

Wxman57, at least now we have a decent circulation to track, we should get a far better idea of its actual track motion, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the center isn't quite totally stacked as this is stil la developing a system.

Sanibel, yeah does need to be watched, the key benchmark IMO is 20/60...if it reaches that and if the models are still trying to develop at least some sort of ridge then its going to need careful watching.

Still some way to go yet mind you.

[jlauderdal]

code red alert, derek is fighting the clock now bigtime

and my past 80 no hurricane status ever for this system looks even worse

[wxman57]

One other thing. Long-range projections (beyond 5 days) indicate a very weak high to its north once it passes the NE Caribbean. I don't see anything to drive it westward toward the East U.S. Coast. Could be a threat to Bermuda, or may even pass east of Bermuda.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

One other thing. Long-range projections (beyond 5 days) indicate a very weak high to its north once it passes the NE Caribbean. I don't see anything to drive it westward toward the East U.S. Coast. Could be a threat to Bermuda, or may even pass east of Bermuda.

I thought some of the models were developing a fairly strong ridge over the western atlantic and building it westward in time?

[Gustywind]

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm thinking this is the year of the East Coast 'cane. Lots of near misses, and an eventual landfall or two on the seaboard. I just don't see the pattern changing prior to the end of September. Just my own personal feelings, not based on any hard long range science.

[Derek Ortt]

have to agree with wxman57 here. Though I would be surprised if this actually went east of Bermuda. However, too soon to say if this will strike Bermuda